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Nexii

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Everything posted by Nexii

  1. Nexii
    I wouldn't count on Vlad getting much better at 1B though. He's been there long enough. Maybe they try him in corner OF since he's an average speed runner. That being said, he's worth another 0.5-1 WAR as a full time DH. That's one kind of weird thing about WAR. If you get stuck in a position that you're not great at, you can end up with a WAR that's much worse than your baseline. IKF was worth more as a 3B than as superutility for example
  2. Nexii
    Fangraphs, sort by defense
  3. Nexii
    Vlad's defense has been pretty bad. His WAR adjustment is worse than Ohtani who has been a full time DH. In fact the worst defensive adjustment of any player. Really he should just be playing DH for the Jays so they can gain some defensive 1B value Though, I'd still resign him anyways. He's got fan appeal
  4. Nexii
    Adames would be around 6/150 I'd guess. Maybe some desperate team goes 7/175. Leaves like 20-25M for 3 mid relievers or 2 upper calibre. Jays are a rich team with a huge market. I don't see a world where they don't spend up to the luxury tax in 2025. Will it be enough, probably not, but a .500 team is more watchable at least We lack that one young superstar to get excited about. Lots of 2-3 WAR guys is not the worst thing, but its kind of a boring team
  5. Nexii
    Selling FAs at the deadline as the Jays did this year is a good play. There are more buyers than sellers now thanks to WC2/WC3 slots. And all contenders are buying because you really want that DIV1/DIV2 bye slot At this point in the season there are 8 AL teams in contention, 7 out of contention. NL teams you can say 9 in contention and 6 out of contention (being kind to the Pirates).
  6. Nexii
    Yea it's pretty bleak, Jays have 50-60M or so in FA spending without going over the cap. That buys us 6 wins, which is less WAR than we've just traded off Gotta have young talent, free agents are just a bit of an extra boost
  7. Nexii
    It would be ironic if the Jays clawed back to .500 after trading away half the team
  8. Nexii
    Yea it's pretty bad not giving Jansen a call. Though like the Berrios playoff pull, it's a sign of a much bigger problem within the Jays. A mindset that analytics people can solve everything and actual managers aren't needed. Just look at the kinds of managers they've chosen to hire - ones that won't question the questionable analytics. Probably will take Shapiro and Atkins both being gone to change that culture. Player development is where all the surplus value is these days, and the Jays have not done well. They've done fine with free agency but there's not a lot of juice to squeeze there with modern sabermetrics.
  9. Nexii
    I suppose Jays can't be buyers right now, but no one in AAA that's even worth a shot for relievers? Or is it more a myth that replacement level players are easy to find
  10. Nexii
    Our pitching was incredibly lucky/clutch last year (2nd just behind CIN, practically tied for first). That being said, the offense was incredibly unlucky/unclutch (29th). So there was hope on the aggregate Perhaps its just that the Jays are an aging team. A lot of the team is on the wrong side of 30
  11. Nexii
    Realistically we needed about 4 more WAR from the pitching and 4 more WAR from the lineup to be competitive at this point.
  12. Nexii
    I'd rather see young players giving it a go than veterans clearly past their prime
  13. Nexii
    Pitching needs to do better in the second half. There aren't any teams better than .500 that have given up as many runs as the Jays. Aside from Yimi, the bullpen hasn't even been replacement level. Why does Pete Walker get off so easy vs the hitting coaches?
  14. Nexii
    Yea the position players are getting all the blame while it's actually the pitching that's holding the Jays down. Offense is way down across the league, an average hitter is only .700 OPS this year. Jays lineup is 13th in WAR, not that much below where it was expected to be (~10th?) Pitching is 26th in WAR, and should have been similar to last year (~5th). The excellent defense of the Jays masks just how bad the pitching has really been
  15. Nexii
    Wouldn't each draft slot have an average career WAR? Then you could compare it to actual career WAR. If a player's 27+ you can probably assume 0 WAR
  16. Nexii
    I do wonder if the meta will shift to using relievers for more innings at a time with more rest. Pulling starters early and using every reliever for 1 IP doesn't seem sustainable
  17. Nexii
    People fixate on the offense, but even if we were 1st in hitting we'd be at .500. Look at the records of all the other teams giving up 5 runs/game I wish someone with FanGraphs knowledge could break it down where the pitching has failed
  18. Nexii
    Farm systems should be rated based on their ability to develop players, not on what prospects are the pipeline. Trades and draft slots can make a farm system look better or worse than it really is. The Jays so rarely bring up good players, I have to believe they're bottom third for development in the league We're probably also top third for picking good free agents, but that's not enough
  19. Nexii
    A league average player is batting only .239/.312/.383 this year Not to say our offense is great, but it's kind of deceptive with pitching getting better each year It's tricky to figure out why our pitching is getting rocked. I don't think it's velocity, for most pitch types we are average or above. Giving up a really high O-contact rate relative to other teams, and the most hard hit balls by a mile too. It's a weird combination of hitting bad pitches hard. There might be some truth to the Jays tipping pitches or teams picking up on patterns. Hard to know without some location data
  20. Nexii
    Jays hitting - 20th Jays pitching - 30th Jays fielding - 1st IMO the pitching's been the biggest disappointment. From 5th last year to dead last
  21. Nexii
    Though even if the Jays were hitting better, they would be .500 at best. They're literally last in team pitching WAR right now It's kind of unreal how many players are way below projections on both sides
  22. Nexii
    I wonder if something like a coaching WAR could be calculated. Expected WAR +/- actual. Probably would have to take out injuries, that's assuming they're mostly luck. Might be complex where good players get promoted and bad ones demoted. I feel like often draft pick # is a bit of a cop-out for poor development - Orioles for example a lot of others say just got good draft picks. But were they also better than average at development? Wouldn't each draft pick position have an estimated future WAR?
  23. Nexii
    +0.12 runs for the Jays last night https://twitter.com/UmpScorecards/status/1780606034140356822/photo/1
  24. Nexii
    Looked inconclusive on the Rays broadcast replay to me
  25. Nexii
    An MLB player is found guilty of gambling on baseball or fixing prop bets Jays finish with 98 wins Clement hits .335 for batting title Varsho 5 WAR Jays still finish 2nd in division and go out in first WC round again
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