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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    What about Wade Boggs... by all accounts Boggs was not much of an athlete... a lead-off man with 2 steals a year. What Boggs did well was take pitches and hit to the opposite field. When Ryan Goins comes up, god know what he is thinking. Brook Jacobey needs to go. I'd like to see guys like Goins and Pillar take a lot of pitches and make contact, liners. If they each added 40 walks and 40 singles they would make a lot of money. Instead it seems they want to hit 15 homers a year, instead of helping the team.
  2. Olerud363
    I think the issue is that Bautista, Pillar, Donaldson, and Tulo are beat up... once fans see those guys all back in it will give us confidence... tough loss... there were a couple tougher last year... a Friday game against the Yanks in which they led 3-0 in the 8th, Price on the mound, lost 4-3... One against Boston mid September... 2 run lead blown against Boston, 2 day before playing the Yanks the final time... came back from both.
  3. Olerud363
    Is Wilner Grant77?? That would be hilarious... I am guessing Grant is real given he has been here since 10 years or more... Moogy=Stoeten?? That one I'm still suspicous of... just the fact he able to write off excessively long, annoying posts, with perfect grammar and spelling, made me suspicous he was a writer.
  4. Olerud363
    Joe -- is there a board that reaches a happy medium?? This board has excessive government and to much regulation -- there are not enough threads because the government only allows a limited number of threads.. so it is a bit like North Korea media... where you only get a couple of TV Channels The other board did not have effective regulation -- so there were way too many threads and in particular too many dog threads In a perfect world there would be a perfect board that reflected a perfect political system... but alas there is no perfection in our world Perhaps you could visit Orioles hangout... that might be a nice play. I do not know as I do not have a membership to that website.
  5. Olerud363
    That will be in the data then If something is real it is in the data... Nox and NJH will say "Of course standard deviation of strikeouts is important. It has actually been shown k-rate in top 5 games is much more predictive, than just k-rate" Reality - it is what really happens Thoughts - those are things that goes on in peoples heads. They may not reflect reality. Data is not a magic thing for nerds... it is a record of what happened and what happened after that. If 11 strikeouts happened that is great. But what happened next shows if the 11 strikeouts mean anything. Grant - I think the fact he struck out 11 is very important That is fine, but what is reality?? Reality is what really happens. If your top 5 games are just as important as all your games, or have some importance the smart people should know that and the data should show that.
  6. Olerud363
    They were both solid major league players... but not consistent stars. Their performance (minors and majors) is just perfectly normal variation around the true mean. When players have a high variation we come up with a nice story... but it may not be anything. Grant is claiming 1 game variations are important. I am claiming even 1 season variations may not be important.
  7. Olerud363
    Yes it is relevant. Why wouldn't it be relevant?? I am just pointing out the standard deviation is a thing. If Standard Deviation of any statistic is important, we should see that over many different statistics.
  8. Olerud363
    Vernon Wells and Alex Rios each had an amazing minor league season (1999 for Wells, 2003 for Rios) that made us all think they were the next Mike Trout... or the first Mike Trout I guess since Mike Trout did not exist then. Each of the seasons were not that meaningful, beyond the effect they had on the entire average. Wells and Rios both had another mediocre minor league season. In the majors their careers were the same combination of good seasons and bad. It is the averages that count, the more data the better, For any player I can a good game, week, month, and year.
  9. Olerud363
    Why would that matter?? Is there any indication that standard deviation of strikeouts is important?? Is there any evidence that standard deviation of any stat is even a thing?? What I mean is?? Guy 1 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - a couple 11 strikeout games Guy 2 120 innings - 80 strikeouts - no 11 strikeout games What does this mean?? Anything?? So to end up with the same strikeout rate as Guy 2, Guy 1 must of had some 2 strikeout games, or a lot of 4 strikeout games. UUUUHHHSSS This is nuts. I don't think having 11 strikeout games mean anything beyond the strikeout rate. I doubt the standard deviation of strikeouts is even meaningful, or that different among guys with the same strikeout rate.
  10. Olerud363
    I have studied the issue in great detail and I now demand Ryan Goins be called up for August. Ryan Goins is a career .287 .370 .372 hitter in the month of August. It just goes to show you the differences between August and June (Goins is only a .186 hitter in June). This makes a lot of sense to me. 1. The pitchers are getting a bit tired in the dog days so Ryan can hit them. 2. The hitting coaches give Ryan a lot of advice.. like "hit to the opposite field" but it takes a while to bring this advice to the games, by August he is able to apply all the advice he is given to games. This is not random. August is obviously very different for Ryan then June. Call Ryan up now as he obviously a good August hitter (and he is even showing it in Buffalo).
  11. Olerud363
    I am convinced that Randy Ruiz would obey the law of transation between Buffalo and Toronto.. I believe his big numbers were in Vegas?? No?? So Randy Ruiz buffalo (10000 at bats) - .300 .350 .500 Ruandy Ruiz toronto (10000 at bats) - .270 .330 .450
  12. Olerud363
    ?? Whut?? It is only 50 at bats. Goins is a .270 .330 .360ish guy career at aaa. .220 .260 .300 mlb I think he is a better hitter then his major line shows so far. There is a translation factor between Buffalo and Toronto... it is known. Given 10000 at bats in Buffalo and Toronto every player will obey the translation factor. I am convinced of this. If Ryan is a true .270 .330 .360 hitter in Buffalo, he will hit .245 .310 .330 (or something like that) in 10000 at bats in Toronto You are being fooled by small sample size.
  13. Olerud363
    I don't think there is anyway to predict this. It is very common for players to get called up directly from aa, or go to triple a for a month and get called up. It is also common for players to get stuck in aa for a couple years... If they perform they could get called up any time in 2017... depending on major league needs.
  14. Olerud363
    Piggy back with Liriano?? I wonder how effective Liriano would be going 3 innings every 5th day, and loogie as needed 1-2 of the other days.
  15. Olerud363
    RIchardJJ was the dogg?? OK. Maybe Todd is dogg too. RichardJJ was very similar. Very earnest in discussing Garret Jones trade rumours.
  16. Olerud363
    Not sure. I thought a mod confirmed he was not the dogg. Todd reminds me a bit of RichardJJ... a guy who always wanted to talk trades for Garret Jones. That was on the old board. He could be for real... if so I am guessing someone who perhaps immigrated to North America and is just really into North American sports. A little bit gets lost in translation as english is not his first language. Or maybe it is a troll... don't know honestly.
  17. Olerud363
    Just so you know, I am not insulting you, or implying you have autism. I was just responding to the other guy and explaining that you made a 104 best prospects list. That is why there has been so much conversation with you, you created a long list and there was a lot of discussion. You also did the game thread at least once, and that day it was a very complicated game that ended in victory (6-5 Toronto over Baltimore). This also led to a lot discussion.
  18. Olerud363
    1. Spelling mistakes (easy) 2. Autism, not sure... seems to be more of a EAASL (English as a second languate). 3. Humour -- he seems straight serious... others are providing the humour. You missed one important point. For better or worse he did compile a top 104 prospects list If you want to compete with Todd the first three are not enough. You need a top 104 list.
  19. Olerud363
    I mean every once in a while I google "Richard Urena - Scouting Reprot", I'm not privy to any news letters or anything that might have more in depth information.
  20. Olerud363
    I didn't hear this. I don't follow the reports though. Googling indicates his arm is solid and he is expected to stay at short.
  21. Olerud363
    His stats and progression is very similar to Robinson Cano Age and levels are almost exactly the same Stats are close. Cano was a bit better as a 19 year old.. but Urena having a better season as a 20 year old. Of course Cano has hit much better as a major leager. Didi Gregorious is also "sort of" comparable... Stat scouts who else is comparable?? MLBTV scouts what do you think??
  22. Olerud363
    My model showed that being of Mormon religion is definately correlated with Health and future Cy youngs.
  23. Olerud363
    The funny thing is Harold had a couple of nice quiet 4 fWAR (5 rWAR) seasons... drew 80 walks once... Joe Morgan, had averaged 10 WAR (almost) for 5 years and had 120 walks a year... Yet they hate "moneyball" -- Kevin Pillar comes up to the plate -- Joe - I like his aggressiveness Harold - In this day and age it's refreshing.
  24. Olerud363
    We have that in common, my order is. Johnson, Sanders, Trump, Clinton, Stein.
  25. Olerud363
    I live in the States. I have a satellite radio in the car which is basically only used to listen to Jays games, I also have mlb subscription and listen to Jays games on the iphone while running. I probably listen to at least a portion of half the games on the radio. I also listen to Hannity and Michael Berry quite a bit... I don't catch Rush much, because I am not driving at that time. Almost never catch Glenn Beck.. I might this morning though because I have an errand. My favourite all time (after Jerry Howarth) is Michael Savage. Absolute master of the format. Love the apolyctic edge ... ".. to the right of Limbaugh and the left of God..."
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