Olerud363

Good for you. There is every chance we will be wrong on one guy. Baseball players are hard to project. The philosophy (advanced statistics, WAR) some people use is a philosophy designed to be correct over a large series of decisions. If you use advanced analysis for every decision you will be right slightly more often then wrong and build a good team of 25 men. If you use your philosaphy (I just know cause I'm a super-scout and that guy has a noodle arm) you will be wrong more often. But everybody (even a monkey randomly choosing guys) will be right sometimes. So you can come back with your "long memory" and cherry pick your wins. Look at Ryan Goins. Some people were wrong on him... but they don't have such a long memory. They refuse to even believe Ryan Goins is bad. And still say "if only given a chance to play 160 games Ryan Goins will get more WAR and raise his -1 WAR to +2 WAR"

I don't see things as black and white as you do. If you had the choice between Ryan Goins "major league short stop" who has +1 WAR defense and -3 WAR offense and Hypothetical Joe Blow who has -1 WAR defense and 10 WAR offense. Who would you choose?? I am guessing you would choose your boy Goins because he is a "major league short stop". "Major league short stop" is a meaningless term. Every player needs to be evaluated as a whole and how they fit in with the team. I don't think he is a "major league short stop" because there is no such thing. Every player from EE to Derek Jeter to Ozzie Smith has a "value" as a short stop. Is EE a "major league" short stop?? I am guessing no. Is (was) Ozzie Smith a major league short stop?? I am guessing yes. Now is Derek Jeter a major league short stop?? Based on what I heard Toritani is probably as good a short stop as Derek Jeter. His bat and "reputation" may not be up to an everyday job at short stop.... but he is not coming here for that. He is here to play second and fill in at short when Reyes is injured. anyway here is a scouting report... "As was the case with Nakajima, a lack of data makes it hard to tell if the award was justified or not, but the scouts seem to agree that Toritani is a plus fielder. His already strong arm — believed by some to be the best among contemporary shortstops — is augmented by his speed, allowing him to cover a lot of ground and gun down runners. He does, however, have a tendency to make throwing errors. Like other shortstops coming over from Japan, doubts will always linger about the fielding aspects of the position, regardless of how good or bad the player has been. An NL scout doubts that Toritani will stay at short if he comes to MLB: "I think he's a good player; he's solid…If an MLB team does decide to take him, I don't know if he'll be used as a shortstop. Maybe second base, maybe elsewhere."

Your talking out of your ass. From what I can see from the stats Toritani is similar to Kawasaki... but he is Kawasaki +. That means he walks a bit more, and hits for a bit more gap power. He's had a season with 20 homers... while Kawasaki never cracked 4. And Kawasaki is almost good enough... Kawasaki can put up a .320 on base despite barely being able to get the ball out of the infield. Add a bit of pop to Kawasaki and you get an ok player. Kawasaki hits .230 .320 .300 (approximately) Toritani is a bit better Toritani can be projected for .250 .340 .350 (approximately) Ryan Goins can be projected for a .270 on base percentage. His defense (especially as a second basemen) can't make up for that. On base percentage is important. If you get guys with a .330 on base percentage they are huge improvements on Goins. Goins is a negative WAR player. Even Kawasaki is better then Goins.

What the hell is wrong with you?? How do you know if he's a major league short stop.

This is a weird post. Sometimes I hate advanced stats because to the non-math inclined they look like magic. But look at it this way. Kawasaki has been about a 1 win Player. Jed Lowrie is a 2 win player. Tortilla guy is better then Kawasaki. There is every chance he is comparable to Lowrie. Kawasaki is not a complete disaster... just not quite good enough. If Tortilla is like Kawasaki but a bit better we are actually getting somewhere with this move.

I'm not that concerned about relief pitching. We can find some on the cheap. By all means pick some up if the price is right. I was just pointing out that people are saying "get relief pitching or else we'll be like the tigers" But the tigers did everything they could in terms of "getting relief pitching". They "got" great relievers. Those great relievers just didn't perform. The giant have guys like Jean Machi. If your thinking who the hell is that I was too. Apparently just some 30something guy who they picked up from the Mexican League or something. And they have Jeremy Affeldt. Who looks Casey Jansen to me. Mediocre in 2013. Bounced back. So as long as Jansen is healthy start with keeping him... who cares if he had a down year. It happens.

Detroit acquired Nathan and Soria who looked awesome the moment before being acquired. IF AA got 2 relievers that looked as good as Nathan (circa Winter meetings 2013) and Soria (late July 2014) This board would say: AA the genius has acquired awesome relievers who are shutdown and the world series is now ours. Detroit did exactly what the "we need a shut down closer" folks are telling AA to do. Detroit got proven "shutdown" relievers. The proven shutdown relievers imploded after acquisition. But the people on this board don't see that. The people cannot think. Cannot read. Cannot digest information. The human race is doomed in my opinion because 57% don't participate in the thinking process... not that they are dumb. They just choose not to think.

He's a .320 minor league hitter... there are actually not a lot of those. He has a little gap power, a low strike out rate. He's a little old for his leagues. Put it all together and 2 WAR sounds about right. No clue about his defense. Nobody has any clue how good he could be... great case is more like 5 WAR.

The moment that Duane Ward looked the most kickass, the most invincible, the most proven was actually also the moment it was all over for him. When he looked the greatest he had like 3 games left to pitch ever...

I wasn't trying to troll the good posters (like Nox and JFAS). Sorry about that. I was just trying to point out to the "we need a shutdown closer" and "we need an ace" crowd that their arguments were flawed. The team with the best 2 aces (LA) didn't win. The team with the best bullpen (I'm assuming it was KC??) didn't win it all. The team that did win probably wasn't the best at anything or really the best at all just some combination of good and lucky. If the Jays somehow make the playoffs and then go on to win the world Series because Dickey goes 5-0 in the playoffs and EE hits 9 homers in the playoffs. It won't be because of anything other than the fact the Dickey and EE have had good 3 week runs before and could very well have a good 3 weeks in October. Or somebody else could.

OK. So why couldn't Kershaw and Grienke do it?? Statistically they are very similar too Johnson and Schilling. But in the end they couldn't get it done. If you believe in clutch you could say Kershaw and Grienke just are not clutch. I mean KC did not win until Grienke left. But I actually think Johnson's height had a lot to do with it. In the playoffs teams are really good and hard to stop. The playoff teams have seen good lefties before, so could counter Kershaw. But Johnson's height put another wrinkle into it that even a playoff team couldn't deal with. I really think the Smoral/Stroman combo is a good formula for the playoffs. It's been proven before.

Exactly my point. There is no proven formula (that I am aware of) that includes a midsized lefty slopballer. The proven formula I am talking about is the smaller righty combined with supertall lefty. Remember 2001?? There was no way to stop it. Even the Yankees, in the midst of there 2nd best dynasty (Jeter, Posado, Williams, Rivera, O'Niel, Martinez, Torre 1996-2001 years) could not do anything... Think about it, the greatest Yankees collection of our lifetimes could not deal with the righty/tall-lefty combo. Think of all the WAR of Jeter, Posado, Williams, Rivera, O'Niel, Martinez, Torre. All that statistical power couldn't stop a proven formula. So 2018 we will have that - tall lefty (Smoral) and stroman. We have talent and WARS now but no proven formula.

There are really multiple ways to win. Starters, Bullpen. There is also left handed power... old timers will remember Reggie Jackson hitting 3 homers in 1978. That kind of power can't be shut down. Of course some of us remember Joe Carter.. but that was more a Mitch Williams thing... So I don't think right handed power is the answer, which is a shame because we have that. What we don't have is the left handed Reggie Jackson kind of bat that can't be shut down in the playoffs. Boston does unfortunately in Papi. Another way to win is big tall left handers teamed up with a shorter right hander. Even the kids might remember Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2001. We have Stroman... and the prospects hounds probably know something about a tall lefty called Smoral. What I would of done is aim for 2017 or 18. We currently have a solid team but don't have a winning formula. The tall lefty and shorter righty would be interesting... just have to get them to the playoffs. After that it would be hard to counter the tall/short/left/right combo of Smoral and Stroman.

Just glancing at the box scores of this year's World Series I can't see that San Francisco's bullpen recorded a save at all in that series. And I remember the 1993 world series... Schilling was bad in game 1 and awesome in game 5. Aces always shut down good offenses... except when they don't... except when they do. If Schilling had "aced it" in game 1 it would of made as much a difference in that series as if Mitch Williams "closed" in game 6.

You also like Aces!!! So I would say you are qualified. Sorry about accusing you of being old skool... good luck in your quest to become president. If you can convince Rogers to open up the pay roll I would be happy for you to sign Lester and Sscherzer to 8-220 each... I don't care if Rogers loses money, so if the payroll was very high I'd be happy to get all the aces out there. It's only under the 135 million limit that I'd be concerned about wasting to much money on an ace.

Is he in serious trouble?? If you hire a body guard are you responsible for their actions in DR?? I take it it was just a shooting?? Nobody died??

Also... one may think that Beeston would bend his rules (no negotiating with Boras, 5 year contract limits) for a chance to win during his retirement tour. But for cronies winning isn't as important. The people are not important. It's about them and their ability to have mindless power over others. To rule over math, numbers, logic and ethics. If Lester was available for 6 130, and it was an actually great deal Beeston would not approve it. If Boras offerred Drew at 1-4 million Beeston would not approve it. It's not about winning. Well it is to some extent, but it's about doing it Beeston's way, then winning second.

It's a culture war. It's important for Beeston to get a "retirement" tour like Cito did. f*** the franchise. f*** the ordinary guy. f*** capitalism. Beeston is a pure cronyist. Mark my words... there is a culture war going on at Rogers and people are watching. Will Beeston get his retirement tour?? It's about more than just Beeston. It's about the cronyist party and their way of life. Cronyists from across North America and even Europe are watching this and fighting for their buddy Beeston. Cronies don't "get fired" they retire. If Beeston goes in the next few weeks it will be a big blow to the cronies. Like if Cito had been fired after "mutiny". Mark my words, the cronies are all in on this battle. Beeston will retire gracefully in 1 year, and maybe get to pick his successor.

It was like a deal with the devil. Devil - You can have 2 world series wins. Do you take it?? Fans - 2 world series wins?? Do I have to sell my soul?? Devil - No worse. The Gm that built it will leave soon after. The president and manager will underrate the young talent and overrate the rbi guy who pulled the winning homerun into the left field bullpen. You will have two world series wins but then nothing for a generation. And years from now the same president and manager will still be there talking about rbis and pulling the ball, even as the rest of baseball is using advanced analytics.

SanFrancisco won the world series with the 14th rated bullpen in the NL http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ERA isn't everything. When you adjust for park and defense San Francisco's bullpen isn't that good. There is no reason to change your style depending what the bullpen is like. If you have a 5-1 lead you pitch using the strategy that will lead to the least runs given up. No major league pitcher is going to give up runs because he knows a closer can rescue him. These guys are competitors and are concerned about both winning and stats (and contracts). The best stats lead to the most winning. Strategy 1 - pitch to contact - presumably this will lead to more hits. Strategy 2 - be careful - presumably this will lead to more walks. Why the hell is one better then the other?? Pitch to the strategy that give us the least runs.

That's the kind of stuff I come to this site for... It would be great to see more analysis and actual explanation of stats like WAR and less "we need a proven closer because proven closers win" "we need an proven ace because it is the only way to win in the playoffs"

Hi Key As I've mentioned to other posters the notion that one particular need is more important than another is silly. There are only runs scored, runs against, and wins. Whatever path leads to the best run differential which in turn leads to the most wins is the best path. There are an infinite number of ways to win none more important than another. If relievers are available for the right price then sure we should take them... but if they are to expensive then pass. We just saw a world series where Bumgarner piched the critical shut down innings, I remember in 2002 Schilling and Randy Johnson pitched important relief innings. The playoffs are weird. If Stroman explodes on the league he could end starting playoff games and relieving critical innings. Jimmy key won the Jays 1992 world series clincher in relief. WAR has a long history and is calibrated to accurately take into account "leverage" and assign the right value to relievers. If you think WAR overrates or underrates a player you need to write to the people who maintain the formulas. My suggestion is to start a post... explain why you think WAR underrates relievers, suggest modications to the formula and ask for some feedback.

These are hard conversations - son - "Daddy where do aces come from??" father - "Son... it's complicated." son - "I think I know how it works. They have a mommy and a daddy and they love each other and have a baby, and the baby grows and does little league, and high school, and sometimes college, and rookie league, and the arizona fall league, and the eastern league, and triple a, and then they come to the majors, sometimes they struggle, but they keep trying and they have talent and after years and years of development with a little luck and talent they become an ace!" father - "who told you that?? Liberal hogwash. Don't listen to that crap. Aces are... just aces. They are just so. They have no beginning or end. An Ace is an Ace. You'll know it only when you see it, and then you have grab the ace. Even it it's 143 million dollars."

If you are not "old skool" then I sincerely apologize... really I do. You sound a lot like him. But he was ussually pretty honest about who he was. So maybe you really aren't him.

2011 cardinals were 8th in pitching. Carpenter unfortunately had lost his certification as an "ace" by that time. Unless you want to argue that the "ace" certification is indefinate... then Dickey is an ace, if Carpenter didn't lose his certification, Dickey shouldn't either. And in fact Buerhle has more "ace" credentials then Carpenter. Buerle has much higher lifetime WAR, similar peak value (6 WAR). Buerhle is also "clutch" having won the World Series championship. If Carpenter is an "ace" Buerhle is. In fact Buerle's career and peek arent't that far from Lester.