MLBTraderumours predictions for Ray and Semien: The initials and the teams listed are each writer's prediction on where each player will sign. They all think we keep Ray and not Semien.
6. Marcus Semien. Six years, $138MM.
TD: Red Sox / SA: Dodgers / AF: Angels
Semien settled in as Oakland’s dependable starting shortstop as of 2015, but his offense skyrocketed in 2019 en route to a third-place finish in AL MVP voting. An unimpressive regular season in 2020 led to Semien betting on himself in free agency, signing a one-year, $18MM deal with the Blue Jays and moving to second base. With the Jays, Semien established that 2020 was the fluke, as his monster 45 home run 2021 campaign will net him MVP votes once again. Semien’s Statcast batting metrics don’t stand out this year, but you can’t argue with the results.
Defensively, Semien may profile better at second base than shortstop, but he’s played significantly more short in his career and should at least be good for a few years there. Semien does carry the weight of a qualifying offer, but interest should be robust for clubs that missed out on Correa and Seager or prefer not to shop in the $300MM aisle. His market also may differ from Correa and Seager in that he’s more likely to be signed as a second baseman. As a 31-year-old, Semien may be limited to a six-year pact, itself hard to achieve at this age. The Blue Jays will surely attempt to re-sign Semien, but otherwise the Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cardinals, and Dodgers are other potential matches.
7. Robbie Ray. Five years, $130MM.
TD: Blue Jays / SA: Blue Jays / AF: Blue Jays
Drafted by the Nationals out of high school in the 12th round in 2010, Ray was traded to the Tigers in the December 2013 Doug Fister deal. A year later, Ray was dealt to the Diamondbacks in the three-way trade that sent Didi Gregorius to the Yankees. Ray found success in his first five seasons for the D’Backs as a high-strikeout, high-walk, homer-prone southpaw. In 2017, he made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting. But in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Ray’s already-high walk rate jumped to an untenable 20.1% through seven starts, and with free agency looming he was shipped to Toronto mostly as a salary dump.
Ray’s brief effort for the 2020 Jays didn’t stand out, and he still walked batters at a higher rate than he had from 2015-19 in Arizona. Toronto saw something they liked nonetheless, making an early free agent strike by re-upping him to a one-year, $8MM deal in November last year.
Ray began the 2021 season on the IL for a bruised elbow suffered falling down some stairs. After a six-walk outing on April 18th, the notion of Ray contending for the AL Cy Young award would have been laughable — but that’s exactly what he did. The 30-year-old lefty led all of baseball with 248 strikeouts, also solving his longstanding walk issue with a career-best 6.9 BB%. Ray’s 2.84 ERA was the best in the American League. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic put it, “How Ray went from good to elite took a change in his mechanics, a change in his approach and a change in his physique.” Still, it wasn’t a radical overhaul in terms of pitch selection for Ray, who has remained a fastball-slider pitcher.
Ray showed strong control over a five-month period this year. For a potential new team, how much does that erase his 13 BB% from the three prior years? It’s also worth considering that Ray allowed a home run to 4.3% of batters faced this year, 19th-worst in MLB among those with at least 100 innings pitched. While Ray is about nine months younger than fellow top free agent Gausman, the lefty bears the burden of a qualifying offer. Their markets figure to be similar.