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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Agree with Arencibia, not sure what happened there. Gomes numbers were in fact better than Arencibia's in the minors but no one noticed. On the point that very few traded prospects become superstars elsewhere? I don't know. There has been a few develop that way in the last couple of years. Fernando Tatis was traded, Gleyborre Torres was traded, Tyler Glasnow traded. Yoan Moncada traded, Eloy Jiminez too. All super stars or close.
  2. Olerud363
    I agree that I wouldn't trade Semien in "this market". I'd only trade him if someone is willing to give decent long term pieces. Does it make sense for both sides?? 2 WAR in August and September and a potential flag in 2021 for one side... a key piece of the 22-25 run back at Rogers Center for the other. It would have to be trades where the Blue Jays are very likely to win in long term WAR, but the 2 WAR from Ray/Semien, and key playoff contributions from those guys, are worth a team giving up a long term piece. 2016 Yankee trades or forget about it... which is fine too.
  3. Olerud363
    You are right, they were old farts, but they had Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino, ready for a 3-5 year run. Funny thing is late July 2016 it was not apparent at all how close they were. However their trades got them Torres, Clint Frazier, Shefield (who was flipped for James Paxton), Mckinney (flipped for Happ). Of course trades like that may not be available in 2021... or maybe they would with Ray and Semien and Matz. If you can sign above and have money remaining for Bo/Vlad extensions, I'm fine with it. If you can't sign above I'm fine with re-loading. The prospects if not ready to help for 2022, can be used to get other things for 2022.
  4. Olerud363
    If they don't get any closer to a play-off spot in the next month, I would trade expiring contracts for win-soon assets (unless they can work out a long term deal with Semien Ray). It might be smart to load up on more prospects, then use those in trades for 2022.
  5. Olerud363
    Counterpoint is the 2016 Yankees. .500 team (albeit probably not with the talent of the 2021 Jays), sold at deadline (despite a year where 89 wins got the wild card), and got assets (Gleyber and others) for 2017-2021 run. Trade Semien, Ray, Matz and other expiring contracts for assets, win-soon assets if you can, but that's not a requirement. Load up on a bunch of more prospects which can be used in trades for 2022.
  6. Olerud363
    If Charlie was smarter we'd have a 20-10 record in 1 run games, just like Gibby always got us.
  7. Olerud363
    If he kept it up it would be the best non-Bonds season in the last 50 years. He is neck and neck with 1994 Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell.
  8. Olerud363
    It's an old joke from the Cito/Murph years. They occasionally complained about base-clogging... Joe Morgan and Dusty Baker too... lol
  9. Olerud363
    I don't think any plays got COVID except for Torres, who was back in 8 days because he had been vaccinated (didn't have to wait the full 10, only had to wait until a negative test). I think 7 coach's including Nevin got it, and Nevin is the only one who had symptoms, and it sounds like he had other issues going on.
  10. Olerud363
    A lot of us long timers follow Cito Gaston, Murph, and the 'base clogger' theory. Sometimes guys just clog the bases. There is actually a stat for it called 'based clogged'... it's walks + doubles - stolen bases + triples... if you walk 100 times and hit lots of doubles, but no triples and no steals it means you are slow and just clogging it up.
  11. Olerud363
    That's a good point. There's a lot of random variation in a single season, especially last year's 60 game season,
  12. Olerud363
    This is a golden thread... lol. This is exactly correct, at least for Thomas Above is a link to Big Frank's first and last homerun. As a young player he was practically slim... huge guy but not fat at all. His last homerun he was kind of big.. But I think Vlad this year is about where Thomas was by the end. Vlad last year was about where Bob Hamelin was. Prince Fielder was obese in his early 20s and it worked for him until about 30. Cliff Johnson? No idea if he was fat. However if he was his career is like the essence of what a fat guy who had HOF potential can do it himself with Obesity, a bunch of of 100 game 20 homer seasons, when he might of been way better without obesity.
  13. Olerud363
    I was looking for comparable players, minor league hitters who had decent numbers outside a unbelievable disaster of a season. Smith's disaster was 2019 .209 .263 .403 Compare to Teoscar Hernandez 2015 (22 years old) .219 .275 .362 Or Rowdy Tellez 2017 (also 22) - .222 .295 .333 Of course there may be differences in Strike-out rate and such. I think if Smith keeps it up for a season (it's only been 1 month) you can start projecting him as a hitter somewhere at the Tellez/Hernandez level. At the major league level Smith will probably (like Tellez and Hernandez) be a 5 week cold stretch from having a 'send to Korea' thread started, and a 5 week hot stretch from hitting clean up... That could be valuable if he can play decent infield defense.
  14. Olerud363
    Manny had raw numbers as good... basically did this all of 1999 and 2000. The difference is that league norm was like .260 .340 .450 (edit that was my guess, looked it up and it was .275 .347 .439... in 1999 wow!). Vlad is doing this in a league that is hitting .237 .310 .390 or so.
  15. Olerud363
    I understand any discussion about COVID usually goes off the rails. However isn't when and how the team will return to play in Toronto a pretty important issue to everybody on the board?
  16. Olerud363
    You think all 30 MLB teams and the Union will agree to that?
  17. Olerud363
    The other teams aren't going to accept having to leave 10% of their roster at home for Jays home games. So that is not a solution.
  18. Olerud363
    This is the tricky issue. There is a good chance the border will be open to vaccinated by late July. So what happens if only 90% of MLB is vaccinated?
  19. Olerud363
    Olerud 93, Delagado 2000, and Bautista 11, all had historically great seasons fade to 3rd place MVP finishes because of slow Septembers. Here are dates that are safe All Star - June 24th MVP - August 20th Triple Crown - September 10th The triple crown is the latest and based on Olerud's attempt at .400... he kept it up seriously until August, but still faded to .363... Serious talk on .400 or Triple Crown has to wait until September. I think Bautista and Delgado were within reach of Triple Crown into August but didn't come that close. One of the reasons I was worried about VGJs off days (or lack of) was because of seeing Olerud 93, Delgado 2000, and Bautista 11 all fade a bit in their great seasons... Bonds is one who kept up a 4 year run of insanity using about 15-20 scheduled off days a year (and Steroids too).
  20. Olerud363
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/06/07/trudeau-canada-border-reopen-vaccinated/?sh=491510dc3e6f I still wonder how do the Jays ever return since a vaccine passport will be needed? Will the union agree to quarantining unvaccinated players, assuming Canada even lets them in? I am guessing the vaccine passport breaks down at some point (movies, other business interests, international leaders, refugees)... I don't know. Maybe NHL next year, if NHL doesn't get 100% vaccination.
  21. Olerud363
    Which it is going to be. The next thing will be vaccine passports. Even if they got all the Jays vaccinated, no way 100% of MLB will every be... How is this going to resolve? Justin - "Despite their best efforts only 92.7% of MLB is vaccinated, we cannot allow the unvaccinated in, thus the Blue Jays will not be playing here until.. well I don't know if or when. I love you all." Like I said how does it get resolved?
  22. Olerud363
    Looks like Jays will be at Sahlen Field until at least July 24th. Hopefully they will return in August. No reason not to if the fatality rate from the virus remains low in U.S. and Canada. Case counts may become deceiving if vaccines reduce fatalities a huge amount.
  23. Olerud363
    That's kind of the opposite of what usually happens. Usually the low performers and the geniuses get it right and us "mid-wits" are always wrong. Haven't you seen any of those IQ bell curve memes that go around? I'm a 100 IQ midwit myself, and I don't remember getting the Springer thing right. I think I panicked post for a while that he'd be out 3 months... but when he came back, I thought he was just going to be back for the rest of the season.
  24. Olerud363
    Roughly (in terms of wins) Great SS/CF (Ripken/White/K.) : +3 wins Mediocre SS/OF (Tatis/Acuna) : 0 wins Great 1b (Lightning Cat VGJ, Olerud, Eddie Murray) : 0 wins Fat 1b (Frank Thomas, 291 pound VGJ) : -2 wins (negative)
  25. Olerud363
    About 3 wins. However Acuna and Tatis are not showing up as ++ defenders on fangraphs at least... In fact Vladdy, Acuna and Tatis have about the same defensive value this year. Great defensive Players (3 wins) Ozzie Smith, Cal Ripken, Devon White, Andrelton Simmons, Keirmier have been 3 wins. Acuna and Tatis are like 0 wins according to the stats. However maybe they are paid like they are awesome defensively, and lighting cat Vlad at first is providing almost as much value this year. Don't tell anybody that. Just say Vladimir Guerrero jr can hit the ball, but has no defensive value so shouldn't get Tatis money. Give him 11 220 instead.
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