I appreciate his projections. But he's blasting the FO and saying it's not even debatable that Johnson should have been given the QO. Like you said, we don't have access to the medical reports but the guy has suffered extended DL stints in 3 of the past 6 seasons (as well as surgery this past offseason); that should give anyone pause. But in his eyes, it's not even debatable, Johnson is worth 14 million. On top of it, this team is apparently cash strapped. 14 mil for a guy with Johnson's history is clearly debatable.
Personally, do I think the team would be dumb to have offered him 14 mil? Not necessarily but I don't think it's a no brainer either.
Also, I appreciate the time he puts in to projections. His model is better than anything I could create if you gave me a decade to do so. But pardon me for being skeptical of it. He does, after all, project Chris Capuano for a career year at 3 WAR. Of the three projections that fangraphs offers, Oliver rates him the highest with 1. Maybe he's right, but we probably won't get the chance to find out, the best Capuano could do is land a job in a bullpen for a couple of mil.