Terminator
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Everything posted by Terminator
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Dyson is definitely a douche but holy s*** is that post from the "cat" insufferable.
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Kyle Gibson, Chase Anderson, and ERA vs DIPS
Terminator replied to Laika's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Good post. Anderson does look like a FIP beater and it's hard to believe Steamer's projections for Gibson when they are predicting a career year at age 32. They are probably closer in talent than most think. I think both players and their respective transactions were good moves though. -
I'd love to know that offer. Perhaps we did make a sizable offer and he just didn't want to come in which case there's nothing Shatkins could have done.
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I don't understand you guys lol. I'm not saying Gibson's a slam dunk, every FA carries a sort of premium that contains risk. But 3 years and 30 million (or whatever reasonable number it would have taken to beat that) is peanuts for a pitcher projected for 3 WAR next year. No QO either. Will be interesting to see what other 2 starting pitchers we get that are going to be better than Gibson and his deal but I'm skeptical that will actually happen.
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A man of your talents using ERA? Really? He's better than you think. Uptick in Ks past 2 years which coincides with a 2 year spike in FB velo. Very good GB% and not a ton of walks. Unlucky with BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB compared to career norms. I'm on mobile so I havent checked his statcast numbers so unless theres something there I'm not sure what's wrong with him. He did get nicked up toward the end of last year I guess? Or maybe they think he becomes a 6K/9 guy again as he gets older and his fastball velo declines? He's not an ace or anything but at 3 for 30 he's not paid anywhere near one either.
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I would have been fine with it as well. Steamer projects him as a 3 WAR pitcher for 2020. There's still guys like that left but there's also a lot of teams looking for them and we desperately need 2 of them.
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Yeah that could be better if they want to focus on developing Biggio's defense at 2B and Villar has a lot of speed that should help him in the OF.
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I mean if they are just giving Villar away I'm tempted to take him and play him at 2B and have Biggio become a 1B/2B/OF guy.
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Yanks are being cheapskates
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https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2019/11/20/flexible-blue-jays-are-firm-in-their-conviction-to-add-pitching-this-off-season.html For the love of god, please cut the cord on Brandon Drury. The guy has been among the worst players in baseball 2 years running and is now eligible for arb.
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Yeah those two seem like the most obvious to me as well.
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Good to hear that they've identified 2 starting pitchers, and not just 1, as definite needs. Would be interested to hear some more concrete answers on what else they think they need. I think every team tinkers with RP every year and that has kind of come up some but I'd be interested in hearing their thoughts on CF and 1B in particular. The bench too.
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Laika flexing on BTS, daring him to do something
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Why is everyone acting like giving up a 2nd rounder is the end of the world? Just tag a value on it (something like 4 mil? probably less to be honest) and bake it in to the contract offer! It's not that big of a deal.
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Does he get his projected arb number in FA though? It's $3.8M. Regardless, you're right, this is definitely some bean counting.
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The pick isn't worth that much. You just need to assign a value to it and lump it in with the money we'd be giving up. It's probably worth about 4 million bucks is all. It's only a 2nd rounder. And Wheeler could end up signing for almost double the total amount of money. Fangraphs estimates 4 years and 72 mil for Wheeler and 3 for 45 for Odorizzi. I'd take either along with a 2 for 20 Kyle Gibson to round out the rotation. Seems like Fangraphs numbers could be low to me though.
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Forgot about that. Yeah definitely plays a role. I assume a 2nd rounder is worth about $5 mil or less? Still like him.
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If the velocity uptick is real he could be a nice get compared to some of the guys generally listed above him on FA rankings lists. See 3 year 45 million dollar estimates for him which seems like a nice get compared to the guys ahead of him.
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If a guy can't play LF try him in CF, and if that doesn't work then move him to 1B. lol
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Yeah that's a good point. Have to give a roster spot to a guy who is likely to give you about 12 starts max.
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On first glance I kind of look at this and think it's nickel and diming by Shatkins but in truth the guy hasn't done squat since 2016. I don't really care that much if he comes back or not tbh. But if he does it should be for pretty cheap. We could use the depth but counting on this guy for anything more than 80 innings would be pushing it. My guess is they are simply hardballing him but will bring him back.
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Pretty good deal for the Cards. Probably deserved more guaranteed money, perhaps even the full 10 mil. But if the incentives are easy enough like IP incentives then it might not matter.
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Could be an interesting sell-high move but given that he's making peanuts for the next 4 seasons I'd be careful in moving him. If his breakout is legit that's a lot of surplus value and if it's not he's still probably established that he's worthy of a roster spot as a 3 million dollar bench player. I wouldn't mind keeping him and having him play some 1B in addition to LF. Moving him even further down the defensive spectrum isn't ideal but more versatility isn't a bad thing. Could be a good way to give everyone enough ABs, particularly if we bring on a starting-caliber CF.
