Olerud363

His D could swing it 2 WAR more. The top 1st basemen peak seasons, since 1980 are mostly guys like Pujols, Olerud (two 8.1 seasons), who were awesome offensively and got close to neutral defensively. Neutral defense, as compared to terrible (FG -20ish) defense will be the difference between a 6 WAR guy, and 8 WAR. This is one of those little things that a good orgnaizations with a super-high-performance team should strive for... get the -20 defense guy to -5... get the .280 on base percentage guy to .300 There is a nice little advantage, in going from god awful terrible, to slightly below average in things.

If it goes that far there is zero reason to play him the wild card game or first round. Those things are crap shoots anyway. I'd probably add him to the roster for the ALCS but only as pinch hitter and maybe DH game 5 then have him ready to play full time in the World Series.

I hope he's just a bit sore... but I doubt it. He had on off day yesterday. I can't see him being back before June. Am I being over-reactionary? I don't think so. Like I said if it didn't heal in 2 weeks, they now need to give it 3 this time, + a very slow 2 week rehab stint (the quick rehab stint didn't work).

He's already on the dl. Do you mean 60 day dl? Probably more likely then not at this point, if he really did have a setback. If 2 weeks didn't heal it they have to try 3, and then a week or 2 getting ready.

Limit of 11 pitchers on the roster. This will force relievers to go a bit longer, and throw 95 for 35 pitches instead of 105 for 11 pitches. And since they have nothing better to do with the other roster spots they will bring back the Rance Mulliniks, Frankie Cat types who can platoon with a Tabby type and together hit .303 with 11 homers with the Frank Cat guy doing most of the work Frank Cat .320 9 67 Tabbie .243 2 21

Charlie needs to address that then. Joe Panik in left field until Gurriel takes his reps in the cage.

Of course I don't know s***, and I'm not claiming I do. I'm claiming that Charlie should know... and maybe Charlie knows it is just random, and Gurriel will be fine, so no need to call Dante.

Gurriel started 2019 the same way, was sent down for 5 weeks, and came back a monster. There are 3 possibilities a) random luck Just a random 3 week cold stretch that is typical of Gurriel's skill level (Vernon Wells, George Bell, Joe Carter, etc have had these too). Gurriel has lost his skills (vax side effect, natural early decay, random batting yip that is not correctable by any means) can't do anything. Smart thing to do would be to hand him his release. c) Gurriel has not lost his skill but needs to make an adjustment (random batting yip that is correctable) This is a murky area. I sometimes think these cases separate the good organizations from the bad. If Gurriel is having a mechanical issue, and the issue is correctable, Charlie and the coaching staff should identify it and correct it. It sometimes seems that Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, find these mechanical issues right away, correct them and all their players reach full potential. I say we trade Gurriel to one of those organizations and see if he starts hitting, it would at least prove the theory.

That's above league average this year

This is an insanely terrible offense... covered up by the fact that the pitching has been insane. That being said offense is down all around.. Yankees and Tampa Bay have similar team numbers. It will be interesting to see if guys go back to trying to make more contact, hit to all fields. If swinging like a maniac led to .250 with 25 homers and 200 ks in 2019 it might only lead to .225 with 15 homers and 200 ks in 2021... so it might make sense to try and hit .270 with 5 homers by hitting to all fields. Everybody needs to be prime Joe Panik instead of Dan Uggla... So maybe playing Joe Panik and Espinal will actually makes sense (if the others can't adjust and be like them)

Same with Biggi'os Friday night

I'm still not concerned about the wins and losses. The most disappointing part of this season is every single young player taking a step back except Vlad. Some big steps back. Only April. Don't want get Ryu to be bombed, but it would be easier to take 9-7 losses with the young players not looking lost at the plate This team, like the 2013 team, won't win until they get on base...

Cito wants everyone to be Joe Carter or a young Cito... so the entire team hits .250 with a .300 on base percentage Of course if he thinks you are a hall of famer he let's you be... so Vladdy might be safe (Delgado seemed to be safe) But if Bichette was hitting .300 and Biggio .250 with lots of walks, and Kirk came around and hit .290 with walks Cito would be pissed at them... pull that f***ing ball. Stop clogging the bases. Hit like Joe! On the other hand guys that are hitting .190 with a .240 on base percentage.. htting like Joe Carter would be an improvement. Hire Cito to make everyone hitting worse than Joe Carter hit like Joe Carter! Everyone better then Joe Carter doesn't get lessons from Cito... that way the worse player is Joe Carter.

? I concede it;s early, but you can't have guys putting up .250 on base percentages... you definitely can't have a group of 5 putting up a combined .250 on base percentage. Ironically I'd hire Murph and Cito to coach Gurriel, Hernandez, and Jansen while keeping them away from everyone else. Jansen could probably be well served to try to use their approach, try to kill the 3rd base coach, hit one foul into the third deck etc. Pull dat ball! Better then what he is doing. On the other hand you wouldn't want Cito messing with Kirk, Biggio, Bichette, Vlad, Anyone who is a naturally decent hitter, who could hit to all fields and get on base, you need to never let Cito near... However if there are guys hitting worse then Joe Carter, and Cito can make them into Joe Carter, then you let Cito give them advice. Hire Cito as consultant for a few guys,... Or maybe just get Dante back

Outside of 40 game stretch last year, the team has been awful offensively under the current coaching staff. A lot of guys have absolutely tanked. Team on base percentage was .305 in 2019, .299 this year. What struck me in 2019 guys like Mckinney and Brandon Drury not being able to maintain a .300 obp... which hurts a tonne. Yes they suck, but projections and career stats indicated .250 .310 .400 0.5 WAR suck.. not .260 on base percentages. This year it's Gurriel, Hernandez, Jansen, Biggio, Panik, Kirk. As a group they could of been expected to put up a .330 obp, and it's more like .250. There is value in being able to hit .250 .300 .420 instead of .200 .250 .320... both suck, but can win with the former if you have stars, the latter will tank the team. Still early, hopefully this all changes.

Panik can also hit sac fly's, get the guy over to third with a ground ball, and sac bunts. So that is even more extra offense that he gives over Rowdy.

AL slugging percentage is down from .439 in 2019, to .414 in 2020 to .390 this year. I know announcers say the sluggers don't get going until warmer weather... but still something to watch. AL hitters are at .234 .309 .392, NL .232 .316 .390 Is it because of the deader ball? If this trend continues there might be adjustments later this year or next year. Maybe guys hitting to all fields more, trying to k less, and hitting for a better average. That is assuming the strategy for everyone to hit .250 with 200 ks and 30 homers no longer works with a deader ball...

Sure... just pointing out that there is no way to magically "right side ground ball" and sac fly your way to extra wins. You might cherry pick some games you think the Jays would of won if they hit a ground ball or sac fly at the right time, but if they took that approach they'd lose runs in the long run because it would cost big innings.... it's just like sac bunting, they wouldn't always get the grounder, or hit the fly ball deep enough, it wouldn't always work out, and sometimes when it did, it would cost them anyway, play for 1 run means missing out on big innings.

It sounds crazy but Jansen has a better lifetime WAR then Tellez. With his defense Jansen could be helpful if he can hit .200 (with a little bit of secondary skills)

Your post defies math and logic. Let's look at the last 3 games Toronto lost... 5 hits, 2 hits, 4 hits. You cannot win games with less then 4 hits a game, by aiming the ball, and always scoring each of your hits. For your sac fly's and ground balls to the right side to make a difference in these games, the Jays would of had to score every hit... it doesn't happen that way. This team would also have a winning record if Gurriel, Jansen, Kirk, Rowdy and Biggio were hitting at their career averages. That would be far more significant then hitting grounders and sac flies. In fact if it was possible to avoid strike outs and double play grounders to the short stop, all these guys would be hitting above .250 because they'd just aim the ball against the shift, to get a few hits and get out of their slumps. Boston has scored 103 runs with 7 sacrifice flies. Toronto has scored 74 runs with 6 sacrifice flies, an above average number. If Toronto added 1 more sacrifice fly they would would be tied for the league lead, go from 74 to 75 runs and still be 28 runs behind Boston. Toronto is already above average in sac flies. More sac flies won't make a difference.

I agree with this. I've always thought the most important job of the manager is player development. Hiring the right coaches, allocating playing time to the most important young players, giving sound instruction, or making sure the coaches are giving sound instruction. The team, outside of Vlad, looks awful at the plate right now. Terrible approach. Can you blame the manager for this? The coaching staff should take some blame, and the manager is the quarterback of the coaching staff. At the very least it's another demerit. It would be pretty easy to overlook Charlie's stupid mistakes if the team was hitting and the young players looking solid. You have a team that has basically been scoring 2 runs a game (outside of the 15 run game) so it's hard to overlook Charlie's other stupid mistakes.

Who are our top 4 hitters? Springer, Vlad, Bo, Biggio ? Not sure if Gurriel or Hernandez is projected better then Biggio was Those 4 line up to Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts and Verdugo without checking I would bet Boston's guys are projected better. Am I wrong?

Also what are the chances Kansas City and Boston are stealing signs? Perez, who people tell me is a pile of crap, creams 2 pitches, VGJ style, at the exact key moment... like he knew what was coming. OK. Depleted bullpen, Zeuch... but on the other side it was Salvadore Perez, who they tell me is garbage too... Boston - they tell me Boston is bad. Cora comes back. Boston is a hitting like it's 1999 or 2005 or 2018. I'm thinking of the steroid era... the first few guys get caught... it has to be over right? Of course A-Rod/Melky and some others get caught a few years later. Why would this sign stealing thing be different?

I'm trying to remember why everyone counted Boston out?? This reminds me of 2013, where the Jays were suppose to dominate but it was Boston's year, led by a great patient offense. Lesson of 2013 is that the Jays had to iterate on the talent level a couple of times before getting enough of a talent base to beat the inevitable injuries and bad luck. Boston had a strong talent base coming off a down year, but no reason to count them out. Same this year.

Ridiculous. Billy McKinney is hitting .320 this year following the career path of teenage wonder Justin Upton. Zeuch is not balls. Zuech is ground balls and the same scouts who recognized that 24 year old McKinney had the talent of 19 year old Justin Upton have starred Zeuch as an up and comer to watch. Keep watching the talent will show up eventually.