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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Couple of flaws in your logic here. The Jays were not projected at 100 wins, but they performed like a team that should have won 100 games. There were many players on the Jays that outperformed their projections substantially aside from Ray and Semien. In fact, looking at pre-season projections for nearly all position players, they almost all outperformed their projections or were within .5WAR down from the projections. Starting pitching almost universally outperformed projections, aside from Ryu. The pen was the pen, that's always gonna be volatile. Does that mean we should expect the exact same next season with nearly every SP and position player? No.
  2. John_Havok
    Probably, and I agree the criticism is unwarranted for the most part.
  3. John_Havok
    Just an example: "What a great story Atlanta is. Lost 3 key pieces of the team due to injury and off-field issues. Could have folded. Could have played for 2022. Went for it. And now Atlanta is in the NLCS."
  4. John_Havok
    Losing.
  5. John_Havok
    I don’t think making it a judgement call is a good idea either. With umpires the less judgement they use, the better.
  6. John_Havok
    Maybe that’s a low, but gotta remember Vlad was less than thrilling in years 1 and 2. Bellinger’s 3 seasons prior to arbitration he’d already hit 111 HR and 288 RBI, arbitration awards love counting stats and they don’t just consider the 1 year immediately prior to arbitration, but all of them. Even prorating Vlad #s in seasons 1 and 2 to full seasons his numbers are noticeably lower than Bellinger’s. Vlad was a monster his 3rd year, after being practically a nothing burger in years 1 and 2. Bellinger was a monster in year 3 after being all star level in year 1 and 2. Not to mention he was the NL MVP in year 3 and ROY in year 1.
  7. John_Havok
    IMO they should be treated differently because if a ball hits the ground in play prior to going over the wall, it shouldn’t be the same thing as a ball clearing the wall. It’s two different things. Reductionism comes into play rather than just looking at the nonspecific events as “both balls left the field of play between the foul lines after being hit by the batter”
  8. John_Havok
    The difference in the examples is that a ball off the players head is still a legally catchable ball for an out, ie a ball that is in flight. Once the ball his the wall and/or ground, it’s no longer a legally catchable ball, ie no longer in flight. A ball can’t be ruled a home run if it’s no longer a ball that is in flight.
  9. John_Havok
    Nah he and Freeman can split 1b and DH. I know it won’t happen, but it could work
  10. John_Havok
    I have several times. Every time I do the blood massively rushing into my naughty parts causes me to pass out. I actually think adding Freeman into the lineup and grabbing a cheaper defensive 3b piece is a valid option rather than trading the farm for Ramirez. Still need pitching help in either scenario though
  11. John_Havok
    A little sure. Both of those gentleman have a massive track record of extended success and will be free agents. Bo has 1000 PAs in his career and still under control for 4 more seasons. He doesn’t even hit Arb 1 until 2023. An extension for Bo still has plenty of time to percolate.
  12. John_Havok
    When he's taking walks.
  13. John_Havok
    I dont think they need to rush into a Vlad extension yet, even if we do assume a nice cordial PA/Owners negotiation that ends with rainbow parades and hand jobs all around from Taiwanese massage therapists. They'll get serious about an extension with him if he shows up to camp another 20-30 pounds lighter and continues to show he is serious about keeping himself in full season + playoff shape. Last season was a great 1st step in that journey, but he needs to take another step this off-season.
  14. John_Havok
    I like Bo. But a 300 million dollar long term extension for him would be the height of lunacy.
  15. John_Havok
    Without a contract between the players and owners, especially with the whole floor/luxury tax fight that's likely about to happen, it's probably more difficult than ever to try and predict what the Jays will ultimately have to spend
  16. John_Havok
    I’d love to land Clase, but yeah…not straight up for Kirk. Kirk, Orelvis plus another legit asset or assets for Ramirez and Clase….yup.
  17. John_Havok
    Exactly. Seems like some think that Donaldson is some anchor preventing the team from being able to compete and win games. Honestly, his contract may have been negative value this year, but depending on WAR vs dollars and where that is this year, it’s not some sinkhole. He could actually provide positive contract value next season and it would not be a surprise, and to me it’s actually quite likely. He’s not some degraded asset desperately needing to be offloaded. Grichuk was .5 WAR for 10 million, Donaldson was 2.2 for double that. Neither of those is tremendous, but for some to act like trading these two for each other makes sense and would be equal value is not reflective of reality. Donaldson still helps you win games, he just costs more money to do it. Grichuk is far worse of an asset
  18. John_Havok
    You've done some fine leg work here, but Im wondering why our bench is steaming pile of slap hitting junk? I like the defensive utility, but I'd like to see some thump on the bench as well. Maybe tweak your plan to include some power on the bench and see how it looks. Also, not a fan of your 2b situation. That would likely need some more thought as well. Also, who are the depth starters when injury strikes?
  19. John_Havok
    yeah, defense does fluctuate a little based on # of defensive chances and other factors. Point being, he's not a black hole and I dont think it's reasonable to look straight at his 2.2 fWAR season and expect that is his new norm. in the short Season before he put up 1 fWAR in 100 PAs. Checking his batted ball metrics he is top 3-10 in a ton of meaningful categories, like avg Exit velocity, barells per AB, hard hit rate etc. HIs bat is still lethal.
  20. John_Havok
    2-4 WAR player at 25 per year for the next 2 years (assuming the 8M buyout for 2024 is done) is hardly an albatross. Yeah, I can see why Minnesota isn't hyped about spending that kind of money on him, given their current situation, but they're not gonna be so eager to move Donaldson that they take pennies on the dollar. Donaldson killed baseballs this year and was pretty much at his career norms in K and walk rates. Oddly, his WAR was down due to a bad defensive year which I would be skeptical that he just drops off a cliff in that way. Donaldson could easily be a 4-5 WAR player next season. Would I love to get rid of Grichuk and pick up Donaldson? Of course, but thinking it would be a 1 for 1 swap is ludicrous.
  21. John_Havok
    I'd love to hear what the minnesota GM would say if that offer came though his phone. He'd probably hang up before the sentence was even finished.
  22. John_Havok
    He was born in raised in California, and there's always been rumblings that he would prefer to play for a west coast team as a result. If rumours are to be believed, then if the money and length of contract are similar, he'd likely choose a west coast destination.
  23. John_Havok
    Nice! St. Louis can f*** off
  24. John_Havok
    4.5 hours and still in the 9th….wtf baseball
  25. John_Havok
    TO be fair, I honestly don't think Ray or Berrios are playoff winning teams #1's either, so... it seems my bar for playoff team pitching a slightly higher than some.
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