Olerud363

I agree Guerrero, Soto, and Trout have a ceiling way higher than Olson and Ohtani, but I think differentiating between the three is like calling strikes... human can't do it. Look at Soto's performance in the homerun derby in the round against Ohtani, look at the run he went on just after the all star break, or in 2020. He's got serious raw power and could easily hit 50 homeruns if he can get the ground ball rate down. Soto has similar career ground ball rate to Guerrero actually, and if either had a full season without major slump, hitting the ball hard with the ground ball rate down they'd reach Cabrerra + Stanton level (which I assume is .350 with 50+ homeruns).

Used to be when this board had a vibrant political discussion and Trump was on Twitter, I'd get all riled up. Especially about the COVID stuff. I was un-vaxed, un-masked and angry. After Trump and BJMB political discussion was banned, I started following Mike Wilner and Andrew Stoetien. Their views are very well thought out. Now I am fully vaxed, double masked and much calmer, except when the Blue Jays keep losing 2-1 to the Tigers.

Amazing accomplishment during a team collapse, Vladdy losing the MVP, another wave of COVID, and Canadian election called all in 3 weeks. We suffer quietly and rage inside but when posting force a fake smile and a coerced positive outlook.

They threatened some poor guy who thought Vladdy sucked because he is hitting .240 second half and has a .300 or something slugging in August. I would like to read the following statement. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. does not suck. He will surely win the triple crown. He will 100% be back to hitting a homer or two every series starting tonight. He will hit .400 with 12 homeruns in Septemeber. Vladdy Guerrero Jr. is not back over 270 pounds. He is a 240 pound lighting cat. He does not hit just grounders, double play balls and singles off the wall. For sure not. He hits 115 mph line drives that nobody can catch and 114 mph fly balls that go 440 feet or more. He does this always and always. I love you Vladdy"

Also. Will he finish the year as the best hitter in baseball? Juan Soto may have already passed him. I am guessing Ohtani and Matt Olson will pass him. Potentially he finishes the year behind Olson, if Olson finishes well and Vlad continues to slump. May not even win the silver slugger at first, pretty disappointing after the start.

That's a bit unfair. Vlad Guerrero has sucked for August, no question about that. Posters aren't allowed to vent on that? Because the narrative is that it is 100% certain that Vlad won't go down the same road as Cody Bellinger?

Also according to this board Charlie is a -5 WAR manager, let's assume that is not true but he is a minus 2 WAR manager, then that is 2 more WAR for 2022 by firing him... And if you actually think Charlie is a -5 WAR manager then just firing him and replacing him with average manager makes up for Semien.

At end of year... Gurriel 1 WAR Biggio 0 WAR Vlad 4 WAR (after losing a WAR from his ground ball episode to end the season). Fix those 3 in 2022 Gurrien 3 WAR Biggio 3 WAR Vlad 6 WAR That is 7 more WAR

if they can a) Get Biggio back to 2020 form Get Gurriel back to 2020 form c) Stop Guerrero from being bad 60% ground ball rate, 270 pound Vlad That will replace the WAR lost from Semien

Yeah... that's why this thread has not been bumped much and devolved into talk of relief pitching prospects. Martin - traded for a guy who we are 1-4 in his starts Moreno - 1 month hand injury turns into season ending hand injury Martinez - Peaks late June, and hit's .140 or something in A+ Groshans - Kind of marching on like he did all year... solid numbers that are comparable to Bo Bichette's double a year, but not enough eye popping stuff to bump the thread regularly.

Both are tough cases. I may have more confidence in Ray then Semien... but... Semien may end up leading all players in WAR since 2019. His career fWAR will look quite comparable to George Springers at 31. So is he worth 25 million a year? Is he a 5 WAR player moving forward? At the end of the year he'll have 2 7 fWARs, a 3.9 and a bunch of 2ish. What is he at 31-35? It seems to me he doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as Vlad, Springer or even Bo. He pulls a lot of hardish hit, but not hammered fly balls. Is that a skill that translates forward? Ray -- looks awesome. Like he's turned a corner. Seems he has elite velocity and now elite control. What other guys have made this kind of turn around? Ray's stats look like Randy Johnson's in his 20s, Johnson didn't have his first elite season until 29. What other guys had similar careers as Ray and Johnson up to this point? I am sure I don't remember the ones that didn't become Randy Johnson.

Orioles lose 24 in a row, then sweep Jays Vlad Jr 2/15 in series with key strike-outs and double plays in clutch situations. Berrios 3 1/2 pitched 5 earned runs, 2 un-earned (Bichette error) Shatkins -- Berrios, Vlad, and Bo might lose confidence, Charlie makes a mistake now and then, but it's important to have his positive influence to make sure these dreadful late season slumps don't extend into next year.

I always dreamed he'd like hit Pujols and he sure has... it's like Albert Pujols career in a single season. 1st half the Cardinals part, second half the Angels part.

Well the assumption his .425 on base percentage won't translate to the majors without power. I guess at some point pitchers will just throw it down the middle. Kind of a depressing outcome of the number 5 overall pick. Boston's top 5 pick Marcelo Mayer is already in the top 10 according to the MLB prospect list. Boston - 1 down year , Sale back in incredible pennant race with Yankees 1 year later. Obtain franchise icon, game changing prospect Marcelo Mayer with down year. Toronto - 3 down years, obtain Austin Martin after worst, turn Austin Martin into 1.5 years of non-elite starting pitcher. Not in exciting Pennant race, developed a 78-82 win team that blows lots of games.

Where does Tampa Bay get their relievers? Sign a couple free agents, turn a couple minor league starters like Hatch or Elvis Lucianno (sp?) into relievers. Maybe trade Grichuk or Jansen for some live arm... I don't know. Sign extra starters and if no one gets hurt Pearson starts out as a reliever next year.

Why not play Smith at short and give Bo a half day off at DH? It's a little thing but Bo and Vlad both may be tired, and a little load management wouldn't be a bad thing. The scouting reports I've heard indicate Smith is a great defensive player...

Hilarious... Blue Jays do the kind of moves the players would love Seattle do the kind of moves the players would hate Seattle 1.5 games ahead of Blue Jays 3 weeks later. Yeah I think part of the reason Blue Jays made all the moves was to 'reward' the players for putting up with all the moves. Players would of been better off if Hatch took all of hands games, or hell even Elvis the rule 5 pick wouldn't of been worse... 1. Elvis the rule 5 pick as a 19 year old in 2019 (5.35 ERA walked a tonne) 2. Chatwood (5.46 ERA) 3. Hand (10.50 ERA with Jays) Elvis's stats were from 2 years ago, he's probably way better now.

12. Tellez the left handed power hitter who we thought could hit 5th for years slumps and traded to re-enforce injured bullpen (then un-slumps). 13. Biggio the walk machine who we thought could be a 4 WAR guy slumps and (sigh) might prove Kieth Law right.

I'm not advocating 'pull dat ball'. Just made the observation that over the last month Semien has pulled a bunch of 95-100 mph 380 foot drives for home runs and extra base hits, while Vlad has hit a bunch of similar 95=100 mph 385 foot drives to center for outs. I do wonder if it's because Vlad is tiring or has a slight hand injury, thus isn't pulling the ball as much and is not hitting the balls to center with as much EV. Will Vlad or Semien hit more homers the last quarter of the season?

The problem is he doesn't pull the ball as much as say Semien... he uses the big part of the park more. He was hitting a bunch of those balls at about 95-100 mph, 385 feet or so, all to center or the gaps. My understanding is that the expected average of a batted ball is calculated presuming the direction is random, but direction isn't completely random, different guys have different spray charts. So the batted balls Vlad was hitting didn't have the same expected average as compared to if he pulled them more (like Semien does). Of course we don't expected him to continue having no extra base hits at all and a .300 something slugging percentage (as has been the case for August). If he keeps on hitting 385 foot fly balls he'll pull some, he won't hit 100% to center field. Presumably he'll also start getting more lift on some of his 110+ exit velo hits too. That's the hope anyway.

No extra base hits on the road trip... Some hard hit balls on the ground and low line drives... a single off the wall in Seattle... better than a roller to the third basemen, but the single off the wall was a signature of Bad Vlad. 115 mph double play grounder, single off the wall, strike out, slow roller to the third basemen... that is the classic Bad Vlad day.

There was a point 6-8 weeks ago many thought this was the best positioned team in Blue Jays history. Not really a contender but a huge base of talent in majors and minors and positioned for years of success. Instead everything has trended down in the majors and minors... It used to be every night I'd see the minor league thread bumped late at night with reports of good games by Groshans/Moreno/Martin and Martinez but hardly see it bumped at night at all anymore What a depressing stretch in majors and minors... 1. Vlad slumps and loses shot at historic season and MVP 2. Springer injured again 3. 5th overall pick Austin Martin slumps a bit and traded. 4. Woods-Richardson who looked like a top 100 pitching prospect, has ERA double and traded 5. Orelvis Martinez who looked like a super-prospect at his highest point, shows warts and slumps at A+ 6. Gabriel Moreno slow to come back from injury and may miss rest of season. 7. Return from Martin/SWR not performing at elite level 8. Angel Martinez screws our rookie picture and balloons his ERA 9. Riley Adams traded for negative WAR tire fire who has blown up 3 games 10. Jordan Groshans still not showing much power. 11. Mighty Yankees roaring and on the historic run that we thought would happen to us.

lol. I wonder if Martin will get a call-up so he can beat us in September. Timing might be right that Martin could officially eliminate the Jays from playoff contention. Probably Martin will hit 3 homeruns against Jays in a September call-up and the moment he arrives to Bregman level will come against the Jays. Dan - And that one is out of here. They said Martin wasn't showing power, but he's sure showing it in this series. Buck - Well, he had a bad thumb, and the Twins say it's healed now, and he does have a real power. This kid is certainly something. Dan - Well hopefully this will be a trade that helps both sides, Berrios has struggled a bit but the Jays have him for next year, so we will see.

It's not a troll comment if it's a legit concern. And the Jays bullpen is a legit concern. Who the hell wasn't super nervous with Hand warming up with the 5-4 lead. If you don't like realistic negativity then that's fine. Just say "my name is positive Pete. Positive thinking wins the day. No need for negative Nancies. No need at all. Let's all be positive. Go Jays! Go Hand! Go bullpen!"

Does he have 2 more years or 3 more years left? Either way no need to rush and sign him off his best year if you have him for a couple of more... unless of course he's willing to take a club friendly deal.