jaysblue

Yeah if the Jays aren't within a game or 0.5 game of WC3, no need to start him at all. Need to protect your $200M + investment.

Roy Halladay never complained about a dead shoulder and the dude threw a complete game almost every 4-5 starts. Geez do I miss those days. Cease still had really good outings even after that CG against Boston, especially in August. Mostly caught up to him in September since he's been meh.

I’m not saying it’s suspect that a lot of people bet on the Dodgers. What I find suspect is their record covering the -1.5 run line, where they’re just 62-86 against the spread in those games. Sportsbooks definitely benefit and cash in when the Dodgers fail to cover, especially if more money is coming in on them to cover the -1.5 than on the other side.

I saw something the other day regarding the Dodgers that caught my attention. The Dodgers are probably one of the most heavily bet teams in baseball, if not worldwide. And because their moneyline often doesn’t offer much value, a lot of bettors tend to play them on the -1.5 run line instead. That makes their 2026 run-line record pretty striking. Through September 18th, Los Angeles had been the betting favourite in 148 games and had gone just 62-86 against the spread in those games. In other words, they failed to cover the favourite run line 86 times. After another cover, that put them at 63 covers and 86 failures in 149 games. That works out to a cover rate of just 42.3%, meaning they failed to cover 57.7% of the time. Am I a little skeptical when I see a number like that, especially considering how heavily the Dodgers are bet and how much better they are on paper than most teams? Sure.

I don’t think Clase intentionally blew the ALCS, unless something came out during the investigation that specifically suggested otherwise. That said, I do question the integrity of North American sports more than I used to. At the end of the day, professional sports are both competition and a massive entertainment business. Would MLB have preferred a Yankees-Dodgers World Series over Guardians-Dodgers in 2024 from a ratings and revenue standpoint? I think the answer is pretty obvious. Likewise, leagues, broadcasters and advertisers generally benefit far more based on a certain matchup or from a playoff series going six or seven games than ending in four or five. I agree that the idea of everything being scripted down to the exact outcome is highly unlikely. But could there occasionally be outside influences around games, whether through officiating, umpiring, individual participants, or the enormous betting ecosystem surrounding professional sports? I don’t think it’s unreasonable to at least question that possibility. That’s different from saying games are routinely fixed. I just have a lot less confidence than I used to that everything surrounding these leagues is completely insulated from financial and entertainment interests.

I think it probably happens more often than what actually becomes public. The cases we hear about whether it’s Clase in MLB or some of the incidents involving NBA players are just the ones that get investigated and exposed. I’d be surprised if every case of attempted manipulation has already been caught. I also think the level of temptation probably depends a lot on the player and their situation. Is a star making $25–30 million per year going to risk his entire career and reputation to manipulate a prop or game? Probably less likely. But could a fringe bullpen arm making close to the league minimum, or a player in his late 20s or early 30s trying to hang onto a career, potentially be more vulnerable to that kind of temptation? I think that’s a much more realistic concern. That’s also why restrictions on certain types of betting make some sense in lower-paying leagues. Take the CFL, for example. If player props are more restricted during the regular season, there’s at least an argument that it reduces some of the opportunities for manipulation. When players are making significantly less money than stars in MLB, the NBA or NFL, the risk-reward equation can look very different. That doesn’t mean players in lower-paying leagues are fixing games or props, but from an integrity standpoint, it makes sense to be more cautious about how many individual player markets are offered.

Same here.

He's better as a super utility guy moving forward who gets around 400 AB's per season. Even defensively, he doesn't look as sharp and has been awful in comparison to last season.

Soriano could also be used as trade bait perhaps for another bat or something if the Jays decided to go out and sign one of the top free agents arms available.

I think Miles gets an opportunity to start in the rotation next season. Cease Soriano Yesavage Miles Ponce In a perfect world, I’d still love to add another elite arm to pair with Cease at the top of the rotation. I’m not quite ready to trust Soriano or Yesavage as a true No. 1A/No. 2 option in a postseason rotation yet. It would also raise the floor of the staff over a full regular season and give them more protection against injuries. Adding another top-end starter would push Miles and Ponce down the depth chart a bit, where one of them could be used in a multi-inning role or step into the rotation whenever an opening comes up. I’d also keep Spaghetti as AAA depth, assuming he still has options remaining.

Shapiro should run for mayor of the City of Toronto. He would have my vote!

I think it's good to let Yesavage get 1-2 more starts and finish the season off on a positive note. Definitely could help play a role into his offseason preparation and mindset as he heads into 2027.

I do think something happens after the season. Likely Popkins takes the fall for this years offensive struggles. I do think JS stays.

Option C isn't bad actually. $1.75M is a lot of money for an organization like Cleveland. If it could limit them a bit in terms of what they do in the offseason and also saves the Jays some cap space. Worth doing especially if the Jays know they could re-sign Straw for $6.25M or a cheaper amount.

It would have been cool to see a Scherzer/deGrom pitching matchup.

That’s kind of where I’m at with it. I wonder if 10–20 years from now we look back at this era of professional sports the same way we look back at baseball’s steroid era - where the problems were much broader than what was publicly acknowledged at the time, and the league was slow to seriously confront them. I’m not saying MLB is outright fixing games. There’s no evidence to make that claim. But I do wonder whether there are integrity issues connected to the enormous growth of sports betting that we simply don’t know the full extent of yet, and whether leagues have enough incentive to aggressively investigate something that has also become a major part of their business. MLB already has extensive relationships with the sports-betting industry, and this year it went even further by naming Polymarket its official Prediction Market Exchange partner. MLB says that partnership includes integrity safeguards and cooperation with regulators, which is obviously important. But at the same time, it shows just how intertwined professional baseball and wagering have become. That’s why I think the steroid-era comparison is interesting. Back then, people could see things that didn’t look right long before the full scope of the problem became publicly understood. My concern is that we could eventually look back at the 2020s and say the same thing about gambling and sports integrity - that warning signs were there, but the leagues tended to address individual incidents rather than seriously questioning the larger environment they had helped create.

Looks like I win our Ernie Clement bet. Unless he goes out and mashes all of next week haha.

This team did give us some hope at the end of August and into the beginning of September, but once the easier part of the schedule arrived this month, they really blew the opportunity. Still, something about this team just never felt right. For me, this was probably the most frustrating team to watch during the Atkins era. even more frustrating than the 2023 and 2024 teams. Offense has to be the main priority this offseason. They need another impact bat, ideally up the middle at second base. You simply can’t go into next season with both Gimenez and Clement as everyday starters in the same lineup. I said before this season that Clement is better suited as a super-utility player who can still find his way to around 400 ABs by moving around the diamond. Bo or Jazz would be my main targets at 2B. They also need a DH to replace Springer. As much as I love George, I think it’s time to move on. Ideally, whoever they bring in at DH should also be capable of playing 40–50 games at another position, preferably in the outfield. Lineup flexibility matters. As for Santander, I wouldn’t head into Spring Training expecting anything from him. I’d still target another bat, and if Santander comes back healthy and contributes, great. They’ll find ways to work him into the lineup, and injuries always create opportunities over the course of a season. I also think they may have found their centre fielder for next season and hopefully beyond in Bateman. He’s done more than enough, in my opinion, to enter next year with the CF job. In left field, I’m fine running another platoon. You can bring Lukes back and find a right-handed bat to pair with him. Ideally, that player would also be capable of playing all three outfield spots. I really don’t want to see Straw as part of that platoon. At most, keep him around as a fifth outfielder and defensive replacement, but at $5 million, that’s a lot of money for a fifth outfielder with very little offensive value. C Kirk 1B Vladdy 2B Bo or Jazz SS Gimenez 3B Okamoto RF Barger CF Bateman LF Lukes/RHB platoon DH another bat or Santander Bench: Clement, Valenzuela, RHB outfield (platoon), Straw

I only bet the ponies haha

I’d imagine there was also a fair amount of money bet on Vladdy going over his season home run total, especially coming off the postseason he had and then his performance in the WBC. And with the Blue Jays making it all the way to the World Series last season, I’m also curious how much money was wagered before this season on Toronto to win the AL East, win the American League, make the playoffs, or get back to the World Series. None of that means anything improper is happening, of course. But with sportsbooks, betting apps, player props, futures and parlays now so closely woven into the way fans experience professional sports, I do think it’s reasonable to pay closer attention to how much money is riding on certain outcomes. At the very least, it makes some of these results feel more noticeable than they might have in the past.

I remember during the offseason, someone on here mentioned his name about signing him as a depth arm or something. Would have been a nice arm to have this season.

How the hell does Cal Quantrill have a 2.90 ERA?

The game was fixed.

For last night’s game (Dylan Cease vs. Kumar Rocker), DraftKings’ betting splits reportedly showed roughly 79–81% of moneyline tickets on Toronto, but an enormous 97–99% of the actual money wagered was on the Jays at around -136/-137. Texas had only about 1–3% of the handle at +113/+114. Add in all the parlays that likely included Toronto, and sportsbooks had to love that result. Then Cease goes out, walks six batters, records only eight outs, and finishes with just three strikeouts. Considering how much action there was likely on Cease strikeout overs as well, it ended up being almost a perfect result for the books. I'm not saying the game was fixed or directly influenced. There’s obviously no evidence of that. But with MLB now so closely intertwined with sportsbooks and betting apps, nights like this are exactly why I find myself questioning the authenticity of North American professional sports more than I used to. When such an overwhelming percentage of the money is on one side, that team completely implodes, and virtually every popular Cease prop gets wiped out at the same time, it’s hard not to at least raise an eyebrow. Especially if it's already planned that the Jays won't make the Postseason. Call it conspiracy thinking if you want, but last night was certainly one of those games that makes you wonder.