Olerud363

Alan Roden is hitting .300 .426 .459 in Vancouver Spencer Horwitz like except Roden is a bit bigger (maybe will be able to generate more power), has a bit better k rate and k/bb, and has played 0 games at 1b, all games in the outfield. low sample size though (these guys can collapse to nothing at any moment).

Also - when I say 'great, great organization' I'm not talking about the last 20 years history of the organization just the current regime, Mike Elias, graduate of Yale, graduate of Houston Astros, certified genius, ethical, an alpha, I think he also has a side kick. This whole 'they sucked for 5 years in a row' thing is wrong. First they were good in 2016 and ran out the same guys in 2017 and were neck in neck with the Jays. In 2018 they collapsed unexptedly, and then Elias was hired in December 2018. Both Jays and Orioles sucked in 2019. Orioles more and got a better draft. Did it matter that the Jays won 67 instead of 57 that year? The differences start with how they handled Covid. Of course going in to 2020 no one knew Covid would happen. Jays started building for a run with the Ryu then Springer signings, and did make some savy pickups (Ray, Semien). Orioles held off on really trying, assessing that revenue would be down in 2020 and 2021 anyway. So current regime really only tanked 3 years, 2 of them Covid years.

Issue with this narrative is that the Os haven't called up any of their high first rounders yet except for Rutchman. Their current really good team is entirely built on developing lower round picks, savy trades, getting the most out of guys. Current Orioles - mostly built from saviness and only a 60 million dollar payroll Future Orioles - several prospects hitting .320 .420 .620 to come, one 'greatest ever' prospect hitting .390 .500 .700 to come, payroll could be increased by 100 million (this market isn't Tampa Bay and still drew a million+ in their horrible seasons).

I totally don't understand why people are dismissing this. There is absolutely variation on how fast people can recover from an explosive effort. Pitch clock is 15 to 20 seconds, and the recovery time for a pitcher between pitches, follows a statistical distribution like every other variable. So recovery time varies from a a to b, likely something like 10 to 25 seconds, and Manoah could be closer to 25 thus is really hurt by the pitch clock.

Stroman, the 5th pick and 140 million for Berrios was a very bad trade/draft/sign sequence. 3 related transactions bad at each aspect.

# Playoff wins Olerud/Alomar Blue Jays = 17 # Playoff wins Bautista/Donaldson Blue Jays = 10 # Playoff wins Delgado/Wells Blue Jays = 0 # Playoff wins Vladdy/Bichette Blue Jays = 0 Will Vladdy Bichette era get even 1 playoff win? Will they move to 3rd place?

AL East Payrolls according to USA Today NY Yankees $276,999,872 Toronto Blue Jays $209,938,983 Boston Red Sox $181,207,484 Tampa Bay Rays $73,184,811 Baltimore Orioles $60,722,300

If you really want to get creative start playing Varsho at catcher sometimes and Horwitz in left. Does anyone know how Varsho was as a catcher?

Here is an example of why the Orioles are a great, great organization. They traded their closer and got another guy, Yennier Cano or something who is now an even better reliever than Lopez, another guy they got Cade Povich or something has 55 ks in 35 innings at aa. And I haven't even looked at the other 2 guys they got in that trade. Well I just did. Don't worry it's just an 18 year old lottery ticket and a 22 year old lottery ticket...

Gunnar Henderson now up to .206 .340 .390 or so after a slow start. Every Baltimore prospect walks a tonne and hits for power. So are able to carry a .200 average for a while and still contribute. Henderson is a 22 year old prospect and Cavan Biggio a 28 year old failure, but they have similar skill sets (Henderson obviously more skilled with a super high ceiling). I think Toronto should release Biggio and hope he gets picked up by a good organization and then see what they do with him. If Biggio goes back to being a .240 .370 .400 contributor that will be a clear signal that something is seriously wrong with this organization, and mass firings can begin.

Well Colby never averaged 4 WAR a season. He went like -1 (in 2 months), 1.2, 3.9, and 1.5 in his 3 and half years with the Jays. I don't think Jays will be happy with a Colby like performance with one decent year and hitting .220 with a .280 on base for the other years.

Isn't it 100% that the Rays win 2-0 and lots people, Radio guys, TV guys, BJMB guys all say... well, should of saved a couple of those runs from last night for today!

Predicted final numbers Gurriel .325 31 105 Moreno .329 11 88 (batting title) (baserunners destoryed 21/29 until they give up and don't try to steal 2nd half) Varsho .182 14 48 (gets life advice from his MSP Colby Rasmus and takes a break or 2 to go the farm and think about things) (MSP stands for Most Similar Player)

It only looks bad when you compare to the Baltimore system with everyone hitting .320 .420 .600 except Jackson Holliday who is hitting about .390 .500 .700. A lot of our guys are doing something. Like Kasevich, Roden, Horowitz, are all hitting .300 and getting on base at a very good rate and have good k/bb but no power, hopefully that is no power 'yet'. Toman is Jackson Holliday light. Very light. Teenage short stop with power, walks and is doing fine for now. Hope is he develops a bit and gets better. Have to wait and see. Also they are building a lot of character. When Orelvis Martinez has a slump like Varsho is right now, it will actually seem like a hot streak to him compared to how he hit in the minors.

Big day comes. Laika does interviews. Laika grills them. Asks very smart questions. Very smart. High (a.k.a. low) performance team just laughs their ass off. f*** you Laika. You think this job is easy? We have 10 special pitching machines. We put these guys in front of it and turn it low slider mode and tell them not to swing, they swing anyway, we give them every hitting tip known to man, they have 3 nutritionists each and some of them still show up looking like Norm from Cheers. You watch Cheers? Older show. Karl Malone not the best mailman ever. Sorry that dates me. Maybe you are younger. Anyway I'd quit but I don't get as good severance, you are welcome to fire me though. Good f***ing luck with these guys.

Special announcement. Laika is very smart guy, smart guy knows how system works gets money, then knows how funding works gets investors, has social skills and knows a bit about persuasion, all of a sudden very special announcement. Special funding group put together to buy Toronto Blue Jays with Laika as chairman of the board. First day after purchase Laika decides to interview all the departments. However Laika very clever, holds off interviews and decides to do some research first. Laike very good at digging. Has some contacts with NY Yankees, Tampa Bay, quietly talks to his contacts and asks very special questions. Laika arm chair fan but digs into numbers. He has this theory about Vladdy Guerrero Jr. Asks other teams, good teams, about hitting. What is hitting strategists? What is special hitting coordinator? What is special pitching machines? What psychologists and drills do hypothetically guys like Aaron Judge talk to? How to get most of hitters. Laika digs, digs, digs, asks questions. Then big day comes. All departments must report to Laika for special interview. Love to be a fly on the wall and hear interview with Toronto Blue Jays special hitting coordinator, hitting strategists, and "high" (a.k.a. low) performance team when Laika grills them on exactly what they do all day.

Judge also swings way less especially out of zone. I think Vlad swings 34% out of zone, and Judge 24%.

He's like 80 isn't he. Pull dat ball. Might work. Vlad, Bo, Chapman, Springer, Kirk, Jansen, Varsho PULL THAT f***ING BALL. None of these little loopers the other way. (credit to Laika he wrote a big essay on 'pull dat ball' last year when the offense looked downb. Not sure I buy it, at least if it comes with a .300 team on base percentage, but might be better than what we are seeing right now).

I am wondering if he's healthy. 2 years ago he was Judge like with the iconic swing and no doubt power routinely hitting 115 mph 25 degree monster shots. Now he's not. He hasn't homered since his wrist, then knee issues, it's s*** like this that just makes me think Toronto is not a good organization. Judge has a hip blip and he's immediately DL'd for 10 days, sent to some secret high performance lab for rehabilitation then comes back and single handedly wins 3 games for the Yankees last week. Vlad has a wrist and knee blip and basically is back in a couple of days missing 10 mph of exit velocity. Good organization vs bad.

Right. And they were like 85% 8 days ago.

1989 Jays started 12-24, 92 and 93 teams had slumps, the year Washington won the World Series in 2019 they started slow. 2015 Jays started 21-28 or something so were worse at this point. The reason a lot of people are more worried this year is because Jays seem to be all of a sudden way behind the curve in player development, analytics and high performance. Jays now are basically eliminated from the division, and very unlikely they get a homefield wild card series unless you think the Jays can outplay the Orioles by 7 games the rest of the way. They are 2.5 games behind a playoff spot and will have to fight with 3 or 4 teams for that. So not really the slump that is the problem, but the slump in context with major improvement by other teams.

I think he is just an opener, but still, they should hammer him for a couple of runs than hammer the bulk guy for 5 more. They probably won't though. Another advantage of the opener is that they can work with him for a couple of hours before the game going over who he is going to face, and every pitch he'll throw to each of them. Normally when a reliever comes in it is a bit random who he faces, may or may not be guys on, may be in the middle of an inning. They can also give him his redbull at exactly the right time so it has maximum effect by gametime.

Do you think Jays fans would be any happier with a string of 78 win seasons where they have no chance because the other teams in the divisions are winning 105? Is it a big difference between a 58 win season not being in contention for one day and a 78 win season? Anyway I really don't think fans are wanting the Jays to tank, the fans just want to see better outcomes given whatever circumstances are presented. July 28th 2019 organization has Vlad, Bo, Jansen, Gurriel, Hernandez, Kirk, Moreno, Biggio, Manoah, and others, a Stroman trade to make, an upcoming 5th overall pick, and permission to expand payroll to 200 million for several years. Would the Orioles management team done a better job with that circumstance? Would AA ? Kind of a silly and unfair question, because it was this management team that mostly got them to that point, but decisions starting at trade deadline 2019 are what is being questioned. Edit: Also had Pearson who in 2019 looked like one of the if not the best pitching prospect in the game.

Nobody is saying they want to be a losing team for 25 years. What happened to the Orioles after 2017 was more them reacting intelligently to bad circumstances. In 2017 Orioles and Jays were the same. In 2018 Orioles collapsed to .290 out of no where. Then they reacted to that pretty well. Instead of a useless attempt back to 70 wins they just let another bad year happen, then the Pandemic, and they let this go on 2 more years in an environment where there were no and then limited fans. The moment things normalized in 2022 they won 85, and now might win 95 this year. Timed it perfectly. Really 3 years where they were expected to be horrible (2 in a pandemic). The 1st year of being horrible just came out of no where. What fans want is for the Jays to react to whatever circumstances they are presented with intelligently. If the division is going to be real tough for 4 years and it doesn't look like Jays have the right core, does it make sense to keep on trucking through 80 win seasons for 3 years? Or do something dramatic? Acquire a bunch of young talent every way they can and build a stronger base for the next win cycle.

It happens all the time though, like some Mickey guy the Phillies took a few years ago (though he's hot right now with LA). Or another year where Astros took Bregman 2nd and Rockies took a no one 3rd. I don't actually know the pre-draft ranking were that year, but who knows if the 2 players were close and Houston just did really good research and it wasn't just luck they chose the right guy. Or 2020, when Orioles and other teams passed on Austin Martin. Despite being ranked 1 on some lists. Actually the guy the Orioles took ahead of Martin in 2020 is Kjerstad, was injured for 2 years, now is back and another dude hitting like Mickey Mantle in the high levels of their system. Even with all the high round picks, the Orioles have either done a stellar job of avoiding duds and getting real good players.