Olerud363

This is a good point that I haven't heard anywhere else. AAs goal may have been to re-establish a top 5 pay roll. Without a top-5 payroll he couldnt keep the team together the way he wanted. In his mind the revenue was there for a top 5 payroll and he felt he had earned it.

Trout's base running has fallen off a cliff from age 20-23. He was 49-5 in sb/cs in 2012. 11-7 last year. His defense has fallen too. According to fangraphs in 2012 his defense and baserunning added up to +27, last year it was +5ish

I thought the purpose of the Hank Aaron award is best offensive player. Forget defense, baserunning, leadership and what the team won. Seems obvious Trout was better with the bat.

You've given no links. Your claim is basically that it doesn't matter if a guy plays left or center. So if you have Kevin Keirmaier and Nelson Cruz, both guys are 5 WAR guys, does it matter which one plays left and which one plays center?? Will it be 10 WAR either way??

It seems like the theoretical variance should increase as you go to harder positions variance of DH - 0 (no argument, not even Grant please) variance of 1b ?? (potential) variance of lf ?? (potential) variance of ss ?? (potential) variance of cf ?? I use the term potential because the low end guys are going to be eliminated before they reach the low end. If Colabello was in center maybe he could put a -80 runs behind Kiermaier. If you put them both in left the difference might only be 60. If you put them at DH it's obviously 0.

Does the variance change?? Intuitively it seems it should. Great Center Fielder +30 runs, Horrible Center fielder -30 You move the two players to left -- they are still an average of zero but.. Great Center Fielder (playing left) +20 runs, Horrible Center fielder (playing left) -20 Great Center Fielder WAR goes down, cuz he doesn;t have as much opportunity to make hard plays. Horrible Center Fielder WAR goes up, cuz he doesn't have as much opportunity to screw up hard plays.

"Theoretically, someone switching from CF to LF doesn't actually lose any value because they should be more skilled at their new position, relative to average. Revere is now compared to plugs like Hanley Ramirez and Kyle Schwarber in UZR calculations." He made a pretty general statement. I am asking if the statement holds no matter how good or bad you are?? I guess you're claiming it does, as you won't go into any more detail. OK. So you guys think that a +10 centerfielder will be a +10 left fielder. A +30 center fielder will be a +30 left fielder. A -30 center fielder will be a -30 left fielder?? Would Kevin Kiermaier still be +30 as a left fielder?? I assume you WOULD NOT put Kyle Schwarber in center. There would be more hard plays, if he's -20 as a left fielder, he'd be -35 or something in center because there are more hard plays that he couldn't make. Or is that incorrect?? Does it work the other way?? If Kevin Kiermaier is put in left is he less valuable because there are less hard plays?? I guess I have my answer. You guys think it doesn't matter if a guy plays left or center. Same value. However you aren't explaining it, you're just claiming it. It has not been "explained" many times. It has been "claimed" many times. Big difference. Yo Bro 2 WAR center fielder = 2 WAR left fielder!

As you go down the defensive spectrum there aren't as many hard plays. A good defensive player won't have as many opportunities to contribute, a bad one won't have as many to do damage. I believe the former conversation was about Dexter Fowler. The argument was that he may be better as a left fielder because he won't do as much damage. A positive defensive player won't contribute as much at an easier position. A negative defensive player won't do as much damage at an easier position. Ben Revere's best season was 2012 according to fangraphs -- he contributed 10 runs as a center fielder. I don't think he could do that as a left fielder. IF a guy is +10 as a centerfielder are they still +10 as a left fielder?? Or is it more like they are neutral as a feft fielder?? The way I see it is a great centerfielder, +25, would still contribute in left but it would be more like +15. A horrible center fielder, -20 or something, wouldn't do as much damage in left.

So why not just patiently explain it again?? Put a link to an article. Cut and paste the previous explanation... People who are "confidently" right, patiently and politely explain things. People who aren't confident give one sentence snappy answers. Why does fangraphs use a -7.5 run adjustment for left. Do you think they are wrong on this??

Donaldson, Bautista, Tulo, EE, Martin, Pillar and Travis are projected for about 25 WAR next year. That seems pretty good to me. With the risk distributed among 7 players. Add in Stroman and they are almost at 30... Add in a few more pieces and you could have a team with 40+ projected WAR. How does translate in terms of projected wins??

As far as I can see fangraphs adjusts left field by -7.5 runs. If this is wrong then write them. Have them change it. Then have them post on our board. Fangraphs - "Just a quick note to you guys. One of your members Grant77 pointed out that our adjustment for left field is wrong. We fixed it in our formulas. Ben Revere is now projected for 2 WAR next year thanks to Grant77 and his insight. Cheers to Grant! - yours truly Fangraphs"

It trended down in '97 and '98 as well. So there used to be no gap, then it changed, then it changed again. Long term centerfield has ranged from 94-101, left field 99-110. Seems like an ordinary random variable. Beyond that, teams aren't perfectly efficient. Fangraphs doesn't use offense alone for positional adjustment. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/positional-adjustment/

Are you saying Revere can contribute just as much as a left fielder?? It's acceptable to be a jerk but explain to us commoners why players can contribute just as much in left field as center?? Does it hold for other positions?? Can Ryan Goins contribute just as much as a first basemen?? If Ben Revere doesn't get penalized for playing left, would Ryan Goins get a penalty for playing first?? He'd be way better then all the other statues at first, wouldn't he??

Player a) is in centerfield. Moves to left field. Are they just as valuable there?? If so why do teams (usually) move all their best defensive outfielder to center?? Why does fangraphs have a defensive penalty for left fielders, if the player can contribute just as much in left field?? Does the same hold for every position?? If you move Ryan Goins to first base is he just as valuable there as middle infield because he is way better then all the other first basemen??

Thanks for the insight. You're being a total jerk. I'll take this to the advanced stats thread. You are implying there's no defensive penalty for playing left field. It seems ridiculous. However if it's true explain it nicely and in detail. Complete *******.

That wasn't really my point. arrgghhh... You seemed to be claiming there's no defensive adjustment for left field. But there is... If you don't adjust defense then you'd have to adjust offense. Or are you saying Revere can contribute just as much as a left fielder? Even if he was a great defensive player I don't think that's true. You think the good defensive left fielders wouldn't contribute more as centerfielders?? Anyway fan graphs doesn't think Ben Revere contributes much on defense. The projection system see's his baserunning declining and his hitting regressing to his career average. I just don't see him as being valued as a trade commodity. I'd be happy to be wrong and see the Jays get something for him.

What age does defense peak at?? His defensive numbers are plumetting. Looks like they started going down, then they switched him to left.

Well OK. But then he's also being compared to Kyle Schwarber as a hitter.

The all caps anger directed at Grant, not you. I agree with you. But in this case the projection is amazing, it's wonderful, it's perfect for Ben Revere the left fielder If Grant wants to argue that he's nuts. Revere IS IN LEFT NOW. Left field. Not center. Does anyone really want a .290 .320 .350 left fielder?? Other then Grant?

In this case the projection is fine, it projects him to hit .291 .326 on base, .364 slugging. His career averages basically. No ones going to come up with a better projection. He didn't stick in center so I he's docked for being a left fielder -- that is the issue BEN REVERE GOT 2 WAR some YEARS AS A CENTER FIELDER BEN REVERE GOT 2 WAR LAST YEAR BECAUSE HE HIT ABOVE HIS CAREER AVERAGES. Ben Revere is not a good left fielder. 1 WAR. He is not a 2 WAR player in left field.

What similar players are you talking about?? The projector is a machine. If the player is really similar they will have a similar projection. The machine doesn't have feelings.

Not really, talent is a pyramid. Even if he's worth 2, that's not a hot commodity... nice guy to have if you don't have a better guy, He's only projected for 0.9 by fan graphs. And just cuz our former GM gave up prospects for him doesn't mean another GM would, apparently our former GM needed adult supervision. The Revere trade didn't do much... maybe added a fraction of a win, if that over Pompey.

In retrospect it was a rip off because Donaldson put up 8.8 WAR and Lawrie like 1 -- their projections were more like 5-2 Then there were 3 other very young players headed to Oakland... one of them Franklin Barretto is only 19, tore up a-ball, and might be playing 2nd base as a 21 year old in Oakland in 2017 The Padres would want young, highly controllable talent for Ross, I presume something like Alford and Osuna -- or Pompey and Sanchez.

K.C. just basically did it. Hosmer 23, Mouse 24, Perez 23, Escobar 26, Gordon 29, Cain 27 in 2013 -- that was the start of their run. They weren't all under 25. But they had a three year run with these 6 in their youngish primes-- that's pretty good.

?? Is this true. Why is it mentioned so much?? It makes me think the following happened Trouba - "I don't have a girlfirend, I'm going to fail the math test, Girls don't like me, *******s are beating the crap out of me everyday, and the girls like the *******s, and the Blue Jays are going to lose, and I'm going to fail the math test, and girls hate me, and..." Pretty young math teacher - "Don't worry trouba, you're a sensitive soul, and it will all be OK, you'll pass the test, the Blue Jays will win the world series, a girl will kiss you soon enough, it will all come true, you can trust me, why if I was 10 years younger I'd love to have a boyfriend like you, I hate *******s" L54 comes along, beats the crap out of trouba -- "by the way trouba, I f***ed that math teacher, she's full of s***, start lookin towards the fat girls, cuz pretty girls like your math teacher are out of your league!"