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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Normally I don't use the spreadsheets... but I decided in this case to use one. Looked at the spread sheet collumn wRC+ since 1977 Top 4 are Barry Bonds 2001-2004 - wRC+ 212-240 However according to the spread sheet right now Vladdy JR is operating at 1994 Frank Thomas/Jeff Bagwell level. Raw numbers not quite that good but adjusted for league levels are about the same Not sure if I should believe it without watching the games myself, will get out the VHS and watch some tapes from 1994 and compare to video of Vladdy's recent at bats.
  2. Olerud363
    There are many choices Merge it with the "Send Vladdy to Indy ball thread" - we can speculate as to how 2021 Vladdy would hit in Indy ball Merge it with the "Send Rowdy to Korea thread" - we can speculate as to how 2021 Vladdy would hit in Korea, and whether Vladdy could help Rowdy find his hitting Merge it with the "Fire Charlie Montoyo thread" - can speculate as to whether Charlie has given Vladdy any hitting tips, weight loss tips, or general life hack tips that have helped Vladdy become the breakout player of 2021. Lot's of possibilities if the powers that be judge that this thread does not stand on it's own.
  3. Olerud363
    If the Blue Jays have a sign stealing system, no way they lose 6 games like they did. Just no way. Sorry. If you are sign stealing you get rallies when you need them, because you activate the system (you don't risk always sign stealing and getting caught) They Jays performance against Tampa is the opposite of sign stealing... they may have had something specific on Glassnow, but almost certainly not sign stealing because it didn't work against anyone else, and they didn't get any hits in critical situations. A good sign stealing team would of won 4/6 of the recent bad stretch.
  4. Olerud363
    And Tampa Bay and Boston just happen to get rallies just when they need them? Kind of like the Royals in the 2015 playoffs. Go 7 innings not scoring then all of a sudden get 3-5 runs just when they need them...
  5. Olerud363
    lol -- Vlad Guerrero JR 2021 161 games .344 48 131 .456 .659 - weight = 239.7 pounds 2022 159 games .321 44 128 .471 .624 - weight = 241.2 pounds winter 2022/23 signed to 10 year 425 million dollar contract 2023 128 games .274 19 72 60 % ground ball rate - weight = 287.5 pounds
  6. Olerud363
    If you don't get to watch a lot of games avoid the spreadsheets like fangraphs... not a good way to learn the game. Personally when I can't catch the game I review Mike Wilner's Twitter feed later that night. A lot of great observations. He also gives out daily reminders as to where to go for vaccination. I've used all his tips and have been vaccinated 11 times.
  7. Olerud363
    Well, now we can stop panic posting about his failure and obesity, and start panic posting about his pending trade to the Red Sox I guess it's time. He'll probably get 40 million a year in later Arb, and it will take 10/500 long term. Who are the Red Sox top prospects? Might as well pull the trigger soon, given what near free agents are getting back in trades these days.
  8. Olerud363
    It might of came from the Montreal series in 2018. Inspired by memories of Andres Galaraga "the big cat". Just a big guy who also had a super quick bat and reflexes. I think it came up again comparing video from the Montreal 2018 series, with early 2020. Lightning cat in 2018, obese cat in 2020, lighting cat again in 2021.
  9. Olerud363
    Get Springer back in the line up and either Pearson or Manaoh up with their heads on straight, and I'll agree with you.
  10. Olerud363
    I worry about this too. Likely irrational, however ... I don't know. Springer is almost f***ing 32. Tulo recency bias??
  11. Olerud363
    I have no idea if they will get healthy. If Springer and Kirk and some relievers get healthy, and Pearson and Manoah can make a decent transition to the majors, there is no doubt the Jays can make a good run in the last 100 games. I guess I'm just doubting this will happen. The 'Springer still not running' reports are just discouraging as these losses
  12. Olerud363
    Why would they be healthy next year? Injuries one year are correlated to the next, bad training staff, bad medicals, risky contracts.
  13. Olerud363
    I don't think his affect on the team's win total is anywhere near what people are making it out to be. That's not defending him, just making a point about how the win total is cooked. The claims that the Jays will never win with him are ridiculous. If everything went right in one of the next three years, the talent level could be 100 wins, Charlie isn't going to mismanage that into 85 wins. At most it would be like Cito Gaston And Cito Gaston totally mucked up the 1992 and 1993 playoffs in a way. Jack Morris getting the most starts for example... but they won anyway.
  14. Olerud363
    Not really defending him. I agree it's dumb and pointless to bunt, especially with 2 strikes. But the hitters he's bunting with probably have a collective .300 on base percentage, and if they hit with 2 strike's it's more like a .150 on base percentage, so you aren't really giving up an at bat that has lot's of value at that point. Or look at it this way. It's reasonable to assume a major league baseball team is aware of all the win probabilities in every single situation, and they have added up all of Charlie's moves and don't think it changes things too much... If the data they have does show Charlie is depressing the win total by 4 wins or something... then it's criminal that they don't fire him tonight. So I assume the numbers show Charlie doesn't have as much an effect on the games as we think... or the Jays aren't keeping track of those numbers (which if they aren't then that itself is concerning).
  15. Olerud363
    That isn't a fact. And the front office is smart enough to know that which is why he isn't being fired any time soon. The level of Charlie hate is completely irrational. These stupid moves are not costing that much. Injuries and player performance are the issue. Again, if you magically make Springer, Kirk, the bullpen healthy, and Pearson transition to the majors like McCahallahan is that would be worth 15 wins over a year. Replacing Charlie with a complete genius would be worth 1 or 2.
  16. Olerud363
    Biggio, Kirk, and Springer... that's like a .350 combined on base percentage replaced with .250 for 1/3 of the order...
  17. Olerud363
    I think the bitching about individual moves is a bit much, it isn't costing 10 games a year but people are acting like it. I don't like him but not convinced he's the only reason things are going south, or even the main one. Training staff? What team can win with these kind of injuries? Highest paid player, and 3 top bullpen arms gone.
  18. Olerud363
    I know fans freak out at the smallest thing, but this is actually a pretty incredible terrible stretch They've lost 4 games to all three rivals in 4 days. 4 game losing streak for the Jays 4+ winning streaks for everyone else. Since the Jays are playing one of the teams, chances are are about 1/8 this will happen any day (assuming teams are evenly matched, which isn't quite true). Chances are 1/4096 that this could happen, I think. So this is a 1 out of every 30 years catastrophe.
  19. Olerud363
    Also note McClanahan was pulled at 65 pitches! 65 mowing them down. Tampa is just on another level. Doesn't give a s*** what the rest of the world says. Keep the young pitchers mega rested, don't just talk high performance, but execute it.
  20. Olerud363
    These types of stretches fry my mind. It just seems the other teams in our division are working on another level. McClanahan comes up is pristine. Day one, pitch 1 is throwing strikes at 98 MPH looking like an ace. Pearson is going through his second year of growing pains, not able to throw strikes. And Pearson was the higher rated prospect on the big lists. Boston is able to keep J.D. Martinez healthy and productive, while Springer has played only 4 games. Forget about firing Charlie. Fire the high performance team and get a new one. If you could have guys healthy, and performing to their potential it's worth way more than Charlie's stupid moves cost us.
  21. Olerud363
    Last time we talked about this the following article came up. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-managers-are-headed-to-the-hall-of-mediocrity/ However this is about the manager's total effect, like looking at the question 'does the manager make Fred McGriff play better', not just strategy. The conclusion was the manger is worth a couple games maybe. However that is considering both coaching and managing so to say. So what do Charlie's dumb mistakes alone actually cost? I'm not sure. Would be interested in seeing an analysis, but need something that corrects for player performance. Like isolates the effect of bone headed bunting, from coaching (hitting tips, inspiration, etc.). Make a chart Manager strategy WAR (in game decisions like bunting) = X WAR Manager coaching tips WAR (hitting tips, inspiration, making the guys better, etc.) = Y WAR What are X and Y if anything?
  22. Olerud363
    Rowdy popped his hamstring and could barely get to first Sunday afternoon... I assume he was still recovering from that.
  23. Olerud363
    Is this really true? I doubt it. Wade Bogg's is as different from Gurriel as you can get and in his prime he had months of .470 and .250 in the same year. Doubt any type of player has more variability than another. What is true is that any hitter's bad month or two is terrible. Biggio's, Bogg's, Gurriel's, who-evers If you're on base percentage is .320, it might be .220 in a bad month... So the mediocre hitter is god-awful terrible in bad months, and if the bad month happens at the beginning of the year people notice.
  24. Olerud363
    He's the ultimate under-rated player, low average, lots of walks, medium power. Sort of defending a philosophy. On base percentage, positional flexibility, hard work, stick with guys through slumps.
  25. Olerud363
    Well Espinal doesn't have enough at bats to take his major league numbers seriously. So you have to look at minor league numbers too. The difference between them in the minors is about 30 points of on base percentage and 30 points of slugging... chances are the difference would be similar in the majors long term. Biggio is better. You might consider platooning them. Not that Biggio has much of a platoon split, but perhaps both would perform better in a part time role. Or maybe they wouldn't.
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