John_Havok

How would he even make it twice through the order? He's never pitched more than 105 innings combined when he was a starter in the minors and first brought up to the majors so thats an average of 3.1 innings. no way he can go 4-5 IP per start right now unless they skip him a ton and are only shooting for 20-22 or 23 starts

Fangraphs doesn't suffer from recency bias and surface level assumptions the way fans do

the Cardinals tried this with him already and failed in spectacular fashion. This seems like a weird thing to attempt again I guess the money is good enough that if he fails immediately as a starter they still have a top shelf reliever for 11M per season, but why not just forget the experiment and go that way from the jump? Seems like a plan that has far more downside than upside. I cant imagine he would even be able to hit 100 innings as a starter with his command.

Thing is, we dont even need career years from those guys for the Jays to be better in 2024. even 3 WAR Vlad from 2022 is 2 wins better than last year. Somewhere between 2021 and 2022 vlad he's 4-5 wins. Im not counting on the latter, but I think the former is a realistic expectation. A healthy Bo that doesnt miss 100 PAs like he did in 2023 still gets 4.5-5 WAR....that's another +1 win. This should be the expectation. A league average hitting Varsho is a 4-5 WAR...2-3 more wins. same as Bo, not outlandish expectations. Biggio is already a league average regular over a full season, as a backup. It would be hard to really expect more than that. IKF will be better than 2022 just because he wont be playing defense in a place where he has no value. He wont be Chappy level wins, but wont suck (at least with the glove). KK will be KK Jansen will be Jansen Espinal likely won't play enough for his numbers to move the needle one way or the other. Kirk is really the only guy there who I'm not really sure what to expect, other than being in less than good shape. Springer with even a slight regression back to his career norms would be a boon. The questions about whether or not the team is worse than 2023 I think is on the pitching staff, not the offense or defense.

True, and yeah in my list i wasn't intending to list them in order of skill. In that list it would be Cole, Stro/Cortes, Schmidt. Rodon ... at his best would be after Cole

List of all possible arb hearings coming up unless deals are made between now and then: Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand) Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand) Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand) Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand) J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand) Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand) Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand) Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand) Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand) Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand) Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand) Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand) Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand) Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand) Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand) Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand) Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand) Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand) Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmeyer) Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic) Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)

....uh no.

The arb system is broken for sure but not because a guy gets a raise after a down year. It's broken because young guys like him are chronically underpaid whilst having the best years of their careers.

Absolutely, though they let their starters go deeper than most. 3 guys with 185+ and one with 170 isnt exactly evidence of chronic early hooks.

Arb takes his entire body of work into account, not just the most recent. As much as Vlad has underachieved his skill level he's still in pretty rarified air when it comes to his numbers over the first 4 years of service time.

Well the halfway point of those numbers is 19 million so if those are the real numbers that are going to and arb hearing...I don't see it going the Jays way with his overall HR totals

Even without injury luck they'll be tough. Cole, Cortez, Schmidt and Stro is a legit top 4 without even thinking about Rodon. What's going to suck extra hard is when the Yanks sign Hader.

If they go to a hearing Vlad is winning my that all day long.

Every arb eligible Jay has signed with the exception of Vlad

The only next level for KK is avoiding the IL. If he does that, he’s potentially 3+ fWAR. With injuries…maybe 1-1.5.

I think it’s the hamstrings and obliques that pop up every year for Jansen that most worry about, in addition to the freak injuries that catchers are far more prone to. Catchers just get beat up, they get hit by more balls than (insert your own joke here), so to also have a guy who has the more “strain” type injuries, it’s hard for me to want to extend a guy for 4 years. I’d be inclined to sign him for two or three max with a few options, and incentives for games played.

Excellent work on fixing the issues juiced. Top shelf as always

[ Here's MLBtraderumors projected ARB salaries for the guys lkisted in the above post, service time is in brackets. Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K

NBA does do this sometimes, like they admitted a few nights ago there was a non call on Quickley that should have been called, and again last night in the Pacers-Celtics game.

I think a lot of it is just the wild inconsistency of calls being made on certain players vs others. Like, whenever Davis drove the lane and finished, if there was any contact at all, he went to the line. Barnes gets mugged by Davis on a dunk, drive and layup, whatever it was….play on. If they were one-off types of calls you can understand a non-call or two over the course of a game, but when it’s so obvious from possession to possession it’s a bad look.

I have Frenchy as yet unblocked, but his two obvious parrot accounts are

Maybe, but why would you assume all else is the same? Is there not the chance that other guys also get back to their projections?

True. I'm just rewatching the quarter now and there's many examples of the exact same contact that resulted in a fouls call on the raptors not getting called when Barnes is on the receiving end. I guess he's not a big enough star just yet.

Justin Steele? maybe not quite enough track record to be in a top 10 convo but It would definitely not be shocking to see him near the top of any pitching leaderboard in 2024

LeBron's quote after being told of Darko's rant.... "I felt like they fouled and we didn't" - not that you'd really expect him to say anything different.