John_Havok
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Everything posted by John_Havok
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You're still not quite grasping the full situation. It's absolutely possible for a defender to be really good one year, and then average or worse the next, just like it's possible for hitters to be really good one year, and then average or worse the next. This idea that if something can't be perfectly quantified down to the tiniest variance and detail that it becomes completely unreliable is a terrible way to look at things.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
John_Havok replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Naw, it's just the desk job of MLB players. -
I'll boil it down then to an actual question that could be answered. Is there a way to add the skill of 1b with picking balls in the dirt, throwing guys out across the diamond, and other skills specific to 1b into some kind of additional defensive value to 1b? For example, right now OAA would give credit to another IF for fielding a ground ball, and throwing "wild" to 1B and requiring the 1b to make a pick, stretch, jumping catch etc... that may other wise result in an error for the IF and the runner getting on base.
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Would it vary based on stealing or being caught stealing 2nd vs 3rd vs home and/or the number of outs at the time? Like, how run expectancy would change? I’m thinking Elly de la Cruz stealing all three bases in like 30 seconds the other night might be worth more than just stealing 2nd three separate times.
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Mozeliak - “We’re going to trade people.” Love this kind of in-depth quote.
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dang, all i get when googling my name is some guy who does black light art with naked women. Actually, that's not bad.
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when calculating xBA, do you think it's possible to start incorporating spray angle into it's formulation?
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Possible, but... one thing the recent changes in MILB have done with the reduction in teams and levels... college baseball has never had more talent in it. It is at least somehwat plausible that the talent coming out of d1 these days is much better than 5 years ago.
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Says alot about how the indutry sees the top 3 picks of this draft when they immediately get slotted into top 4, 5 and 6 spots in the entire minor league system
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Naw, just type out the novella. I have further stuff on 1b too, just want you to cover yours in case mine is a lot of duplication
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defense thread connor, if he has time im sure we could get into an offense thread also
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If you had to self-critique OAA in any way, what improvements would you shoot for?
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How much, if at all, is OAA influenced by the number of opportunities a player gets ?
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Yeah, Adams is a guy thats been really wild from the getgo, and i can forsee the argument stating Aroldis is just as bad right now... which is true, but Aroldis is also coming off virtually his whole career of being utterly dominant with that same K rate and BB rate under 4 ... it's only recent seasons he's bean near 6 BB/9 so he's definitely going to be getting more rope than a guy who comes up for 5 innings strikes out 10 but also walks 8.
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Take those same names and show their career BB/9, that should answer the question.
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My question about OAA, i know it takes player positioning into account, batted ball data, runner speed, and a few other things for infielders. My question is, for a 1b who is positioned at a certain spot, RH glove, and a ball goes down the line just far enough to get past him... does OAA compare him strictly to other batted ball events where the 1b that started in relatively the same spot and relatively the same batted ball velocity and batted ball location to determine whether or not another 1b would have made the play? Or is it just a simpler... the guy has X amount of time to get to the ball and then X amount of time to convert it to the out and just determines whether or not that is possible with varying degrees of difficulty?
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Couldn’t pick a Jay, no bench option….f*** Texas…..Ohtani wasn’t worth picking pointswise, and Hays can suck a dick. That left two Rays. 50/50 ….
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The real TomTango….or what might be the best trolling attempt in recent memory. Either way I’m down for the show.
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No +1 for the first HR of the game? Asking for a friend…
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
John_Havok replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Not at all, just that the Jays might have a "Weak system" in the eyes of prospect ranking sites, but teams with assets make deals based on who they like, not who someone else likes. We've seen plenty of deals as evidence in the past few seasons where people think teams took a weaker deal vs other offers. Strenth of system at trade deadline time is all in the eyes of the team with the asset being dangled. Teams don't generally engage in bidding wars for trades the way people think -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
John_Havok replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I think there's a misconception about how trades work in general. It's not like GMs are all on the phone at the same time trying to one-up each other for trade candidates. Each GM will essentially have an idea of their top offers, start with something lower than that, offer that, and if declined, they may circle back later if the player is still available and offer something slightly higher if they really want the player. But they'll always have an idea of their absolute top offer and not go beyond that even if it's demanded by the other team. Unless of course that GM is AJ Preller. -
Apparently Robert Jr tweaked his calf in the HR derby, will not play in the AS game and is listed as day-to-day
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
John_Havok replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
OAA, FRAA, DRS, UZR, my eyes. I typically find OAA to be the best single snapshot as it's based on statcast data and takes positioning, batted ball data, runner speed and other things into account. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)
John_Havok replied to Krylian's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
No, when looking at defense I look at numerous things, but this year they all agree that Vlad has definitely not been good this year. What the metrics cant really tell you is why. It's not like he's suddenly terrible at gloving balls, we can see he does just fine at picking balls in the dirt at 1b. The only thing I think might be different this year is how they have him positioned when there's a runner on 1st. I honestly cant remember if they had him play the same way last season or not. That, taken with perhaps an abnormally large number of balls hit in the areas his new positioning fails to cover could be the reason his numbers are low.
