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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    30 best franchises in baseball. 1 NY Yankees 2 Dodgers 3 Red Sox 4 Cubs 5 Cardinals 6 Astros 7 Braves 8 Giants 9 Mets 10 Indians 11 Padres 12 Phillies 13 Nationals 14 Rangers 15 Diamond Backs 16 Twins 17 Brewers 18 Rays 19 Athletics 20 White Sox 21 Angels 22 Royals 24 Twins 25 Reds 26 Blue Jays 27 Pirates 28 Mariners 29 Orioles 30 Marlins
  2. Olerud363
    I guess we will see. I'm not sure how you define 'best franchise in baseball'. They are top 3. If you want you can put LA and NY Yankees ahead that is fine. But who else? 4 world series this century, great teams more often than not.
  3. Olerud363
    Our Toronto Blue Jays vs the best run franchise in baseball...
  4. Olerud363
    Better then Brett Cecil and Osuna combo in 2015? Actually Sanchez was a good reliever that year too.
  5. Olerud363
    He has an irrational hate for the Boston Red Sox, one of the best run franchise in baseball. Was discussing the Lindor contract the other day, and someone compared it to Bogaerts. Somehow Bogaerts is signed for 5 100, I think going forward, Lindor for 10 350. Insane. Was discussing Springer, and someone brought up Martinez, who has had almost perfect health. Was discussing Devers and Guerrero, and was pointed out that Red Sox did a great job with Dever's conditioning and keeping him at third. By all means Guerrero is great this year, but lost third because he showed up at 280 last year. The sox know what they are doing. We all talk about "great front office", "high performance team", "analytics", but the sox walk the walk, with so many of their decisions working out. Great health for their players, more over-performance than under (of course mistakes too, yes I am aware of Panda). I want to beat them, but at the same time I respect them as much as any team.
  6. Olerud363
    Normally yes. If it was like Trout vs Donaldson in 2015, Donaldson's story is better. But Ohtani's story, is "better" even if Vladdy's WAR (Frank Thomas stats in low-O environment with lightning-cat 1b defense) is better.
  7. Olerud363
    Hard to know. Buntoyo let Vlad play 60 games at 300 pounds last year and somehow got him to show up at 240 this year, he hasn't freaked out when Bo looked like Russ Adams for a couple weeks. Or when Cavan Biggio couldn't hit fastballs and was stuck at .150 If Jansen or Tellez ever turn it around we'll be thankful for Buntoyo's patience. Not sure how Gibby would of dealt with those situations... not really saying he would of messed it up and sent Vlad to independent league and Bo to 2b and Cavan to aaa I just honestly don't know how he would handle young players struggling occasionally.
  8. Olerud363
    That is exactly what I was getting at.. I said "it doesn't seem he is the type who should walk so little" If he get's his walk rate up as a hitter and down as a pitcher his fWar will go way up. fWar is smart enough to know he shouldn't have a 2.10 era with a sky high walk rate, it also dings him for a .313 on base percentage. If his walk rate normalized both ways and his power stayed the same he would be somewhere near a 10 WAR guy (assuming health, 120 innings pitched, 600 plate appearances) Of course maybe the power would normalize too and he is more of a 35 homer guy. That's why the smart guys are publicly confident he won't be the best player in baseball... you have to know how to read smart guys, they won't publicly acknowledge lower probability outcomes but privately they do hedge for them.
  9. Olerud363
    If he could improve his walk ratio on both sides of the field and stay healthy and consistent for a few years. Yes. Both are big ifs. Between pitching and hitting he is on pace for 7-8 fWAR, which if he could do for 3 or 4 years still probably wouldn't beat a healthy early 20s Mike Trout. But maybe it would beat an sometimes injured late 20s.early 30s Mike Trout? Needs to improve the walks. Walks. Health and walks. It's not impossible given he doesn't seem the type who would walk 80 in 100 innings, and only walk 30 times in 600 at bats. Change it to 40 pitching walks in 120 innings (less walks = less pitches = more innings), and 60 walks as a hitter and he is the best (assuming health, lol given today's injury rates)
  10. Olerud363
    Has anybody tried making another team an offer for a big star? Like if we want Kris Bryant would the cubs fans want Pearson or Manoah as part of the package? (not trying to debate whether we should trade for Bryant, just curious which prospect other fans would want, that would be a good tell)
  11. Olerud363
    So why are the owners/gms offering contracts that pay big money for ages 34+ ?? That's what I am interested in. Is it rational or is there something else going on? a) owners/gms willing to lose money to win owners/gms think they are rational but they are not c) gms don't care because it is not their money and year 8-10 of a contract will probably be some other GMs problem c) is interesting. For the GM to have a 10 year job, years 4 and 5 need to be good so their incentive is to maximize years 3-5...
  12. Olerud363
    A related question is whether the market is rational, rational but naïve, or irrational 1. Rational - They have good projections about what guys will do, are handling uncertainty properly and know the value of a win. 2. Rational but naïve - The think they have good projections about what guys will do and the value of a win, but they don't. 3. Irrational - for some reason the market isn't working and guys are being given huge contracts when the information we have shows they shouldn't get those contracts. Super-nuanced and complicated conversation, because it involves estimating the worth of 3 years of World Series contention vs other scenarios, etc. However if 1. is true they get what they deserve. If 2, or 3 is true they are overpaid.
  13. Olerud363
    I saw this discussion on another thread but can't find it. Best 3 year run for a Blue Jay position player (I think the discussion focused on offense only, but here defense and offense). Candidates (I eye-balled the numbers, I think they are right but could of messed up slightly) Donaldson 2015-2017 21 fWAR Bautista 2010-2012 17.7 fWAR Delgado 1998-2000 16.7 fWAR Alomar 91-93 16.1 fWAR White 91-93 17.7 fWAR McGriff 88-90 18.5 fWAR Barfield 85-87 18.8 fWAR Donaldson is probably first, great offense and good defense. Who is second? Kind of get into how much you trust the defense numbers. For example White beats Alomar because White's defense those years rates as historic and Alomar's less then expected. McGriff beats Delgado despite much worse rate stats because of era + defense. Same with Barfield over Bautista (though Bautista missed 60+ games in 2012).
  14. Olerud363
    Cooking your own is still not great as most people use chain store burgers in that case. Make sure you get your ground beef at a farmers market. Better yet get the cow from someone local you know, and make sure it is grass fed. Butcher it yourself to make sure it's done right. And don't use a chain shop barbeque, I made a fire pit. No chain shop grill either. Welded it myself and got the rocks from the local quarry.
  15. Olerud363
    The height of the seams is important. Higher seams makes it easier to get more movement on breaking stuff. Lower seams = less drag. I think this year they raised the seams so more movement but more drag. Perhaps they need to lower the seams back to 2020 level, but fool around with how tightly the yarn is wound and the properties of the cork. Spend a lot of time on it, and do lots of experiments, and as someone else mentioned test the ball extensively in milb and spring training. Get it right.
  16. Olerud363
    He looks tired and his batting ball data has crashed the last 2 weeks. Yankees would give Stanton and Judge off days in the same situation.. which is why they may finish stronger then Vladdy Keep in mind a good high performance approach would give guys 5-10 off days a year. This would only be one of them and it was a good place to give him one.
  17. Olerud363
    Surprised to see Vlad not being a given a day off here. If you are not going to give him a day off on the road, in an NL Park, with Rowdy needing a game, with day game after a night game, while he's on a bit of a cold streak.... When are you going to give him a day off? He looks a little tired to me. Just missed a couple he should of crushed.
  18. Olerud363
    During his mini-slump the last 2 weeks his batted ball stats have deteriorated a bit. Ground ball rate now in the high 40s, hard hit rate under 40. That being said his batted ball stats are still similar to Juan Soto's so no huge worries but I do hope they are keeping an eye on it. Especially monitoring mechanics, looking at patterns as to how he is being pitched and monitoring fatigue (no days off yet for Vlad). That's what a high performance team is suppose to do right? Keep him at the .320 .450 .600 level we all demand through high performance magic.
  19. Olerud363
    One of the problems is the high strike-out approach leads to a higher wRC+ in many cases then a higher average low strike-out approach. Take a look at Jose Altuve's 2014 and 2019. 2014 .341 7 homers 50 strike-outs 137 wRC+ 2019 .298 31 homers 80ish strike-out 139 wRC+ I just flipped through some teams, and noticed in 2006 Frank Cat was beat out by Eric Hinske, in 2015 Justin Smoak had a higher wRC+ then Ben Revere Not sure how to show this in general, but the low k batting average guy gets beat out by the low average, high k power guy, assuming the latter guy get's a few extra walks by working deep into the count. So teams are optimizing that way.
  20. Olerud363
    I think there is a 'vulture' role, where a guy like Pearson could get 40 games, 120-140 innings, 3-5 innings per game, win 10 and save 10 that would be really valuable. Just to need to figure out how to do it. Something like how relievers were used 40 years ago, but not quite. Limit back to back days, a few less games then a typical reliever, a little longer each game.
  21. Olerud363
    1. Limit of 11 pitchers on roster a) this would force pitchers, both starters and relievers to throw 93 instead of 101, in order to pace themselves and cover all the innings. the extra roster spots would bring back Rance Mullinicks types who can hit .310 with 5 homers and hardly any strike outs in a platoon with a right handed contact hitter. 2. Every game Robot-umped in the background with very severe embarrassing repercussions for bad calls. Ump gets embarrassed, takes financial losses, then eventually loses job (within months not years) if above does not work Robot umps 3. Ball maipulated not by fake 'expert-expert' science, but by data and common man sensible science. Figure out what changes will deaden the ball a bit from 2019 level, but at the same time don't raise seams (which seems to have increased movement and strike outs). Need a ball that is less lively then 2019, but also breaks less.
  22. Olerud363
    Here are some radical ideas 1. 11 man pitching staff limit - just forces both starters and relievers to go longer and to go longer they will have to pace themselves 2. 10 million dollar bonus for batting title winner, followed by 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 million for top 10 3. Serious scientific effort to change the ball. It wasn't changing the ball that is the issue, it was changing it by idiots. Ball doesn't go as far, but apparently has high seams and moves more. Dumb. They can get some smarter people to carefully change the ball, so it both doesn't go as far, and breaking stuff moves less. 4. Consistent strike zone Robot umps? Before Robot umps, I'd first be interested in every game being Robot umped in parallel, then very serious repercussions financial and career wise for umpires calling ******** out of the zone strikes.
  23. Olerud363
    The major league average is in the low .230s and trending downwards. The trend ends in 10 days. Wander by himself will raise the MLB average a couple of points, but more than that he'll demand others do better, not only his team mates but everyone.
  24. Olerud363
    Wander Franco will make outs half the time, maybe a bit over half, maybe 52% of the time. However there will be no pattern, no weakness, no shift that can contain him. He will hit ground balls to the short stop but not too many. He will hit pop-ups but rarely. He will just miss a pitch and hit it 98 mph to the warning track. Mike Trout has struck out 180 times in a year (2014). That's might be OK for Mike Trout but not for Wander. Wander will be on base 48% of the time, a good portion of the other 52% will be web gems, lots of web gems. He'll make everyone else better.
  25. Olerud363
    Wander Franco There is a young Rays fan, perhaps 5 years old, all he will ever know is Wander Franco... he will never know failure. His Dad will never punch a hole through the wall, or rant on a message board that Wander isn't performing, because Wander won't give that opportunity. A legend from Day 1 without any doubt. A fastball heading towards the top of his hand? Wander avoids it with casual grace, no one even notices the moment. Legend!
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