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BigCecil

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Everything posted by BigCecil

  1. BigCecil
    Hi Bud, welcome to the Board. My view on this is that these are all MLB players who took a very long road of success and failure at many levels of ball to get to where they are. A hitting coach can help identify or tweak issues and approach, but they have no authority to direct an approach or swing. Nor should they. So their incremental influence is actually fairly minimal. MLB players have so much info and know themselves and their swings well. Its what puts food on their families tables. Its actually a matter of preference. If you polled the players in confidence a certain percentage would like Martinez, and others would prefer another they had in the past, or whatever. Sometimes they click, sometimes they don't. It really doesn't make that much difference at the MLB level. The team has much bigger challenges to deal with.
  2. BigCecil
    wRC+ 115. I’ll take the under on 105 for whole season. With his D if he can be league average, still 3+ WAR value.
  3. BigCecil
    Funny you say that, I gave Shappy a dingle to congratulate him on this matter as well, and he said the same.
  4. BigCecil
    Didn’t like the IKF signing much but appreciating his D and bat to ball skills a lot more than I thought I would. He has been a good add so far and a million miles from being our issue.
  5. BigCecil
    I agree with both of you on ^. There was a paradigm shift in the FA market valuations last off season. Makes it more of a crap shoot. I was just noodling it around in my head this am. But until we gets some “actuals” in the current market everyone is just guessing out their ars.
  6. BigCecil
    Its easy to get into transaction by transaction arguments, but this post nails the real crux of the issue and current challenge/opportunity.
  7. BigCecil
    Kooch and Jano costing us $17.2M AAV in 2024. Kooch has a 2.33 FIP and 1.4 WAR in '24. Making the big assumption he and Jano continue to perform, what do they cost us or their next team (s)? Jano is scorching hot over performing and will come back down to earth. 200 wRC+ Kooch is a Boras client so we aren't getting any adopted new home town discount because of Pete Walker, or any of that nonsense the media likes to talk about. $28-30M AAV minimum 3 year term combined?
  8. BigCecil
    Listening to your good friend Jim Bowden now JD Bunkis show on 590 on what do you do about Shatkins and are they are the people to lead the next chapter. His pre season prognostications on the Jays so far have been mostly spot on. Predicted this start etc. "Its time to blow up. Farms too weak and current team can't get it done. So you are stuck with what you have - you don't have enough farm prospects or payroll room to make it better. The drafting and development record way too poor. Why? This team needs change. " (paraphrasing some, but thats the essence of it)
  9. BigCecil
    I agree on the watch-ability of the this team construction. I felt same about '23 and I really love seeing great D. But its why you can't look at a list of transactions to evaluate the last 8/9 years: Semien 1 year deal good Tanner Roark FA deal bad Gausman FA deal good Springer FA deal bad Belt 1 year deal good Morales 3 year deal bad Hound 3 FA year deal - jury still out etc etc. Its a very long list now. Generally speaking we have a good overall track record on this. The biggest challenge with roster construction now is the now long 8/9 year record on drafting and development - the body of work. It leaves us with a large payroll and not a lot of room to move, to your earlier post.
  10. BigCecil
    Good post. Agree with all of it. Only question for me is business clinical. Do we need more unbiased, fresh, objective leadership to handle the next couple years transition from the Bo and Vlad era, whatever that may look like. It’s my view we do. That’s not an indictment against this FO. The debate about their record is an ancillary distraction, but it does speak to who can best lead this chapter. All the past is the past. We are where we are now. Focus needs to be what we do about it and who should lead development of that strategy. How this year goes rolling into the deadline is material.
  11. BigCecil
    How much fun is Teo having in LA? Just hit his 10th HR. Batting 4th. wRC+ 142 Making $20M ARO this year plus deferrals.
  12. BigCecil
    Jays can get to 87 wins if they play .560 ball from here on in. 125 games left. Far from impossible. Not probable. They need to get on a roll stat. Between here and the deadline is critical as it will determine if buyers or potentially sellers.
  13. BigCecil
    He has been solid but SSS start this year its been rough. 4.45 FIP and xERA over 8.00 K/9 is 7 Skewed from bad start coming back from IL so hopefully blip. Bent but didn't break today.
  14. BigCecil
    Romano bent but didn't break. Phew! Nice catch to end it by Vlad and a great start by Hound. Just enough offense. W!!
  15. BigCecil
    Nice play by Bo. Good positioning. That could have been bad if it got through. Off the bat for sure I thought it was.
  16. BigCecil
    He has been total s*** so far. Neg WAR. Maybe its opposite year for him. Last year he tore up April and sucked most of the rest of the season. Somehow ended up worth 3 WAR all said and done with a 110 wRC+ Maybe he does the opposite this year. Its a long season.
  17. BigCecil
    Varsho getting his BBs even on the days he isn't barreling anything. BB rate up 4% in '24 Vlad continues to be a singles machine, and cant hit high V.
  18. BigCecil
    IKF can pick it but he is closing in on his career wRC+ after hot start, now @ 86
  19. BigCecil
    Bo gets 92 FB middle middle and slaps it into RF. We'' take it but.... Schneider just keeps hitting.
  20. BigCecil
    Nola has been mediocre this year with a 4.44 FIP. His avg FB down almost 2 MPH. Was listening to Phillies broadcast. Concern about the 7/172 deal through 2030.
  21. BigCecil
    Springer has hit like s*** but nobody can say he hasn't played hard and well in RF. That was a nice play.
  22. BigCecil
    I am going to send this to my son - 15 playing 18U- pretty solid player but work in progress playing on full size field and park first year. So much good here.
  23. BigCecil
    Yumi good but hurt Kooch very good Berrios good but lucky. xERA 4.87 Gausman coming back looking better. FIP down to 3.65 Hound - Meh - Work in progress The rest suck Does that help?
  24. BigCecil
    The tale of two Sniders/Schneiders: We were all peeing ourselves with excitement over 1st rounder 14th pick overall Travis Snider and his awesome power waiting to come up and he absolutely flopped. Davis Schneider 28th round with no expectations, and all this kid does is make s*** happen and play hard. 146 wRC+. Prospects...
  25. BigCecil
    Exactly. We mused about how in the worse case scenario we could become the White Sox with all that young talent in MLB and all the expectations. They failed. I don't think we are there, but glossing over the situation or blaming employees does not help. We aren't the only team to have players not pan out or get hurt, suspended or whatever. The FO is paid well to deal with variables, which occur in the baseball business and any other, and when the sample size is 8/9 years that is material.
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