KingKat

Goins isn't really a bat, just a glove.

For what little it's worth, I think Lawrie os the kind of guy who needs to fail on his own before he makes adjustment but his commitment to baseball and to his own success is such that I have no doubt that he will make them. We've already seen him quiet things down considerably at the plate and become a little less gung-ho on the field. We may look back on that camera bay fall as a turning point for him. Short term (probably excruciating) pain for long term gain if you will. Difficult baseball players, especially white ones, often get dubbed with the "he just loves the game too much" cliché but I really buy it when it comes to Lawrie. I really do think his intensity comes from genuine passion for baseball (well that and excessive Red Bull consomption). Elite offensive productions probably isn't in the cards but steadier production and consistent overall value is something I expect and look forward to.

That's a legitimate fear but it seems to have been factored into the cost. I like the deal.

The chronyism of it is definitely a turn off. Mottola is one of the game's up and coming hitting coaches and he deserved a shot to coach all the players. Seems lame of Gibby to insist on bringing in "his guy" but in the end, the hitting philosophy will probably be fairly similar anyways.

Are you here all week?

Nice pic.

If Stroman doesn't get a 50 game suspension, is he really that far behind those guys in his development?

Stoeten hasn't really changed that much. He used to be someone who defended Ricciardi against the criticism from the fans and the media and now he defends AA from criticism from the fans. He was a counter-culture guy before because the mainstream media hated Ricciardi and he didn't. What's changed is how the mainstream media refuses to criticize Anthopoulos the way they criticized Ricciardi. Stoeten has defended both. Other than Wilner, he's probably the only one whose attitude has remained basically the same to the two GMs.

I gutted my farm so no surprise that I'm not in the top 75. I still landed 4 in the HR list though. I'll take that.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/9/27/4775038/minor-league-ball-top-75-prospects-end-of-season-update 1) Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins. 2) Xander Bogaerts , SS, Boston Red Sox. 3) Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins. 4) Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners. 5) Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks. 6) Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros. 7) Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians. 8) Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs. 9) George Springer, OF, Houston Astros. 10) Oscar Taveras , OF, St. Louis Cardinals. 11) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets. 12) Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates. 13) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds. 14) Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals. 15) Addison Russell, SS, Oakland Athletics. 16) Jonathan Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies. 17) Kyle Zimmer, RHP, Kansas City Royals. 18) Nick Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers. 19) Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs. 20) Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros. 21) Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates. 22) Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs. 23) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles. 24) Travis D'Arnaud, C, New York Mets. 25) Yordano Ventura, RHP, Kansas City Royals. 26) Maikel Franco, 1B-3B, Philadelphia Phillies. 27) Jorge Soler , OF, Chicago Cubs. 28) Matt Wisler, RHP, San Diego Padres. 29) Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates. 30) Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians. 31) Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals. 32) Rougned Odor, INF, Texas Rangers. 33) Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins. 34) Garin Cecchini, 3B, Boston Red Sox. 35) Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers. 36) Colin Moran, 3B, Miami Marlins. 37) Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Houston Astros. 38) Andrew Heaney, LHP, Miami Marlins. 39) Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates. 40) Eddie Butler, RHP, Colorado Rockies. 41) C.J. Edwards, RHP, Chicago Cubs. 42) Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees. 43) Lance McCullers, RHP, Houston Astros. 44) Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox. 45) Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers. 46) Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds. 47) Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals. 48) Kyle Crick, RHP, San Francisco Giants. 49) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays. 50) Rafael Montero, RHP, New York Mets. 51) Alen Hanson, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates. 52) J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies. 53) Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins. 54) Henry Owens, LHP, Boston Red Sox. 55) Miguel Almonte, RHP, Kansas City Royals. 56) Max Fried, LHP, San Diego Padres. 57) Phillip Ervin, OF, Cincinnati Reds. 58) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, Boston Red Sox. 59) Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres. 60) Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves. 61) Reese McGuire, C, Pittsburgh Pirates. 62) Raul Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals. 63) Jesse Biddle, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies. 64) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays. 65) Eddie Rosario, 2B, Minnesota Twins. 66) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays. 67) Erik Johnson, RHP, Chicago White Sox. 68) A.J. Cole, RHP, Washington Nationals. 69) Clayton Blackburn, RHP, San Francisco Giants. 70) Arismendy Alcantara, SS, Chicago Cubs. 71) Zach Lee, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers. 72) Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers. 73) Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros. 74) Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians. 75) James Paxton, LHP, Seattle Mariners. ??) Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners. Wild guess given his apparent labrum injury. HONORABLE MENTION: Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers; Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox; Mookie Betts, 2B, Red Sox; Greg Bird, 1B, Yankees; Michael Choice, OF, Athletics; Alex Colome, RHP, Rays; David Dahl, OF, Rockies; Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks; Rafael De Paula, RHP, Yankees; Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros; Hunter Dozier, INF, Royals; Edwin Escobar, LHP, Giants; Wilmer Flores, INF, Mets; Rey Fuentes, OF, Padres; Joey Gallo, 3B, Rangers; Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Rays; Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles; Rosell Herrera, INF, Rockies; Luke Jackson, RHP, Rangers; Pierce Johnson, RHP, Cubs; Nick Kingham, RHP, Pirates; Jake Marisnick, OF, Marlins; Steven Matz, LHP, Mets; Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Brewers; Chris Owings, SS, Diamondbacks; Kyle Parker, OF, Rockies; D.J. Peterson, 3B, Mariners; Jace Peterson, SS, San Diego Padres; Josmil Pinto, C, Twins; Kevin Plawecki, C, Mets; Cesar Puello, OF, Mets; Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Orioles; Rio Ruiz, 3B, Astros; Jonathan Schoop, INF, Baltimore Orioles; Marcus Semien, INF, White Sox; Devon Travis, 2B, Tigers; Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Cubs; Allen Webster, RHP, Red Sox; Mason Williams, OF, Yankees; Nick Williams, OF, Rangers; Jesse Winker, OF, Reds.

Trading Lawrie opens up such a huge hole that I can't see it happening. AA has made some bad trades but all with the idea of adding to the team not just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Rasmus on the other hand is going to get expensive soon and Gose should be able to at least play CF which makes CF as close to a position of depth as the Jays had. Rasmus, some of the relievers, Hutchison or Morrow: those are the only guys I think AA would sacrifice from the Major League team and you have to figure his first choice will be to sell his remaining name prospects, Sanchez, Stroman.

Well that's the thing. It's not about putting together a fair offer. It's about putting together an offer that in the Rays' eyes surpasses what anyone else can offer. The former is possible, the latter is unlikely without a top prospect to offer.

That's a good point. Jays may not even be in the running. There's not a lot of surplus part to to move. What would a pie in the sky package from the Jays look like? One of Santos/Janssen + one of Gose/Rasmus + Morrow + one of Sanchez/Stroman? Do you accept that if you're the Rays or would you rather deal with a team that has big time prospects

Do you expect Price to continue to perform well like Shields did or are you expecting a drop off (I realize that park factors, team defense and strength of schedule can't be accounted for in this prediction but I'm curious about what your general expectation for him going forward is)?

This is what I was trying to argue ealier but you put it much more succintly. Brett Lawrie can make three amazing, run saving, limit of the fielding range plays in a game. He won't make three of those a week much less three per game over a full season. That's why it's pretty easy for defensive value to be inflated in a small sample.

This is wrong although it is a pervasive misunderstanding. A hitter's BABIP is largely determined by the quality of the contact the hitter makes not just by luck. Luck is a factor in small sample size but over time the BABIP will normalize not to league average but to the quality of a hitter's contact (there are other complicating factors such as the way BABIP handles homeruns but basically BABIP is hitter specific). A pitcher's BABIP is much more luck driven though not necessarily completely luck driven (some exceptional pitchers such as Mariano Rivera due seem to have an ability to limit the quality of the contact they give up). Except for Rivera type outliers, pitchers BABIP will normalize to league average for the type of contact they give up (ground ball or fly ball). Hitter's BABIP normalizes to the hitter's own BABIP not to the leagues. Expecting hitter's BABIP to normalize the way pitcher's BABIP does is the most persistent faux-sabermetric myth out there and a staple of terrible fantasy advice.

He just doesn't have the fastball velocity he used to. His fastball lived above 95 last year and now he only hits that sporadically. The drop in velocity is the biggest of his career. That being said, his K/BB was better than ever so as NorthOf49 says, he does seem to have made up for it with better command (career low walk rate). He's certainly not the same as he was before but he's not necessarily less of an ace. By lowering the walks, he's maintained basically the same K-BB/9 as last year. I guess what I'm saying is I don't know. I started this reply wanting dismiss this season as a fluke for a pitcher with declining skills but maybe it isn't. Can you fluke your way into a career best K/BB? If your K-BB/9 is the same, doesn't that make you essentially the same ace pitcher you were last year? Maybe, his drop in velocity is somewhat intentional. Perhaps he's dialing down in order to better hit his spots (which would probably help him benefit more from Molina's framing). Maybe there's nothing to be afraid of?

You think AA is going to deal for Price? He really shouldn't but I could see AA tricking himself into thinking he's still an ace.

I love that you called his drinks of choice "cocktails". It gives me a mental image of him drowning his sorrows in a mai-tai after the game.

Defense isn't a constant. Players do have good and bad runs on defense but there are plays that some players simply can't make. Goins can make good plays. He may also provide more misplays over a full season but it's not a stretch to conclude he is a good defender even if you need a much larger sample to determine just how good. As I posted above, the opportunity to provide defensive value isn't distributed evenly over a season no matter how good your are defensively. That's the fishy part of his sample for me. Not that he's not as good as he looked (I'm willing to believe that he is) more that he won't possibly provide as much value over a larger sample.

You can convert an inordinate number of difficult plays over a small sample (plays that just don't come up with the same frequency over a full season). It's not the ability that warps the sample (clearly the ability is there), it's the type of plays that warp the sample. He saved an exceptional amount of runs over his small sample. It simply won't be possible for him to provide that kind of value over a full season (unless as has been stated, he's the best defender of all time).

I would think so but I may also trade the pick sometime after the roster cut-off and before the draft. This was a good time to convert assets into picks and free up a roster spot. Depending on my team needs I may keep the pick or convert it back into a roster player. If I do keep the pick, I certainly won't mind selecting at that part of the draft. That should be the part of the draft where attention starts turning away from the new draftees and towards break out players. That's a good place to be picking especially with a deep draft class coming up.

This article has a quote from Hayhurst: http://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/david-price-nerds-dirk-hayhurst-tom-verducci/206270 “This is the playoffs, you can’t take any chances. He was out there past his prime. He should’ve come out sooner.” If that's the worst of it...

Price probably had no idea was they even said. It's not like he was watching on TV. Athletes go off about stuff they didn't read/hear/see all the time. Apparently, Dirk critiqued a pitch selection that Verducci defended and Price is calling everyone nerd like he's a jock in a high school movie. http://www.awfulannouncing.com/2013/october/tampa-bay-s-david-price-calls-out-tbs-nerds.html

Just sent Marco Estrada and my 5th rounder to War Puigs for the 24th pick. It's confirmed on the ProBoard.