John_Havok

This isnt very evident based on your comments that you are surprised that I would sign Bellinger to a market value deal despite his crap underlying metrics.

They haven't been poorly managed overall. They just haven't got over the hump, the hardest part to do.

Not really. I can see you don't understand the current economics of the game. ~20 million per year is about his market value. I wouldn't want to go past 4 years given his age and the risk of his crap underlying numbers further reducing the bat value. The elite D and baserunning are a decent floor to rely on that even if he turns into KK with the bat, the length and AAV isn't an albatross. the likely 8/200 he is asking for is just stupid.

YEah that was a poor effort on the Phillies' 1b, should have been a DP

Meh, defense let him down, couple of dribblers that snuck through, terrible contact went for an IF hit. Could have been out of it with no damage pretty easily. Slider was inconsistent.

Some Pearson #'s... Max velo on FB was 99.6, lowest was 95.6, avg 96.8 - not bad for his first spring appearance to be 1 mph lower than his season avg in 2023. FB zone rate was 71%. 14 thrown, 8 swings, 1 miss. 2 called strikes. CB - 5 thrown, 0 swings, 60% zone rate but only 2 called strikes so blue missed one for him Slider - 6 thrown, 50% zone rate, 2 swings, no misses. splitter - 1 thrown, 1 swing and miss out of the zone.

IKF - 102.5 EV on that RBI single

Sweet spot ... contact rate... xba, whiff rate and k rate. Sweet spot doesnt really mean much... and the other 4 are all basically interrealated. they also dont combine well with 33rd chase rate and 27th percentile walk rate. WHat good is a great contact rate when your exit velo is 22nd percentile(1.2 mph ahead of Keirmaier) hard hit rate is 10th percentile, and barrel rate is 27th percentile? Great you make a ton of s*** contact, but don't walk a lot, though you do hit for a nearly empty average with 57th percentile xSLG and 53rd percentile xwOBA. COuple that with elite D and baserunning. THat's not a guy that you sign long term. That's a guy that could easily be KK in 2 years. Would I sign him shorter term? yup. 20 million AAV, sure. But not much longer than 3-4 years.

Yeah, i gave up trying to really predict what a FO will or won't do since i have about 0.05% of the information they do. Trying to rationalize moves after the fact to understand their mindset is a bit easier. It's obvious what the Jays need position-wise, but its also obvious they can't just cut a blank check to anyone we think might fit those needs. Sure, would be nice to have Chapman back, or Bellinger given the current alternatives in house, but knowing what you need is about the first 1% of the job and is so obvious even the comments section on Sportsnet could get it right about 25% of the time. Chappy and Bellinger are interesting specifically because they have the same problem, as a result of totally opposite problems. Neither can get the long term contract they want, because people are skeptical their results won't sustain; Bellinger's because of s*** underlying numbers and Chapman because his s*** results haven't matched great underlying numbers. The great D from both isn't enough to hang the long term big money deal on.

The fans job is to either buy tickets ...or not. Buy merch...or not. Watch the game on TV, or not. Stream it...or not. That's how fans express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction. Don't consume it and it will change. Keep consuming it while whining on message boards or comments sections....nothing changes.

I think my overall point is that the AAV of 1b isn't going to be a 30 million+ payday like some may think even if he does have 2 back to back good years. He would have to have back to back MVP caliber years and show drastic improvement in defense to allow that to even enter the conversation

Tiedeman is starting the spring opener

ftfy

That Ryu deal for the KBO is apparently an 8 year deal, not a 4 year deal as first reported. 8 year, 12.8m

That's top of the range ...Freeman, Goldschmidt, Olson...is Vlad worth that right now? I'd say no. But after 2 more years of the 40+ HR 150 wRC+ Vlad...yeah.

Even with a couple of elite seasons... Look at recent 1b contracts, that position doesn't get paid like the SS or CF of MLB. He'd probably still be only looking at 7/150-160 ...maybe 6/150+ at the most

Yes it is honestly. Whatever the sport is, if you're a pro, you're in some kind of pain or discomfort pretty much daily. Its just a matter of the severity, like whether it's an acute thing or a wear and tear thing.

If Yonge and Bloor at midnight with drunk spanky on the corner throwing a bottle isn't on the jersey, we riot

And now, the long awaited "VLad is in the best shape of his life .." piece from the athletic. DUNEDIN, Fla. – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was preparing to step to the plate for batting practice during Tuesday’s first full-squad workout when a fan called out. “Hey, Vladdy — looking good!” The Toronto Blue Jays first baseman responded to the fan’s compliment with a friendly thumbs-up. That random fan wasn’t the only one who took note of Guerrero’s leaner physique. After an offseason dedicated to getting fitter, the 24-year-old slugger arrived at the Blue Jays’ player development complex this week looking noticeably slimmer and stronger. It was similar to how he prepared ahead of his monster 2021 season and the Blue Jays can only hope this process leads to the same result. “He looks great,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said of Guerrero. “He put a ton of work in and I love the way he looks, love the way he’s prepared, and that’s what really good players do. They take ownership of everything in the offseason and they’re ready to go.” Guerrero has been the planet Toronto’s offence has orbited around since he debuted in 2019. Since he stepped onto a big-league field, Guerrero has been an above-average hitter. But since his breakout season in 2021, when he had an American League-leading 1.002 OPS with 48 home runs and finished second behind Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting, his offensive numbers have declined. He had a .818 OPS in 2022 and a .788 OPS in 2023. Guerrero’s floor is high considering even his down years are better than the major-league average. But, as he proved in 2021, his ceiling is as high as they come. He’s capable of being one of the game’s few elite hitters. This offseason, Guerrero re-dedicated himself to being in a better position physically to be that guy once again. With just two seasons left before he hits free agency, now is the time to prove that 2021 wasn’t a fluke. Speaking candidly to reporters on Tuesday, Guerrero said via Blue Jays interpreter Hector Lebron that while he worked hard last offseason, “I didn’t work as hard as I did this year.” Guerrero spent most of this past offseason in Florida, where he worked out at a private facility in Tampa. (If you follow Guerrero on Instagram, you probably saw him posting videos of his progress throughout the winter months.) He said his goal was to improve his entire body and report to camp in as good shape as he’d been ahead of the 2021 season. “I achieved all the goals that I wanted to achieve,” Guerrero said. “Of course, being in shape like I used to be, like I felt before in previous years, and I really believe that I achieved that goal. And I feel great right now.” Asked if he feels faster and stronger, Guerrero quipped, “Faster? I don’t know about that. But stronger? Yes.” Getting out of bed every morning, he feels fresher, Guerrero said. The hope is that he can maintain that feeling throughout the demanding 162-game season. Last year, Guerrero said, he was rarely feeling at his best. The first baseman had documented issues with his left wrist and right knee last year — he missed a handful of games, but was never placed on the injured list — but he said his pain spanned “from head to toes.” That said, Guerrero didn’t want to use nagging injuries as an excuse for his performance, instead saying the onus was on him because he didn’t prepare as well as he could have. “If I tell you that I didn’t play with pain in a lot of games, I would be lying,” he said. “But that’s not an excuse. It’s part of the game. Sometimes you got to go on the field and grind, even if everything hurts. Also, I probably won’t blame that because I didn’t have the best preparation in the offseason last year.” Along with working out this offseason, Guerrero was also working through the arbitration process. After the Blue Jays and Guerrero failed to agree to terms before the January deadline, the two parties went to a hearing, where independent arbiters ruled in Guerrero’s favour and awarded him a record $19.9 million contract for the 2024 season. Guerrero attended the hearing in Arizona (when asked why, he said: “If I don’t go, I lose”). Considering the proceedings can make for uncomfortable listening for players, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins said the responsibility was on the front office to ensure there were no hard feelings between Guerrero and the team. “It’s not something I’m worried about at all,” Atkins said. “Having said that, I do acknowledge that it’s not an easy process. These are stressful things to go through. We would love to avoid that. But money isn’t just the solution. There’s a process that’s in place that we have to be respectful of.” For his part, Guerrero said he understands it’s part of the business. He has spoken to the front office and said, “I don’t feel bad at all.” “You turn the page and it’s all good,” he said. Now looking ahead to the upcoming season, Guerrero is optimistic about what the Blue Jays can do this season, especially as they aim to improve their offensive numbers from a year ago when they were a middle-of-the-pack scoring team. Guerrero is particularly pleased about the addition of veteran Justin Turner, who the Blue Jays first baseman tried to recruit when the 39-year-old was playing for the rival Boston Red Sox. “Last year at first base, I talked to him and I told him, ‘Hey, you’re going to become a free agent next year, so you might take a chance and sign with us,’” Guerrero said. As for his own game, Guerrero said he wants to approach the season much like he did in 2021. That year, he said, he didn’t think of specific numbers or goals he wanted to hit, instead keeping his mind unburdened from expectations. He is hopeful that the same strategy will work once again. “Maybe (I’ll have) the same numbers,” he said. “Maybe better.”

The next version of "The Rookie". ? https://www.mlb.com/news/42-year-old-youth-coach-throwing-101-mph Guy who was drafted in 2004 is now hitting 101 mph and trying to catch on with an MLB club at 42.

Nice fluff piece on Davis Schneider from the Athletic • • • Davis Schneider is a rookie at big-league camp but on a mission to be a Blue Jays mainstay Kaitlyn McGrath DUNEDIN, Fla. — After experiencing a year of firsts in the major leagues last season — his first game, his first at-bat, his first home run — Davis Schneider is experiencing another milestone this spring. This is his first big-league spring training. “We’ve been joking with him,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “Guys are giving him a little bit of crap about that.” The teasing has been playful, and mostly poking fun at Schneider’s unconventional progression from overnight big-league sensation to a first-time camp invitee. But there are advantages to doing things in reverse order. Namely, Schneider bypassed the whole wide-eyed experience of walking into his first major-league camp and instead arrived with a level of comfort rookies don’t usually have. “I wasn’t here last year and I kind of felt left out because all my buddies were up here and I was on the minor-league side,” Davis Schneider said. “I still had obviously friends over there, but it’s a cool feeling being here right now with all these guys and I feel like I’m part of the team early in February already.” Comfort does not equal complacency for Schneider, though. The 25-year-old infielder may have made MLB history with his 1.315 OPS through his first 25 career games along with a few other accolades during the sensational start to his career, but he has come into camp as one of a surplus of infielders competing for a spot on the opening-day roster and hopefully following his debut season with a second act just as compelling. “You still got to compete with the guys here and you just got to make sure you go out there and give 100 percent each day because the decisions are up to everyone else,” Davis Schneider said. “The players aren’t the ones making decisions. You just got to go out there and make sure you’re giving that effort that you have and let the other things take care of itself.” A year ago, Schneider’s big-league experience rivalled a Disney movie. A 28th-round draft pick in 2017, Schneider bulked up before the 2023 season and unlocked a new level of power. After his breakout performance in Triple A, he was called up to the Blue Jays in early August. In his first at-bat at Fenway Park, he hit a home run over the Green Monster and finished with an MLB-record nine hits and two homers in his first three games. “I remember calling him later that night after his first game, and he was like, ‘What the heck just happened?’” said infielder Spencer Horwitz, who’s been Schneider’s minor-league teammate for the past four seasons “Everyone was so excited for him. It was really cool to see.” Schneider, with his unique blend of power and patience, went on to hit .426/.526/.894 in 14 games in August and, as manager John Schneider put it, “he carried us for a while there last year,” as the Blue Jays clung to a playoff spot. His on-field heroics quickly captured the hearts of fans. Schneider endeared himself further with his unique look as a bespectacled moustached big-leaguer wearing Nike Air Monarchs — the unofficial shoe of dads everywhere — and his down-to-earth nature, which shone every time he took a photo with fans, even ones who were halting traffic. “(It) still doesn’t feel like it happened?” Davis Schneider said of his incredible first month with the Jays. “I feel like that’s a good thing to have that mindset just because I don’t want to ever be complacent. I don’t want to ever be like, I made it and I just want to stay right here. I still want to try to do great things and try to do a little bit better than what I did last year. But it’s cool to look back at and see I am capable of doing those things and I want to continue to build off that success I had last year and I feel like I am capable of doing it.” He slowed down considerably in his second month with Toronto and ended his season with a 2-for-35 stretch. Even amid the extended troubles, he said never felt too stressed out about his performance. “No matter how high you are, you’re going to have that low to where you’re going to feel like this is like the end of the world — but I didn’t really feel like that last year,” Schneider said. “That mindset of, go out there and just give it 100 percent is what I had last year even when I was going bad. If I didn’t get a hit, so what? Just go out there and make sure the next at-bat, you’re giving it your all and feel like I’m going to do that this year a lot, too.” After his whirlwind tour of the majors, Schneider’s life slowed down considerably in the offseason when he had the prototypical young adult experience and moved back to his hometown, where he lived in his parents’ basement. (Big leaguers, they’re just like us!) Berlin, New Jersey is a small town best known for its local farmer’s market, but Schneider, a self-described homebody, prefers it that way. Now, during spring training, Schneider is sharing an apartment with Horwitz and Ernie Clement, and the trio spend their evenings playing the board game Settlers of Catan. “I’m boring,” Schneider said. “I feel like I’m a boring, normal dude.” The Blue Jays like what this boring, normal dude’s bat can do for their lineup, especially against left-handers, and sent Schneider home with instructions to spend the offseason working out primarily at second base and left field, the positions he would most likely see playing time at this season. Schneider is still prepared to earn those opportunities and it will begin with a productive camp, which opens next week, with the first full-squad workout on Tuesday. Schneider will be trying to stand out in a crowded infield picture that includes Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Clement and Horwitz, along with non-roster camp invitees Eduardo Escobar and Daniel Vogelbach as well as prospects Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger. That’s 10 guys vying for five roster spots, and there is a built-in assumption that Kiner-Falefa and Biggio will claim two of them. “I’m trying to make the team and trying to do everything I can to be there,” said Horwitz, his roommate and a left-hitting first baseman. “And (Schneider’s) like, ‘Yeah, me too.’ I’m like, ‘I don’t know if you’re going to make it, but you obviously have put yourself in a good spot.’ He’s definitely not taking it for granted what he did last year. I think it’s pushed him and motivated him more.” It’s his friend’s humanity that most stands out to Horwitz. “One word to describe him would be kind — he’s a very kind soul, kind person and it comes from his family,” Horwitz said of Schneider. “On the weekends, what does he do? He golfs, he hangs out with his dog. He works out. He’s a very approachable person. And I think that’s why so many people have latched onto him. People can see themselves in him and I think that’s what they enjoy a lot.” Schneider fondly remembers how Blue Jays fans got behind him, none more so than an at-bat during the final series of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays. Schneider was in the midst of his extended hitless streak. When he walked up to the plate in the seventh inning as a pinch hitter, he heard a rousing applause. “I struck out on three pitches, though, but when I came up to the plate, it was like the crowd went nuts and that was my favourite at-bat just because the fans understood,” he said. After a first year filled with surreal moments like that, Schneider is eager to get back to the big leagues. But not before putting the work in this spring. “It’s a new year, anything could happen. Still trying to go out there and compete with these guys,” Schneider said. “Lot of good guys on this team that you got to compete with. You’re obviously competing with 29 other teams … but spring training is for competition within the individual team and you want to push each other to work hard and I feel like this team will do that.”

You'll never see a floor without a cap. And before there's a cap, there's probably at least a full season lost due to work stoppage. Free agency in MLB is a pretty good parallel to western economies though. It works great when you're in the 1% at the very top...but is steadily getting worse for anyone below that.

Not sure if mentioned yet but Pearson is working on a splitter in camp. “We’re still working on it, but he threw some really good ones today that could be really effective at the major-league level,” Walker said. Pearson is competing for a spot in the bullpen and the Blue Jays view the right-hander as someone who could pitch up to three innings for them. Walker on Yariel Rodriguez after his first side session: "He’s got a lot of weapons. He’s got just about every pitch in the book from different angles,” Walker said. “He’s got a slight hesitation in the delivery. There are certainly some things there that are interesting, and we’ll just have to kind of fine-tune a little bit and find out what will really work the best at the major-league level.”

Grichuk likely has no interest in coming back to TO for that though, and i doubt the Jays FO would be all that interested either.

yeah that's what I meant, as soon as the end of ST. I can't picture a guy like Escobar thinking he has a real shot at the 40 man looking at the glut of IF on the Jays roster. He'd have a better shot at that in Pittsburgh. But that's got it's own set of problems like... Pittsburgh