Olerud363

Didn't he drive a couple down the left field line for doubles, then hit 2 opp-o shots down the right field line (one for a double off the wall, one first hr) in a 4 hit game against the Yankees? Too lazy to look it up, but that's how I remember it. Pretty low sample, yes... but some guys go years without hitting an opp-o shot...

Guillermo Quiroz signed for 1 million -- He was one of these guys that went the 1 level a year time table because it took him a while to get over .200 Quiroz started hitting at Dunedin and had a good year in 2003 I think But he never did anything in the majors. 1 million was a lot in the late 90s.

Nets played on YES.

They have a ton of fringe guys, even with the cuts to the minor leagues. Just bring some of them along. Don't have them expecting to pitch or not pitch that day, but they just take over if another guy reaches a limit or gets in trouble... kind of like the regular season. Romana comes in, takes 10 pitches to walk the first guy, and you might start another guy warming just in case. I mean they did it for years that way. This new thing is like 5 days old.

They can take him out after 25 pitches and have him rest for 20 minutes and then throw another 10 on the side... Yeah, I guess this relies on having a bunch of fringe minor leaguers and journey men there who can fill in the other innings, and with the contracted minor leagues there are less of those... but that is another change for the worse.

Kirk went from short season in 2018 to MLB in 2020... he only had 91 games at full season. None above a+. Out of the pool of guys who reached Martinez's stage, that is 17 years old already in short season what is the average age of their MLB debut? What is average time from short season to MLB for top 100 prospects? I have to think the expectation given past numbers is that Orelvis debuts in 2022. Of course it is rare for 20 year olds to debut in MLB. I think the last two the Jays had were Guerrero and Snider. Who are the last two 17 year olds they had doing well in short season in U.S.? (plenty of guys do well at 17 in DSL, but that's not as advanced).

Vlad is an anomaly but Bichette is completely different. We are talking about a guy who hit .400 in aa at 19, vs a guy who hit .280 in aa at 20. And weirdly it's the latter guy who is more successful so far, which shows it is hard to predict anything. Reality is guys get called up at weird times and kind of force the issue themselves. I don't know what will happen with these guys, but the chances that one of them forces the issue and is up way before we expected (like Kirk) are just as high as the chance they proceed at a routine boring pace, and just as high as the chance that they get stuck and are a disappointment.

Point is these guys will decide the timeline with their performance, the missing minor league season won't have much of an impact... if one of them pulls a Juan Soto they might be here in May (if an injury)... if one hits .240 for a few years it might take until 2026.

Orelvis Martinez Progression 2021 -- Vancouver -- .320 20 80 2022 -- Dunnedin -- .344 44 120 2023 -- New Hampshire .405 39 110 2024 -- Buffalo .365 31 102 Called up September 2024 -- Sportsnet -- after years of legendary minor league seasons, Blue Jays call up Orelvis Martinez. Martinez unfortunately was a victim of the missing 2020 minor league season. It ended up costing him 3 years of his career. As Mark Shapiro explains, without the data from 2020, the Blue Jays had no choice but to slowly move Martiniez one level a year. Even as inferior prospects moved up quickly.

The missing season isn't going to delay an uber-prospect. Uber-prospects are often ready at 20, if Orelvis is really that good he could be on the radar later this year. Note: I am not saying he is that good, just that if he is, he won't be delayed. 2020 is a thing... it happened, just because we don't know what happened, doesn't mean there will be delays... Maybe Orelvis hit ".330" at the alternative site last year... maybe he hit .220... we don't know. That is different than it not happening, there was training at the alternative site, and judging by how ready Kirk looked the experience at the alternative site did something....

I guess you are having some fun, nothing wrong with that, but it is kind of funny because this hypothetical adjustment, that changes him from a .250 hitter with 25 homers, to a .285 hitter with 10 homers would be completely useless... lol.

Anybody who commutes, road trips, travels, runs, hikes, sits around a campfire drinking beer, does their chores.... even coding. I know coders, I code. If you code it is nice to listen to the radio broadcast and not have the visual distraction. Same could be said about 1 million other tasks. Writing. Writing angry diatribes with horrible grammar on BJMB, if you are watching the game you may make even more grammar mistakes, and the posts may be angrier. Vacuuming. Some ladies vacuum for the household, and can't always see the TV when vacuuming so want to listen. Same with washing dishes, or laundry or other lady chores. Roofing. Other types of men's work. Splitting wood. Stuck in traffic after a hard day at the trading desk down town, trading commodities, fighting the Robin-hooders. Lots of reasons for real men to need the radio too. Plan a long road trip across the U.S. or across Canada (can't do both because of the border restrictions due to the COVID-19) and you go from Manitoba to Saskatchewan (or Minnesota to South Dakota if stuck on other side), and excited to get to the Rockies... but time the drives to listen to the games... sometimes you drive from 11:00 to 6:00 and have a day game on the drive, sometimes between 5:00 and 11:00, to listen to the night game. Everybody is like why the f*** are we not leaving until late afternoon, you make up an excuse, because you are too embarrassed to admit you are timing the drive for the game. Terrible decision that effects everyone. Now instead of Blue Jays baseball they will listen to Limbaugh's (RIP) replacement coming in from right wing Buffalo radio, or CBC radio... either will polarize the society more.

He looks fine now. He's a big guy. Kevin Mitchell was a big guy. Miguel Cabrera is a big guy. We want him to be a big guy. Hypothetically per 162 Morbidly Obese Vlad - .260 24 88 ground ball rate = 62 because hard to get swing right while morbidly obese Stocky lighting cat Vlad - .320 37 118 ground ball rate = 47, swing mechanics much better Way too skinning Vlad - .290 19 80 ground ball rate = 47, swing OK, but now not as much strength behind it Optimization is the key.

He looks like he did when he hit a walk off laser in Montreal then .400 in New Hampshire. 238 pound lighting cat Vlad. Much improved on the 270+ tub of goo that showed up last year.

Wow. Late winter thought. Even if Vlad struggles again (I don't think he will, I heard a rumor he is now back to being a 230 pound lighting cat and will hit the ball like he did as a 19 year old in Montreal and New Hampshire)... well even if he did it still wouldn't be a good idea to send him to Indy Ball or worse another team. I thought about this because I saw a random tweet about Gary Shefield by a Brewers fan still pissed, 30 years later, that they traded him. 1988 - Gary really bad 1989 - Gary at 20 worse than Vlad at 20 1990 - Gary OK in a Vlad is OK kind of way, but not amazing 1991 - Gary really bad (.194 Gary biggest failure ever) Announcement - Gary traded to the Padres 1992 Gary hits like dream Vlad would hit (.330 30+ homeruns run at the triple crown) After lots of failure Gary very good, and remains that way for 16 years or so

On first glance they are pretty close in raw minor league numbers. Closer then I thought they would be. At second glance Palacios is a year older at each level, strikes out 3 times as much + probably for every 20 guys that hit like Brantley in the minors only 1 becomes Brantley.

New ball numbers Degrom 18-11 1.34 McNeil .320 2 56 5 WAR Bichette .301 19 80 Vlad .288 21 82 (not bad with new ball) Biggio .232 9 50 101 walks still (still not bad, Kieth Law 'can't hit fastball') Judge .250 35 110 (home run crown) Pujols .190 2 34 Trout .282 33 90 10 WAR (yeah those numbers really good with new dead ball) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tanner Roark 14-8 3.44 210 innings 19 homers, 188 ks That is just an average pitcher though with new ball

I would give up a playoff year for a theoretical 85 win team, in exchange for a) a better chance for the 90 win team to make noise and only have to win 1 wild card game. the theoretical 97 win team of someday down the road not having to play a 3 game series or some crap against Tampa Bay.

Agree. Especially the extra inning gimmicks. There is nothing more character building then when your favorite team loses a 19 inning game on the west coast. A couple of my favorite memories the last few years. 2014 - some crazy game that was 5-2 Detroit I think in the 9th. Jays tie it somehow goes to the 18th or 19th. I love the 14th inning stretch. A couple of crazy replays. Day game but ends as it is getting dark (in August) 2016 -crazy Canada day game. Gibby and EE kicked out early? Or something like that. I think "tomorrows" starter goes 7 innings for Cleveland. Goins and Barney I think go for the Jays. lol. Jays lose but win the next two. I hope it is just for 1 more year until the COVID situaiton is more clear.

Interesting question. After checking out bbref a) 2008 team had a 93 win run differential. 2006 team had 86 win run differential but were missing 100 runs The 2006 team had a .280 .350 .460 rate stats that should of led to almost 900 runs, their rate stats were better than the 93, 99, 03 or 2015 teams, but all those teams scored 80-90 runs more. What happened?? I guess either terrible base running, or terrible hitting with runners on (probably luck). So I think the 2006 was better. Wells (best season), Glauss prime season, Overbay best season, Rios was on fire (until staph infection), Hinske was repeating rookie year, Reed Johnson was hitting good, Aaron Hill as well, Frank Cat was fun, Molina/Zaun was a great catching combo Should of been a 900 run team according to rate stats but fluked to 800 somehow.

There are so many creative things they could start doing. I remember Pearson was on a 5-2-5-2 innings schedule a couple of years ago. Would be interesting to see them do that with Merryweather and see where it goes.

It freaks me out. Keith now just brings it up randomly when asked about different players. Like if he gets asked a question on the Siemen signing. Barry from Barry - Keith what do you think of the Siemen signing Keith - Jays off season has been really good. Springer and Siemen and 6-8 wins. Our projections have them at 89 now just out of the playoffs. The problem is Biggio can't hit the fastball, that will cost them this year. Hopefully they recognize what is going on with Biggio after 2 weeks and get him out of there before he costs them too many wins.

Keith, Keith, Keith Maybe Keith is just trolling, I have to think Keith is starting to get in people's heads. Why else would anyone ever want to trade a 30-2 basestealer with 120 walks? Keith is screwing with us, sowing doubt... His crazy confidence messes with me too. I do worry about Biggio as Keith is so ultra crazy confident with the can't hit the fastball thing.

It can't be long until someone figures out how to make the 'vulture' role a big one. Maybe even a role the best pitcher on the team. Vulture 40-50 games all critical 3-4 innings a game sometimes he comes, in the second, after the opener, his team leading 2-0 already sometimes he starts sometimes he comes in in the 9th when it's tied The key is this. The manager feeds the vulture "win" opportunities, like he would feed a closer "save" opportunities. Vulture can win 20 with 150 innings. I guess the vulture can't go in back to back days... but he pitches, 2 days off, then may or not pitch the next 2 days depending if a vulture opportunity comes up, then pitches no what after 3 or 4 days rest.

I think the 330 strike-outs is high for a guy who has only pitched 200 innings once, going to 280... I see him being perhaps like Roy Halladay 2003ish if he really want 280 innings, presumably would have to hold back a bit for that a) team lets him go every 4th game 6-7 innings most days, sort of a Roy Halladay 2003 with more starts but less complete games 25-14 40 starts 280 innings - 3.32 ERA 200 ks. team lets him go every 4th but don't tell him about their application of hyper optimization of matchup and pitch count will limit hitm to 4-5 innings each of the 40 starts, in this case no holding back. Balls to the wall for 12, 14, or 16 outs each time 15-2 40 starts 190 innings 250 ks, 1.57 era