Olerud363

2017 DL Hall LHP 21 2018 Grayson Rodriguez 11 2018 Cadyn Grenier SS 37 2019 Adley Rutschman C 1 2020 Heston Kjerstad OF 2 2020 Jordan Westburg SS 30 2021 Colton Cowser OF 5 2022 Jackson Holliday 1 Orioles first round picks since 2017. Except for Grenier, who maybe quit or got released or something, they are all still highly ranked and all set to make an impact very soon. All set to hit together, on a competitive team with full service time left. Blue Jays fans are slightly excited that Spencer Horwitz is hititng .320 .420 .420. Orioles prospect all hit .320 .420, with 10 homers instead of 1. Have 1st round draft pedigree, and play all across the defensive spectrum. So... 1. Take Spencer Horwitz and duplicate him 5 times 2. Make the duplicates 2-5 years younger 3. Give the duplicates high first round draft pedigree 4. Give the duplicates 10 times the homeruns (instead of 1 homer give them 10 or so) It's having Bo and Vlad ready, with 3 other prospects almost as good, and the team already contending on the day they show up. The farm system is ridicolous. Even if they are a mediocre organization they can't screw this up. If they are a good organization (which they are) this is going to be really scary.

Not sure about Rutchman, but Druw Jones was the top ranked player in the draft last year on most lists. I saw lists with Holliday 3rd but Orioles correctly identified the best talent when it wasn't totally obvious at the time. They've done a great job at identifying the right player to take 1/1 when they were handed that slot.

They signed Lyles after their horrible 2021 as just a guy to fill space, then replaced him with Gibson this year. Judging by lifetime stats that was a small upgrade, and in retrospect a huge move (as Lyle as fallen apart while Gibson has been a reliable innings eater. Adam Frazier was a good move, equivalent to Whitt Merrifield, because they already had young infielders and don't want to block anyone, but Frazier is a guy who can fill in when needed repectfully without blocking a spot. Those moves actually hint that Baltimore is a very good franchise.

No. I said they are a hive mind, which means stupid individually but they can recognize some things all together. Kind of like bees. Absolutely not saying any individual fan who thinks we should hit Merrifield lead off or something (sorry to the 'let's get witty' thread starter) have any intelligence. Wilner is smarter than most of them individually. Just saying that a lot of times when the hive of fans gets panicky it corresponds with big changes in the playoff probabilities. So like this week Wilner is like 100 games left, still on pace for 96 wins, I mean 91, I mean 85. Still in a playoff spot, I mean still within 2 games of a playoff spot, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile Joe fan somehow gets that they playoff odds have gone down quite a bit, while Wilner just acts like everything is the same as it was 10 days ago.

Exactly. One thing I've found to be true over the years is that the fan hive mind is much better than the Wilner/Stoeten corporate fake positivity ********. Every time the fans 'panic' and Wilner/Stoeten give them the 'we are still on pace for...', 'still only 3 games out of a playoff spot', still 100 games to go...' the playoff probabilities have taken a huge hit in the cluster of games the fans are complaining about, the insufferable fans get it, Wilner/Stoeten don't. Last 2 weeks have dropped Jays playoff chances from a high of about 85% to now 50%. That is a huge drop, and has changed this season from a comfortable ride to the playoffs, to at the best a stressful grind to a wild card spot and at the worst a 2013 like season. The nature of the season has completely changed, the upside way lower, the downside way worse. Of course 50% chance of making the playoffs mean they still could but even if so the rest of the year is now a stress-fest.

I agree with all of this. With Varsho there was a bunch of publicly available positive indicators that made the trade look good at the time. 1. Like you mention Varsho only had 900 ABs going into 2023. 2. Had good minor league average (.300) and k/bb 3. Was entering age 26 season which should be his prime. 4. Was athletic and had great base-running and defensive stats. Anyone with an internet connection could find all that out so trade made sense. However front office should have better information than random fans with an internet connection. Watching Varsho just looks like he both can't hit and can't lay off of high velocity. That's my totally unskilled scouting report from watching 1/2 a game a day. Also seems like a nice outfielder but that the stats over-rated him last year. Obviously I'm not a scout and this is all in hindsight, but just seems like the guys in the scouting room should have talked about this kind of stuff last December. Another example is Austin Martin. In hindsight he was obviously just a pretty typically coillege kid. Polished but no power or exit velocity. Easy to see looking up his stats 3 years later. But how could a professional baseball organization not pick this up before using a 5th pick on him ? To be fair, that happens all the time, but as a fan it's frustrating.

The only thing I remember that was comparable was Juan Soto and he was called up after about 40 games of this. Like 15 at low, 15 at a, and only 8 and aa.

Adam Frazier could be replaced by Jackson Holliday in a few weeks. People (myself included) that think the Orioles could be a powerhouse as of now, think that Rodriquez will be good soon, that Tyler Bradish and Wells are decent, that one way or another Adam Frazier won't be hitting 5th regularly, and that they have the prospects and payroll space for additions as soon as this trade deadline. Edit: The thought is they are also a Tampa Bay Rays level organization who can make the most out of s***ing 5 inning pitchers by using their bullpen well.

Vladdy's has hit like a legend in Sahlen (Buffalo), Tor TD (Dunnedin), Fenway, Yankee Stadium Camden, like Darlton Varsho in Tropicana and very mediocre at Rogers Center. It might be nothing, his great season just happened to be that year for other reasons. Checked and he hit about the same home/away last year, his only full year at Rogers Center. TOR-Rogers Ctr .264 .329 .460 .790 TOR-Sahlen Field .322 .398 .656 1.054 BOS-Fenway Pk 37 .345 .434 .592 1.025 NYY-Yankee Stad3 .296 .354 .614 .968 TBR-TropicanaFld .215 .287 .315 .602 BAL-Camden Yards .341 .389 .564 .952 TOR-TD Ballpark 21 .410 .521 .897 1.418

That is ironic then because they are hitting for a lower average and on base percentage than the last 2 years. So whatever they are doing it actually hurt the team batting average and on base as team hit about .265 last year and .258 this year last I checked. Actually last year they were first in batting average, on base and slugging. Why would a team that is first in everything change it's philosophy too much? And they were 3rd best in not striking out. If they really decided to try and strikeout even less and it backfired, another reason to fire all the low performance team and s***** hitting strategists. The player changes are basically Varsho replacing Teoscar, Belt replacing Gurriel, and Kiemaier replacing Tapia. I think projections for those 3 would actually be pretty even, so most of the loss is underperformance (Varsho/Springer/Kirk)

I'm with the posters who are complaining about the pitching development, except it applies to both hitting and pitching development at the minor and major league level. The Daulton Varsho trade itself doesn't bother me, it's the fact that he comes here and at an age when he should improve he has regressed and looked awful. Maybe that is just who he is, but his minor league numbers, Arizona numbers, athleticism indicated he could be something age 26-29. Instead he's a more athletic Cavan Biggio (so far). And the secondary guy they give up for Varsho, Gurriel rebounds with a new organization, addressing last years flaw (power). So what was up with Gurriel anyway last year? He goes from 30 homer power in 2019/20 to 5 homer power in a full 2022? Now back to his old power? Was it injury? Hitting mechanics. Hitting strategy? A weird power slump

They aren't firing their second manager in 1 year without a major organizational changes. If it is bad enough to fire Schneider, they need to fire Atkins and very carefully choose the right replacement. The best time to Fire Atkins is right now. New guy shouldn't fire Schneider until end of year. New guy needs to be in their right now to prepare for trade deadline stuff and draft. Then after taking care of those two go on to manager, coaching staff, high performance team. I don't see them firing Atkins until end of year, so no way they fire Schneider. Sucks that they won't fire Atkins tonight, as now he'll be doing draft and trade deadline and his crappy low performance team will be in charge of development the rest of the year.

The issue is outside of Manoah they haven't acquired, traded for and developed much talent from their losing cycle 2017-2019. Vlad was signed in 2015, Jansen drafted in 2014, Bo, Kirk, Moreno signed/drafted in 2016. Gurriel in 2017. Stroman trade was useless. 5th overall pick became useless. Pillar/Donaldson traded too late. None of the little trades they made at the deadline (other than Hernandez in 2017) got much of use I don't think. If they had won 110 games a year from 2017 to 2019 Manoah wouldn't be here, but other than that not sure anything would be different about the team. Even the Chapman trade was done with assetts a winning team could have. So there was no rebuild. This team is made of players acquired during the 2 ALCS years basically, and free agents vet-trades. No 'rebuild' type moves have worked at all.

Hitting strategist is suppose to help them anticipate how the pitcher will approach them and what pitch and location to look for. So theoretically they should help Varsho stop swinging at high fastballs, and look for pitches he can handle. Related are advanced proprietary pitching machines that some teams have that I assume are even more advanced than ones sold commercially (which look they are getting pretty advanced). If you are interested here is an article on what the good teams do... https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-hitting-coaches-ryan-fuller-matt-borgschulte-20220404-tq2f7ozmn5dodng7hptoertxli-story.html I can't get past the paywall, but I assume for the good teams like Baltimore that the role of 'hitting strategist' job would be to work with these guys in the cage, program the machine to their weaknesses, and get them drills and a program to help recognize the pitches they are struggling with. So in the Varsho example the hitting strategist should program the machine to throw a combination of high fastballs and other pitches at Varsho, to help him start recognizing them better. Above is what the good teams like Tampa Bay and Baltimore do, now who knows what the hitting strategist does in Toronto.

They should trade everyone, fire everyone and bring the ballpark renovations to the next level next year play in exhibition stadium or Buffalo and punt a season or two. I guess it starts with firing everyone too so they can make good Vlad/Bo trades with 2.5 years left. Send Varsho and Kirk and Manoah down as not to waste anymore of their f***ing service time until they figure things out. Keep them down until you get an extra year of all 3. Get the ownership on board to tank for 3 years but come back like the Orioles in 2026. 2024 and 2025 are Dark but played in Buffalo. Get talent any single way you can of, draft, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, China, add an extra minor team (if that is allowed anymore). Get people who know what the f*** they are doing to run the pitching lab and the hitting lab.

Updated with today's wonderful effort against the Orioles. Rays 2-1 (2-1) Yankees 2-1 (4-2) (happiness maybe Jays are good) Red Sox (0-4) (4-6) (f***!) Yankees 1-3 (5-9) (f***!) Orioles 0-2 (5-11)

Rays 2-1 (2-1) Yankees 2-1 (4-2) (happiness maybe Jays are good) Red Sox (0-4) (4-6) (f***!) Yankees 1-3 (5-9) (f***!) Orioles 0-1 (5-10) Missing anything?

The above moves were obvious to me because I've been watching baseball since the 80s and seen the great hitters, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Ruben Sierra (1988 only), and Pat Tabler (based loaded only). I knew Arriez is a batting title winner and was available. I've also very closely watched the trend of good teams getting guys from Japan, like Ichiro, Matsui and Ohtani, and just watching some video of the Japanese league knew that Yoshida is the guy we needed.

Perfect lineup card is Keirmayer Merrifield Bichette Guerrero Champman Jansen Belt Springer Varsho This gets the fast hot hitters near the top and the bad ones near the bottom. In the offseason should have traded Kirk for Luis Arriez and signed Yoshida lineup would be Arriez 2B Bichete SS Yoshida DH Guerrero 1B Chapman 3B Kiermayer CF Gurriel LF Moreno C Springer RF That line up would be perfect with a near .400 hitter leading off, good left right balance, great pure hitter in Yoshida, and 2 .300 hitters in Gurriel 7 and 8. Springer would be second lead off so would still be comfortable.

If the Orioles don't have to waste 9 million on a part time DH, a few million on a second full time catcher, 20-25 million on the Jose Berrios and George Springers of the world I wonder what they will be wasting that 50 million a year on ? There are a couple of left handed hitting sluggers (one can also pitch a bit), perfect for their park, coming on the market in the next 2 years. Even if they don't make an Ohtani, Soto level splash (which they should if they can convince the player come, and the 95+ wins they'll get this year will help) they will still have completely clear payroll heading into the next two or 3 free agent seasons.

The game last night increased my worries about the short and long term future a lot. The announcers announced that Rutchman is leading the league in times on base. I had no idea. How can a catcher lead the league in times on base? How could they get enough PAs? I guess by hitting 2nd, playing catcher 75% of the time, and DHing the other 25%. So I guess the Orioles don't need to carry a second full time catcher because their full time catcher can catch 120 games, and they don't need to waste 8 million on Brandon Belt because their full time catcher hits like 28 year old Belt, and can DH 40 games, and they can fill in the other DH games with 1/2 rest days, and finding time for their other 20 MLB ready prospects.

What's wrong with Spanky? Isn't he just trashing negative fans to various degrees? How about banning the insufferable negative fans? Guessing Grayson's has his first awesome game, Orioles rested bullpen is dynamite but they don't need them. Adley on base 5 times, and Gunnar Henderon on base 4 as he gets his season stats looking respectable on his way to a great season. Ortiz first major league homerun. Mahoah 4+ innings 8 earned runs 7 walks (patient Orioles) but Wilner and Stoeten defend him and passively aggressively diss Orioles. Wilner - Manoah doesn't look good right now but it's a long season. Stoeten - The insufferable negative fans have never seen a player slump before. Wilner - Despite being on base 4 times Henderson only hitting .220 .370 .370. A lot to prove yet. Stoeten - Kirk and Rutchman have the same skill set. Give it 6 weeks and Kirk could look better. Blue Jays Message board bans all negative fans and invites Wilner and Stoeten to become celebrity positive posters.

Orioles - we have the best hitting prospect of all time and he can play short stop and is only 19 Blue Jays - we have a guy getting on base in Buffalo, he's 24 and has a great swing (no power), and one poster on the board said he has a 3% chance of being Lyle Overbay Orioles - We developed an elite bullpen out of scraps Jays - We traded our silver slugger outfielder for our best reliever who is as good as your 7th best, and we got this guy Pop coming off the DL hopefully soon. Orioles - Our patient young all star catcher is fit as a fiddle, and is putting up a .430 on base percentage, and will give 650 PAs from the second spot leading the league in times on base. Jays - Our patient young all star catcher has an obesity issue so we limit him to playing 4 times a week, he will give us 400 PAs from the seventh spot. Orioles - Our random outfielders that developed nicely (Hayes, Mullins, Santander) are hitting .290 .350 .490 as a group. Jays - We traded our best prospect and another outfielder for a guy who is hitting like .220 .290 .350, and our other guy we signed for 150 million looks like he's aged to be a .220 .290 .350 hitter too.

BIG UPDATE of all the new dark years players that will lead us in the mid to late 2020s Buffalo Rafael Lantiqa 25 - Reed Johnson/Kevin Pillar type - 4/5 .330 .444 .541 like .260 .340 .450 career Schneider 2b 24 - 3 walks, .250 .340 .440 type career and this year Howritz - 2/4 walk , .318 .440 .420 this year .300 .400 .440ish career LYLE OVERBAY TYPE POWER WILL COME Clement 1/1 age 27 like .900 OPS and 2 strikeouts (maybe 4) New Hampshire Martinez - like 3rd 0/4 night in a row after some 2 homer games. f*** you. Only gets homers never singles, Palmegiani 23 2/3 or something last night .252 .407 .430 this year .248 .363 .469 career Dylan Rock?? 24 but 2022 8th round pick, already in aa .297 .343 .500 this year, bad last year, interesting thing is he got to aa real fast (though not real young) Pitcher - Dallas, good game, good stats, know nothing about him other than that (Other smarter posters talk about him above) Vancouver Rainer 22 years old, .304 .388 .422 DeJusus 21 years old, .202 .266 .377, .262 .360 .424 career, at least he is not hitting .140 like Martinez (but wait til aa if he gets there)! Tirotta 24 (elderly) .325 .418 .597, .256 .358 .416 career Quick note - in my stats scouting opinion Dylan Rock is a way better prospect, maybe an actual prospect but Tirotta isn't despite impressive numbers. Tirotta has lots of at bats to prove he sucks, Jays (presumably) saw something in Rock that they threw him right to aa and he's holding his own and hasn't shown he sucks at any level (yet). Rock may suck soon but for now he's interesting. Kasevich - no idea if he can play short well. 4/4 up to .283 .382 .304. No power at all. Hardly strikes out. Can he be a David Eckstein type? Dunnedin Peyton Williams .282 .382 .469 on the year big dude 22 years old Tucker Toman - hitting .239 .371 .342 poverty class version of Jackson Holliday. Nice walk rate. I heard he has some warning track power. Good news is Jackson Holliday doesn't have much room to get better, he's already a .400 .500 .800 hitter at about the level of Juan Soto and did Juan Soto ever get better after 19? Did A-Rod get better after his batting title at age 20? So they could call Jackson up right now, and he'd hit .320 .420 .500 and the Orioles would win 110 games, and maybe he'll do that but Tucker, unlike Jackson Holliday, Tucker Toman could get better, could improve. So f*** you Jackson Holliday! In 2027 when you win the triple crown and become the first 50/50 guy andlead the Orioles to their 5th straight division title breaking their own wins record and becoming the first team to win 120+, I'm routing for a wacky 2027 'Dark Years' Jays team, to come back from a 68 win 2026, sneak into the playoffs with a 84-78 record and a 690-720 win differential, led by Roden, Dylan Rock, Horwitz and Lantiqua, and Tucker Toman who hit .238 .320 .391 but somehow gets the winning hit in a freakish playoff series and sends Jackson home sad

The sustainable winner thing isn't ********, or do you mean ******** for this front office? For some reason they did a great job getting talent in 2015-2016. Wasn't Moreno, Vlad, Kirk, Bichette all acquired in 2015 (Vlad under AA) and 2016. What talent did they acquire after their losing seasons 2017-2019? Isn't the entire point of a 'cycle' that you get the talent after the losing seasons because of better draft positions and international signing bonus? Payroll is down during losing seasons, then you re-invest during winning and if you do it right get a long run (up to 10 years). The Orioles are all of a sudden way ahead with only 2 extra years of losing, and have turned their losing seasons into Jackson Holliday, Rutchman, etc. They are winning without yet investing in payroll. Our losing seasons resulted in nothing (the high end talent was actually drafted/signed after winning seasons). Jays have what is all of a sudden a useless Jose Berrios, George Springer, Ryu, maybe Kikuchi acquired with their payroll. What a waste. Stroman, 130 million dollars and the 5th overall pick turned into Jose Berrios, that transaction sequence summarizes the shittiness of all this. Orioles on pace to win 100+ without yet making one prospect trade or signing. They are on pace for a 10 year run as they start trading prospects and using money. Rays and Braves and Mariners signing key pieces to 10+ year deals. Jays have what ? Two stars who are the spot where Washington traded their star?