Olerud363

The Seager idea isn't instead of pitching. It's assuming you also sign a starter (Ray/Stroman/Someone Else). It's a risk but a less risky player, late 20s, in their prime will cost a tonne of prospects or 300 million. Tanner Roark was 2 years 24 million coming off of 2 WAR - that was not a good deal, it was a risk and was terrible. Seager 2 years 30 million is a risk too... The main reason I think it is a good risk is home/road splits and fWAR Not sure what to make of the batted ball data, seems he is an extreme flyball hitter, and hard hit rate has declined very, very slightly last year. Would you rather have Kirk, Martinez, Kloffenstein and Seager at 30 million, or Ramirez 2 year 25 million (or whatever it is) ?

I assume Ramirez would cost one of Moreno or Martinez so prefer to stay away. Seager is a risk, but his home/road splits are intriguing. He's significantly better than Grichuk when you consider home/road splits and defense. life time: .239 .319 .402 / .262 .322 .478 2021: .159 .245 .329 / .261 .323 .538

He's an on base guy, bats left, and his terrible season last year was better than Grichuk. If you can get him for less that would be great, but give a competitive offer. The downside is 1 WAR if he repeats last year, and the upside 4 WAR. I assume the going rate for that is about = to the qualifying offer. From what I have read he is on the bubble so other teams must value him about there. Happy to get him for lower. Main purpose is to improve the DH position. Jays DHs must of been negative WAR last year, and as I mentioned in another post the rotating DH thing isn't always a great thing, as injured or tired players are rotated in, and they aren't hitting. Full time DH would improve the team.

Resign Semien, sign Kyle Seager and Conforto, Stroman and some relievers Kyle Seager has big home/road splits, especially last year. Still not a bad player Conforto - 1 year contract rebuild value Semien - the Springer Contract Stroman - yeah social media mess, but seems like he's open to coming back so if we can't sign Ray sign Stroman Relievers - Get like twice as many as last year (I know 40 man roster space) Figure Stroman is 20 million a year, Semien 25, Seager 2 years 30 or something, Conforto 1 year 18. Rogers might have to increase payroll a bit, but why not. They'll make tonnes of money with another 90+ win team, so might as well. This is a lot of redundancy in the line-up and better left/right balance, Biggio/Espinal pushed to 10th man, and the 10th man gets 500 plate appearances anyway. Grichuk pushed to 11th or off the team. Seems like a great guy so maybe you keep him, ideally he gets 1/2 as many plate appearances. The prospect pool should be kept intact - then if reliever disasters happen early, maybe you can start flipping the B guys (Smith, Lopez) for re-enforcements.

The beta and alpha think is a joke. I think. I don't know. I started joking that Rizzo was an Alpha because he was always in the middle of every f***ing rally the Yankees had. f***ing Rizzo. Even yesterday. 9th inning. Hit a hard single in the 9th that set up the winning run. Rizzo is Alpha. Rizzo for manager.

I forgot about that because it got overshadowed by Semien's throw 2 days later. What a f***ed up season.

Everybody hates Biggio. Just make him 10th guy next year. He'll probably get 500 plate appearances anyway and can push himself into a larger role if healthy.

f*** off minor league 2020 cancelation and Moreno injury situation If Moreno played 100 games in 2020 and 110 games in 2021 we all might be a lot calmer. I'm not saying he's the next Bo Bichette, but if he is, we can't be confident in it with 30 games last two years. Plus Moreno might of been up instead of Smith/Lopez/Lamb and won a game against Detroit or something, and even if it was just 1 game he won we'd be playing tonight.

Vlad at 3rd could still be an option. I wish they'd played him and worked him out there occasionally just to keep the option open. Vlad is a negative d guy, but the way these numbers work out is his value isn't that much different at 1st or 3rd. Put Vlad at third and get Olson or Freddie Freeman, lol. I mean it's not going to happen but that would get the team up to 105 projected wins, and 95 real wins factoring in umps/luck/********.

OK. I know sliced finger Lourdes only got 4 or 5 games DH and one knee Springer maybe 20. How did it get so bad? Rowdy messed up. Panic probably DH'd some games, and Grichuk, lol Get a guy who can hit. DH position shouldn't hit .220 with a .300 on base percentage.

Do you believe in Alejandra Kirk's bat? His current lifetime stats are .245 .330 .430 or so. His minor league stats are great. He k'd only 22 times in 160 at bats this year. Walked 19. Blue Jays DHs hit .220 .305 .405 this year. Just putting Kirk there and leaving him there would improve the position even if he hit at his lifetime rate, which is low sample size, and he is young, and he should be even better a year older and hypothetically not catching. Jays DHs were horrible. If it's not Kirk it should be someone who can hit. Forget this rotating guys into it. The rotating guys are a) George Springer with one knee Lourdes Gurriel with his finger sliced in 2 No more rotating injured players into DH. It should be spot for some hitting, not a rehabilitation service.

28 homeruns though. Batting title. Stolen base title. fWAR title.

Hope the near misses (playoffs, 50 hr, probably MVP) keep Vlad motivated.

Without looking it up (and I'm not sure how to look it up) I'd say biggest drop in playoff odds were 1. 1-4 stretch against TBR and Minn while Yankees went 4-0 2. 2-6 stretch against Seattle, Washington and Detroit 3. 0-6 stretch in late May against Boston and TBR On the last day it was final, and playoff odds went from 15 to 0 or something, but those other stretches were more like going from 60 to 20 or something. So guys like JuniorFelix (the one with numbers, not the other one) are trollish, but their posts do correspond to the big drops in playoff odds.

A lot of people already had that moment after the second loss to Minnesota 10 days ago. At that point the playoff odds dropped from 70 to 20 in about 4 days... It was almost a miracle they kept it alive to the last day.

Ohtani finishes at 5.1/3 fWar for 8.1 total. Not a spectacular total for an MVP (Trout has had around 10 a few times and beat 8.1 7 times) but this year no other AL Position player gets more than 6.7. Ohtani should win MVP, a unique season, but not a historic WAR lead by any means. Vladdy finished at 6.7. Maybe there is another computer update of defense stats pending or something, but if it holds he leads AL position players. Leads league in HR (tied with Perez, but at least catcher who walks half as much as he homers didn't beat Vlad), on base, slugging, runs, total bases, times on base. Probably only 4th best offensive season in Jays history (Delgado 2000, Olerud 1993, Bautista 2011). Can he do it again? Does he have to? Can he come close? Does he have another gear? Can he pull off a 10 year run of these like Pujols and Cabrera did? Maybe the near miss in playoffs, 50 hr, triple crown, and (probably) MVP will keep him motivated and he will return as a 160 game lightning cat. Since he has no need to pull the ball for power (practically hit the second deck down the right field line yesterday), and since he can win a home run crown with 100 ks (as opposed to Judge or Stanton who k around 180 over 162) seems like there could be another gear in terms of batting average. Hit's ball hard as Stanton and Judge, but 80-100 more balls in play over 162.

Looks like Vlad took the lead back over Semien. Trea Turner wins MLB WAR. Dodgers acquired best player in baseball and best pitcher at deadline won 106 now 1 game play-in. Also the explanation isn't great but basically Semien 20 runs better on defense, Vlad 20 runs better on offense and they end up almost tied.

Thread is a little too negative What is 2022 win projection right now with talent signed? How hard is it to build back to 90+ from there? Need to keep pace with the rest of the East. I don't think TBR will be a 100 win projected team next year. Yankees and Red Sox may make improvements and mega-signings. Need to create a 'projected' team that is within a win or 2 of the other 3 and then hope win/loss luck is at least neutral... who knows it could be positive someday. Aren't losing too many projected wins next year, because the projected wins from the all star seasons didn't actually happen.

Because of injuries and the 60 game COVID season with no minor league's the Blue Jays have a huge collection of players for which we don't have a lot of data on (or as much as we would in normal times), who did not contribute in 2021 but could big-time in 2022. Pearson, Biggio, Espinal, Otto Lopez, Groshans, Moreno, Hatch, Kevin Smith, Merryweather, Kay, Kirk, Jansen and others. I include Biggio and Jansen because they only had a 60 game season in 2020, then injured in 2021. I think that's an interesting pool of talent, they won't all be contributors but some of them will. I think they are all potentially under-rated because of lack of full seasons to evaluate them and out of that pool alone 1/2 of Semien/Ray (if they do leave) replacement is there.

I don't recall claiming I'm an Alpha. I can't take any tough loss.

What? You mean all this is actually because he doesn't have a girlfriend? I thought he was an Alpha just giving a healthy dose of reality to the beta Wilner followers on this board.

I guess it depends how the rest of the bullpen looks and how they envision transitioning him to starter. Imagine the Stripling role, but a pitcher who is really good. There are a bunch of high leverage spots Stripling was actually used, and it would of been better to have Pearson instead. Also if they have it planned out it would be easier to use Pearson an inning earlier in games like Yesterday and Tuesday. Which might of helped quite a bit.

The board is a place to escape reality in some ways, but in other ways it is a microcosm of reality. Most people on this board follow the rules that make you popular in highschool, or successful in a corporate job. Read 'how to win friends and influence people' or '7 habits of highly effective people' to understand how to be popular on the board. Your negativity certainly isn't the way to go (if being popular on this board is your goal). It probably isn't your goal, but you do come off a bit trollish, like you are trying to get a rise out of some people. On the other hand your posts, taken in a probabilistic are perfectly reasonable, especially after the 3/4 losses to TBR and Minn combined with a Yankee 4 game win streak basically moved the Jays playoff odds from 70% to 25%. I'd recommend you add some nuance, though it probably wouldn't help. For example right now the Jays have something like a 15% chance of making the playoffs, so it is not zero. Perhaps you could throw a bone and acknowledge there is still a small chance, but not much of one.

So on point. I hope this makes it easier to make these decisions next year if situation arises. Hoping a high leverage game will involve pulling starter early if situation and stats dictates, no matter how good the guy is first 2 times through.

Doubt he holds up as a normal starter... should aim to get 100 innings of fairly high leverage, Shane McLanahan has 125 good innings, started late, 5 innings a start, must of skipped a couple of starts too. Honestly the 5-2-5-2 thing could be the way to go. He seemed to respond to that.