Kikuchi's Savant ratings are garbage and most of his expected stats aren't great. Career numbers of a 4.97 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.62 SIERA. Don't understand the fascination and I don't want the Jays to try anything more than a one-year deal for him.
Something like $30M over three can obviously go very right if they fix him but the risk of having $10M tied up in someone who could be another Tanner Roark is enough for me to want them to stay away. Shapiro already said the Jays aren't going to approach the luxury tax threshold and if we want them to pick up another impact player this winter, they'll be getting very close to that threshold in 2023 and beyond.
$10-15M AAV for a guy like Kikuchi looks fine right now but it'll look a lot bigger in a payroll crunch.