Olerud363

If Roden is 'above average' in LF he still might be negative yes, could range from -1 to -20. He probably will be negative but how negative is the important question. The positional adjustment is 'intended' so that a player will be rated the same no matter what position they play. So for example a great defender like Daulton Varsho should the same fangraphs defensive rating in lf or cf. Same with Brantley. So you should be able to compare 2 players playing different positions, or a player who changes positions. In practice I don't think it works out like that always, because of various quirks. baahhh... others know more. Intuitively to me it has always seemed that this doesn't work. That when moving to the difficult position, even with positional adjustment the player may end up being really good or bad. Take Brantley and Varsho. I think the difference between is way more as center fielder then left fielders. I don't know. I think Tango came on and explained it all, except people who loved Vlad or had other pet peeves were rude to him. As a casual I just will look at Roden and Horwitz fangraphs d-number if they play a lot. If is like -20 that tells me something, if it is -1 that tells me something better, I don't expect either to be positive, how negative is the only question.

The rating with positional adjustment is all that matters for the final fWAR number. If Roden is below average "for a left fielder" than that will be bad. That's not what I've heard. If Horwitz is below average for a 1b men than that will be bad. However the scouting reports are mostly that they aren't good enough for more difficult positions (like center field, or second base) but we don't know how they will turn out as lf/1b. And yes. Just look at the number with positional adjustment. That is what is used to calculate WAR. That number is an attempt to work out the player's "actual defensive ability". It doesn't always work but the intention is that the number won't change as the player changes position. If you want to know if a player is good at defense or not, the number with positional adjustment is the one to use. Good for a left fielder or first baseben, isn't 'good overall'. Even among left fielders and 1b men there is variation which usually goes from like -5 to -20, and we want Roden/Horwitz to come out towards the higher end.

According to fangraphs Brantley has only had 1 + defensive season and that was like 0.4. Was never a plus defender https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-brantley/4106/stats?position=OF In 2015 had a 3.5 WAR season with 15 homers and -10 defense. In 2014 had a 6.5 WAR season with -5 defense. The board has a collective blind spot when it somes to intuition as to how value works out... constantly hear so and so doesn't have the power to be worth anything... which is true if they .240 with 10 homers 20 walks and 150 strikeouts. But these contact guys can work out fine if a) they get some walks they have some doubles and 15 homers or something c) they aren't Vlad Guerrero Jr. on defense. One interesting example that is brought up is Lyle Overbay. Lyle did all this but was never a big WAR guy. Lyle actually had Vlad Guerrero Jr. like baserunning and defense though. If you could hit like Overbay and keep a -5 defense rating, and a -2 baserunning (in fangraphs system) that's like a 4 WAR player. Roden/Howritz road to happiness a) hit like Overbay be not as bad at defense and baserunning as Lyle Overbay was according to fan graphs.

His career averages are great. 20, 21, and 22 were all similar. 2023 is the outlier, but still decent in itself. I think he had an injury in 2023. Before that was tracking to big time power development. Some call him the next Mike Trout (some being the frenchsoup guy). I won't go that far. I call him a .290 .350 .400 hitter with good defense. Or the center field version of Spencer Horwitz. There is a lot of variation to his outcomes. If he comes in low it's a waste of money. If he comes in high it's a superstar.

His numbers in 2022 were amazing and much better than Kim's. Kim has been like a 5 WAR player. His K-rate is phenomenal. The upside is huge. Another way to look at it is how would you rate a triple a player with those numbers? What if Horwitz was a centerfielder with great defense and baserunning? Of course no one is saying he is going to hit .340 in MLB. But reasonable translation is .290 .350 .400 or something and if his defense is good that is good player.

This is basically bond trading. I assume each year they have to put away the 'present day' value of the deferred part. So at 5% interest rate environment it would be 45 million or so. If interest rates collapse it could be much more... if interest rates go up much less. No big deal for LA Dodgers. But if KC Royals do this with Bobby Witt Jrs 575 million dollar contract they might get into issues if there is unexpected interest rate swings.

It's equivalent to him buying U.S. treasury bonds with his money. If interest rates go down this is a great deal for Ohtani, if interest rates go up a bad deal. I wonder if he could sell his future earnings to a hedge fund? Like if the Dodgers owe him 700 million paid out from 2034 to 2044, can he sell it for 300 million dollar lump sum or something? Like a bond.

The failure of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Alek Manoah implosion and feud? The Berrios getting pulled after 2 innings. All the 2023 Toronto hitters under-performing. Compared to the 100 win a year operation that is the LA Dodgers with mid-late career guys like Betts, Freeman, and JDM playing like gang-busters? The evidence is in terms of training, coaching staff, and operational environment the LA Dodgers > Toronto Blue Jays.

And the sad hard truth is 1. Toronto did not get outbid 2. Rogers could easily have beat the deal he got. 2. Toronto did not sell him on coming to Toronto.

It's half a joke. The rich guys, like the real rich hedge fund and tech guys, put significant effort into planning for this. Though most have an escape plan from LA. Just saying if you really are worried about it escape from Toronto would be easier. The joke was just based on the idea that Ohtani needed the Dodgers to put away 68 million in cash, which wouldn't make sense unless you really thought the world could go to hell.

That clears up a lot 1. It's a 10 year 450 million dollar (or so) Contract 2. Luxury tax hit will be 45 million dollars a year. 3. Ohtani (for his own reasons) prefers the Dodgers set aside the 45 million dollars in a safe interest accruing investment. 4. I assume above has to be U.S. treasuries or aaa graded investment bonds? (you can't just put your 45 million into your 5% CIBC savings account, well maybe you can, but there is no guarantee you get 5% even early next year). 5. Ohtani is not protected against U.S. default or WW3. He should have came to Toronto where they would bought him a private plane stationed at Billy Bishop airport (short Helicopter ride from Rogers Center) which would be ready to fly to Yellowknife if an edge case scenario arose.

Yeah. Sort of what I was getting at. Like if you trust that the U.S. won't default, then the most you need to put away is 45 million... if Ohtani is worried about edge case scenarios, then Toronto should have been the choice. Not really kidding about that. Would you rather be in LA or Toronto when WW3 or some other weird s*** hits?

If this is the case Ohtani for sure is an idiot. If US defaults on their debt then all hell breaks lose and when that happens for gods sakes, Toronto will be a much safer and nicer place to be than LA. And also Ohtani should demand the 68 million be put into a combination of gold, bitcoin, cash, treasuries, stocks, real estate, if he really is concerned about getting value back in 2034... well essentially he should let the LA Dodgers hedge fund manage it with a risk profile that reflects his world view.

They don't have to put 68 million away. I don't even know if they really have to put 45 million away (if they buy a 10 year U.S. treasury bond for 45 million they get 68 million in 2034). It's not about luxury cap evasion. It can't be true the Dodgers have to put 68 million away**. If they buy 10 year bonds they'll have 100 million in 2034. It might be true that Dodgers have to put 45 million away. If so then for some reason Ohtani wants the Dodgers to invest his money in safe U.S. treasuries instead of just getting the money now. Maybe for tax purposes. Or maybe Ohtani thinks the U.S. will default and demanded the Dodgers put the full 68 million in cash in a safe for him?

That makes zero sense. First they aren't putting 68 million away. They don't need to. Maybe they have to put 46 million into a 10 year treasury so the get 68 in 2034 to pay him. However why not just give him the 46 million and let him do what he wants with it... unless this is all so Ohtani can avoid California Taxes.

And that changes the narrative from "Toronto got outbid", to "Toronto couldn't sell Toronto to Ohtani" Fair enough. Would you rather go to a 100 win a year team with Freddie "best hitter in baseball" Freeman and the legendary Andrew Friedmann as head of baseball operations? Or a 90 win team with Vladimir "ground ball" Guerrero and Ross "beta" Atkins?

So the mega-stars who want a ring give basically a 5% interest loan to a hedge fund? If we assume Ohtani's value was 10 years 460 million that is what happened. If we assume Ohtani's value is more than that, than he is giving the Dodger's owners (the hedge fund) a below market interest rate on a loan.

Do we know the Dodgers did outbid us? It's a bit of mental gymnastics to wrap our heads around the true value of the contract, but I guess the best estimate is it's actually equivalent to 460 million over the next 10 years. I'd love to know what the Jays offer was in 'present value'.

It's a somewhat dangerous gamble. However probably not dangerous for the Dodgers. If the Dodgers go to hell the world has gone to hell. The thing I am wondering is say a rich but crazy moron buys the Kansas City Royals, and signs Blake Snell, Bellinger, and Hader to 10 year 400 million dollar contracts, 95% of money deferred 10 years. Then 10 years later the bills come due but the KC Royals can't pay them. I guess it won't happen because of common sense, but OK maybe there is a lesser version where they sign Bobby Witt Jr. to an extension with a lot of deferred money. I read up on the CBA and this is legal, but now that the Ohtani thing has lit a spark what are the chances some other team does some wizardry but gets themselves in real financial trouble in 10 years? Or then if you say... No. That will never happen. Only dual goliaths, where both the player is loaded already, and the team is loaded will do this s***. Then there is a moral hazard. Only the rich can do this, and poorer teams are at a further disadvantage.

This part is wrong. Technically this is legal in the CBA and apparently players want the option to defer money. So the league would have no choice but to allow any player to do this. No one ever thought of it much because no one thought a player would want to wait a decade or more for their money. Now that the can of worms has been opened you could see all kinds of crazy things happen. Or maybe not. Hopefully players (or atleast agents) are smart enough to know that if the next Jeffrey Loria offers you 1 billion in 10 years, that you might not want to trust what will happen 10 years from now. Though that brings us back to why it should be illegal. Players would only do this with a team they view as financially stable I guess. What would happen if say the Marlins offerred this contract and went bankrupt before the payments were due? Would the league have to take over and pay? So all other owners would be on the hook? hmmmm... Maybe this will be something that has to be eliminated afterall.

Given current long term interest rates I believe I heard the contract is only worth 450 million, we actually don't know for sure because we don't know what interest rates will be the next 10 years. It's quite likely the Jays outbid the Dodger for Ohtani in terms of present value, perhaps significantly depending on how much deferred money was in their offer. Beyond the repercussions of the salary cap there is no way this contract should be legal. Imagine if the San Diego Padres, did something like this a few years ago. Or the Florida Marlins, who couldn't afford to pay a huge contract did it, just to kick the can down the road. Then imagine the player gets injured or becomes un-tradable and at the same time a financial crisis hits, or teams get in trouble with the TV contract as is happening, or the owner passes away (like happened in San Diego) and who-ever inherited the team has to pay. We assume the Dodgers will be financially stable 10 years from now, and will pay the money. However no way you could ever risk something like this with a mid-to-low-market team. A team could literally go bankrupt over it. If the team has to pay out the contract year to year in the near term, we assume they won't do anything crazy they can't afford, but if they can kick the can down the road a decade teams could do all kinds of crazy things. Dodgers are only being allowed to do it because they are a top 3 financially stable franchise. Hell, you could look at it this way. The league is allowing the Dodgers to not only dodge some of the competitive balance task, but the Dodgers are getting an interest free loan from Ohtani to pay other players. Another important point is, how does the agent get paid? Is the agent getting paid as if the contract is worth 700 million in real terms? Is the agent getting paid in 10 years too? Not likely. Or are they getting like a 5% (35 million) fee right away? I think it is the latter. And this is insanely unfair to other players. Ohtani is probably rich enough that he can pay his agent now, or in the couple of years, but another player couldn't wait 10 years for his money. They have to pay the agent right now. So because Ohtani is essentially independently wealthy he is getting a competitive advantage over some dominican guy who needs to support his village and can't wait for the money.

Which people on the forum would you listen to?

Lee is a better hitter in Korea then Kim. If he translates the same as Kim he ends up being about a .290 .340 .400 hitter..

That's the bright spot. Bo and Vlad got 4.8 fWAR combined last year. Hell it's like we already lost them. I think the last 3 years Vlad/Bo went 11 - 8 - 5 in terms of WAR. And it made 0 significant difference in the win total (about 90 each year). Now it did hit the run differential a bit. Team is built around some 2-3 WAR homegrowns (Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Kirk, Jansen) and savy free agent signings. The current crop of prospects (Barger, Schneider, Orelivis, Roden, Howritz, etc.) may be able to play the 2-3 WAR role. So why exactly is this a 2 year window? Just develop some 3 WAR players and keep making 3-5 year free agent signings.

I wonder what the "Frank Thomas/Young Albert Pujols" version of Vlad would have been worth.