BigCecil

Thats the correct question. Issue is it will happen through osmosis anyway. Kendres Morales, Grichuk and Tanner Roark only kept so many watching Jays TV and coming to the RC. If the product is mediocre people will party where beer isn't $15 a can. I know for certain Rogers Board are having some very difficult discussions right now about what to do, and nobody is very happy.

Fair point. The price of pitching has increased. His 3/36 deal price has gone up and it wasn't a steal at that, due to '22 results. So far over term he has been worth net 3.3 WAR. Not bad. If we are in semi rebuild not really much point. There is some risk he regresses to more like 2nd half of '21 or '22 to consider as well.

From a business and OTF performance perspective, if Shatkins were fired today after 8/9 years what is the legacy they leave for the next FO 2025 team: • The back end of Springer, Gausman, Berrios and Hound Free Agent deals. No Kooch. Yariel. Mixed bag of value but none will appreciate hereon in. Maybe Yariel but thats a wildcard. • A poor record of drafting and development. • Significant number of prospect assets dealt to produce the 2024 roster construction and past teams. The cost to attain Chappy etc - now gone. • Devalued Bo and Vlad assets – no further development advancement since 2021. • 3 years of 91, 92 ,89 Win teams. These teams were 9, 7, 12 games behind the AL East Division leaders respectively. • Luxury Tax payroll – That’s positive, if it produce results. Oldest line up and rotation in AL East Division. • No Division titles, no playoff game or series wins in wildcard era. • A 20th ranked farm. Keeping it from 30th are Ricky and Orelvis. Ricky is a long way from a MLB rotation. Orelvis may be a DH/1B. • A couple years of Varsho. Schneider. Clement. • Nate Pearson and Alek Manoah. • Improved development facilities. • A catcher of diminished value in Kirk. No Jano or Moreno. • Renovated stadium. I don’t want them gone because I want heads on a pike. I want a clear eyed clinical analysis that is unbiased and objective coming in to handle this critical period of the end of the “Bo & Vlad” era. I am not worried that a new FO could not outperform this duo in both financial and on the field results metrics. Their record is a C minus at best IMO.

Berrios gets POTM and most of the attention it feels like, but Kooch has actually been the better arm and worth about 3 times the WAR. Has to be an extension negotiation candidate.

Fair. Well I hope he tests our theories of the case for another team, cause even if he sustains a 125 bat, he just is not a good SS. At least we are really punishing the ball tonight.

wrong in what way? He has elite bat to ball skills but high chase, low BB BABIP reliance is hard to maintain. I think he will hit this year. '22 showed us how hot he can get for sustained periods after struggling. I just don't think he will sustain his 125-130 wRC+ career into his 30s with his approach.

I agree 100% the decline will come hard and fast for his approach when it comes, but I will be in disbelief if it happens now at 26. 78% of the season left.

BTS loves the "Plague on Both Your Houses" takes, but usually he is only really targeting one House.

Hand had a 4.34 FIP for the Nats in 2021 when we got him. His K/9 and BB/9 per were just under 9 and 4 respectively. His was stale dated on his best days in high leverage, and we kept throwing him out there like he was an elite back end arm. Whats wild is he only pitched 9 innings for us but it sure seemed like he did a lot of damage in that short time LOL. He did get a bit better for the Mets (his 3rd '21 team) once we turfed him, and he wasn't bad in 2022 either although he wasnt used in high leverage. He was middle inning guy.

Anyone have any real intel on Alberta boy Adam Macko we got with Swanson for Teo? I looked at his AA numbers - high BB rate 3.64 FIP. V? Stuff?

There is/was a fair argument to make that Green deal. As for 2021 I was on your side on that one. Chatwood and Hand etc just didn't cut it. I never bought the "learning experience" year post mortem. It was just a waste of talent. Baseball isn't linear year to year. Sometimes you have to put more of your chips in. Berrios was a big add - Silver Fox and Cimber helped bridge- but they stopped there when the pen needed real late inning leverage help, not the Hand.

Time will tell. No debate we need him know and need him to be good. I don't know how many times this board has discussed the volatility of pen arms and the risk of spending a large portion of available payroll on them. In 2021 there was endless discussion about why the FO was right not to over invest in the pen. Ideally we are internally developing pen arms from the minors - failed prospect starters etc who are more effective with less innings and being able to reduce the pitch repertoire they need for shorter outings. Romano and Mayza kind of fit that mould. Just need more.

22% of this season is done bud. He is a pen arm that cost $11M who we looked at for 5 weeks coming off TJ. Guys who liked the deal said he was a 1.5 WAR arm. Guys who didn't like the deal said the IL and stuff risk made him too expensive. He only has 6 IP....cause he has been on the IL. I didn't like the deal. Its not dunking. Its not personal...just business. The guy was great for the NYY. If all goes well health and stuff wise he does have time to be worth it. I would take a $ bet that he won't be.

I am not allowing myself to believe much in my Bruins yet after 1st round last season. But last night was encouraging. Have a Box for Oilers game next Tuesday heading up to Edm. Place should be going off. The Oil fans are loud. Watching McJesus is worth price of admission alone.

LOL. Well now that we have signed Aaron Sanchez and Dave Steib to minor league deals help is on the way and things are looking up.

Ya. Well part of my current view is my personal bias coloring my perception of the situation. I felt Ross should have gone this off season and the skid has only exacerbated that as we stare down big decisions. You are correct if we were playing .660 ball most of this would not be being said about the team. But they aren’t. Still, the ownership won’t move fast on anything I agree. And there are defensible legit reasons for that. Panic and inaction are two bad things we should all want to avoid.

Simeon Woods Richardson (23), one of the two top prospects at the time that we traded for Berrios, is off to a good start with the Twins pitching to a 1.78 FIP 1.77 ERA and 10k/9 over his first 21 IP SSS. 0.5 WAR.

Caves lol. You have an AA fetish and seem completely obsessed with him. As a member of the Shatkinite Cult you appear triggered ^. Its just reality neither of them were perfect. But you need to finally let AA go and move into 2024. Also, the Green signing no bueno.

Term, I think you bring up AA more than anyone. Who gives a f***? He gone. Its 2024. - As far extensions the ones he did give Edwin and Jose were under market steals in TOR - His long term deals with Albies and Acuna Jr are steals. - The 2015 team was old. The 2024 team is the oldest line up and rotation in the Division. - He let 11.3 WAR walk at 1B and SS (sound familiar) after winning the WS ring in Swanson and Freeman. No extensions. Then they won 100 games the next year. Yet you are sooooooooo worried he would have given Vlad 12/350.

Yep. Chicken s*** or TV dinners. They are volatile. Never liked giving Green $11M on that option coming off TJ for that reason. Thought there were better bets we could make for that $.

Fair. Filling in a roster competently with short term deals of value is a skill and he has had some success - Semien, Ray, Belt, KK (23), JT etc. so far. Do I want to have a predominantly FA rotation? No, but in the absence of successful arms development (which is a legit criticism) Gausman, Berrios and Kooch on a cost/WAR basis are or should be good value all said and done on their current deals. '22 was ugly for Berrios and Kooch but they have rebounded. Gausman is already pretty much into house money. Jury is still out on the Hound as he only begun year 2 of 3, and he hasn't been great. I criticize Atkins, but I also try to give him props where due. Most of these deals look better now given the cost of pitching on the market increasing since the deals were signed. No FO bats .1000 in this game with the risks.

Brownie19 makes "the devil you know" argument with Ross and its a fair one in my view. If we do hire a dud, it makes a tough situation worse. OTOH I think ownership and or Shapiro needs to be quietly canvassing options. Leaving people at the helm who have inherent biases about assets etc developed over the last 9 years to navigate the next couple years is not ideal. I think the situation requires more detached, clinical business analysis and decision making at this point.

We could do worse than Atkins. He made some very good moves. He is adept at 1 year deals and he signed an entire rotation to FA deals. One could argue thats both good and also not sustainable. Be nice to see more development internally. He also had a huge payroll and wildcard era support in making us a playoff contender. Its not like we won a division title. Still, I agree lots of teams spend a lot and suck ass. We have been reasonably competitive. Props for that. My main desire now is to bring very clinical objective decision making to what we do next over the next 2 years and Ross is not the guy for that IMO.

I really hope not. Its always more dire than it seems in a skid like this. But I don't think its hyperbole to acknowledge that big decisions are now here. Hey, if ATL can win 100 games the season after winning the ring and letting Freeman & Swanson walk (11.3 WAR combined), we need to be ok with moving Bo and Vlad (and anyone else) as soon as and if the deals makes sense. Playoff contention probability this season lowers game by game, as does the value of some our assets. On others assets we have to hope they have positive regression and increase their value. Bo, Vlad, Kirk and Springer could not have engineered less value right now, if that was their actual objective.

Yes, we have the banner to celebrate for all time the kick off of Jays elite pitching and D era wildcard series. Where we got outpitched and outhit by MINN scoring 1 run in 18 innings, and eliminated in 2 games. A victim of the playoff "randomness" crap shoot again.