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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    Yeah I don't think they should do moves like this but if they really do want to win the WS they will need to swing for the fences in FA and hit some home runs. Signing Snell and getting 5 WAR out of him next year before he implodes, trying to get a 30 homer season out of O'Neill before his roid-addled muscles tear off the bone, going over the luxury tax on 1 year deals for expensive and old pitchers, etc. are the types of things that I think they could consider. You are kind of argumentative toward me in your post (granted, you'd probably argue with me if I said the sky was blue so it could just be your posting style) but I don't recommend these moves, to be clear, so I think we are mostly on the same page.
  2. Terminator
    The best 87 win rotation that 100 million dollars can buy
  3. Terminator
    Gausman Bassitt Berrios Yariel FA Signing Swingman- Francis AAA- Bloss, Macko
  4. Terminator
    Give me 50 million bucks and I'll whip this team into a Wild Card contender in about 2 minutes. Actually I just DFA'd Romano and Swanson so now I have 65 mil. Snell for 5 years, 28 mil AAV Santander 4 years, 20 mil Backup Catcher (doesn't matter who, any shitbag will do) for 1 year, 3 mil Jose LeClerc 3 years, 8 mil Blake Treinen 1 year, 5 mil Trade some of the excess Buffalo Boys for a couple of relievers If there's anything left over sign another reliever to a 1 year deal And there you have it. An 87 win wild card team and a first round playoff exit. Easy stuff.
  5. Terminator
    Ohtani got 10 for 460. Soto could get more years but I doubt he gets anymore AAV than that. I bet the Jays are finalists for him but I don't think there is anyway we end up with him.
  6. Terminator
    1. No they shouldn't but all indications are that they are going to let them keep their jobs. 2. I tend to be higher on their 2025 then most. And it's not because I love the team but it's because of the realities of the new playoff format combined with the fact that we can add an additional 50-60 mil in payroll. Almost any team in the league, save for the truly shitbag franchises like the White Sox and Rockies, can compete with an addition 50-60 mil in payroll now. Granted, our best players are about to hit FA and the farm system sucks, so papering over our holes with FAs is just polishing a turd but we can compete in 2025 IMO.
  7. Terminator
    I do think we will see them spend on some risky FAs. Blake Snell seems like the perfect storm for them. He's a big name with some hardware to appease the rabid fans and sports media and he should be pretty damn good next year in their attempt to make the playoffs. Never mind that he might be complete ass in year 3, 4 and 5 of that deal; they simply need to survive 2025 before they worry about that. Tyler O'Neill could be another guy they target. A 4 year deal for that guy as he enters into his 30s sounds like a game of Russian Roulette but he's got 30 homer power and is a big name (in this market anyway) that will get some maple boners going. Then they will be interested in throwing some cherries on top. Expensive guys on short term deals. Kenley Jansen, Scherzer, etc. It'll be a Riccardi 2006-like offseason and the media and fans will love it. It might even get the team back into the WC which would allow them some time to try and revamp their farm system and player development.
  8. Terminator
    Idk about that. There's a lot of pressure on Shapiro and Atkins. I'm not sure that they can afford to throw some window dressing on the team, tell the fans we are competing, keep expectations high, and then expect to keep their jobs after failing to make the playoffs again. I think they are going to be aggressive this offseason. Not saying they should be, but they have the money and the front office has all the motivation to spend it with their jobs being on the line.
  9. Terminator
    Yeah the lineup should be okay with a couple of decent additions. The problem is the rotation also needs a couple of decent additions and it's not like the team is strong enough to where all of these adds can be modest 1.5 WAR guys. A couple of them need to be 3+ WAR. And then the bullpen needs a complete overhaul and we need a good backup C too. That's all doable if the team spends big this offseason. But the end result for 2025 is an old, expensive wild card contender without a whole lot in the minor league system. And the one thing we do have, a big payroll with lots of flexibility moving forward, is going to be gone with all these FA additions and possible a Vlad extension too.
  10. Terminator
    Yeah homers only have a park factor of 108 which is 9th overall. Not much different than RC at 102. But because the OFers have so much ground to cover they have to play back so there are more singles (115) too. And because the OF is so damn deep there are more doubles even if the OFers play back (119) and the place is basically broken when it comes to triples (197). Combine that with strike outs being 88 (everyone's stuff flattens out) and it's a hitter's paradise. But it's also hard to judge how it affects the overall statline of their hitters. At home they get a pretty big advantage, but there is the Rockie Road theory that their hitters struggle more on the road than other players because everyone's stuff appears to be so much better when not at altitude. That does even it out some but to what degree I'm not sure.
  11. Terminator
    The playoffs will not be easy to make
  12. Terminator
    Baty could be solid if the price was right. Bats lefty so he and Clement could make for a decent platoon.
  13. Terminator
    Extend Mattingly
  14. Terminator
    He had a -12 Statcast fielding run value last year in just 84 games in the field. It was so bad that he's only played 1 inning in the field this year.
  15. Terminator
    Yeah that is definitely possible. Opting in is the equivalent of signing a one year $27M deal, with a player option for 25 mil tacked on. Could he do better than that?
  16. Terminator
    This plan makes sense to me but unless Loperfido or Barger end the season on fire I think we need another OF bat. There are tons of them on the market this year too. Tier 1- not happening Soto Tier 2- will take a multi-year deal Bellinger Teoscar Santander O'Neill Tier 3- one or two year deal Conforto (boring but would actually fit) Verdugo (yuck) Bader (not what we need) Kepler (would also fit but never healthy) Winker (too risky) Profar (too risky)
  17. Terminator
    McMahon isn't that bad! Great defender and although his bat isn't great, he bats left handed which is great. Could spell him with Ernie once in a while. His AAV is fine. The problem is that old man Monfort has a crush on him and considers him to be an actual friend. In fact he considers everyone in the organization a close personal friend so that's why he never fires or trades anyone. So they'll never trade him.
  18. Terminator
    That was such a stupid signing. They are lucky that he's even this good. Really bad body type for baseball as he's built like an NFL RB. Short and squatty and not very athletic. I can see why scouts panned the signing when it happened. He's almost entirely reliant on a very good hit tool. If that was just average he'd be below replacement value.
  19. Terminator
    the playoffs will be easy to make
  20. Terminator
    That might matter a little bit but not sure how much. If you gain runs via offense you'll probably just give them back via defense and the bottom line doesn't change much. Just take the value wherever you can get it.
  21. Terminator
    Right, but you can see the angle they were going for. If he hits 110 wRC+, which I believe he was projected to do at the time, he's an All-Star and should flirt with a Top 5 MVP vote tally. Dude's bat has turned into an almost worst-case scenario and the trade is just kind of meh.
  22. Terminator
    Further to the Varsho in LF point, CF gets a +2.5 positional adjustment and LF/RF get -7.5. So that's 10 runs or a total of 1 win, which seems significant. But that's per 162 games. Nobody is playing that many games so that eats into the run total a little bit. Then factor in that Varsho played 64 games in CF last year and that eats into it even more. Then there's whatever value comes from not having to carry a 4th OF who can play CF (or carrying one that can't really play CF that well). By the time you factor all that in, Varsho's WAR probably got dinged by about 0.2 or so. KK putting up a fat WAR number more than made up for that in '23. Didn't work in 2022.
  23. Terminator
    Yeah bringing him back in 2024 was not the right move. But they don't think in terms of just adding offense like fans do. They try and add value to the team in the most efficient way possible. KK put up nearly a 4 bWAR season last year and 2.8 fWAR which has always hated KK's defense for some reason. Yeah those numbers weren't repeatable but they weren't paying for him to repeat that. They were hoping to get a couple of WAR out of him. His bat completely cratered so it didn't work out, but it also illustrates just how unique of a player he is when he can hit like a pitcher but still put up 0.5 bWAR and 0.1 fWAR.
  24. Terminator
    The Varsho in LF thing is so overblown IMO. It worked out amazingly in year 1. They doubled down on KK in Year 2 and it didn't work, but it's not because Varsho was playing a lot of LF, it was because KK sucked.
  25. Terminator
    Don Mattingly did the impossible, he fixed Vlad Jr.'s swing. Both deserve big extensions.
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