Laika

MLBTR's list of non-tender candidates: Position Players Pedro Alvarez Brandon Barnes Peter Bourjos Drew Butera Chris Carter Pedro Ciriaco Collin Cowgill Tony Cruz Ike Davis Ryan Flaherty Sam Fuld Paul Janish Jose Lobaton David Lough Will Middlebrooks Tyler Moore Brandon Moss Nolan Reimold Ben Revere Rene Rivera Hector Sanchez Michael Saunders Eric Sogard Ruben Tejada Josh Thole Mark Trumbo Brett Wallace Pitchers Al Alburquerque Henderson Alvarez Steve Cishek Louis Coleman Tim Collins Ryan Cook Aaron Crow Steve Delabar Felix Doubront Josh Edgin Neftali Feliz Charlie Furbush Nick Hagadone Greg Holland Jeff Locke Ryan Mattheus Jenrry Mejia Mike Minor Addison Reed Marc Rzepczynski Tanner Scheppers Craig Stammen Carlos Torres Jacob Turner Joe Wieland Vance Worley A ton of very intriguing names that aren't on any FA list anywhere.

I was assuming that his market would be tempered a bit by the concern around his elbow, and how s***** he was with KC. But I guess you can read between the lines and assume that the medicals are strong.

I think that the depth of prospects under consideration in the board dynasty leagues should mean that almost anyone in those leagues should be able to contribute in an informed way, if they want. For the DDL and LoD, that would add: The Cats Ass TheRealMin jays_fever SpeedyGose jays4life19 KingKat Gibbers spittin Abomination havok24 z3r0s NorthOf49 Frag silvergun Fearthedoc Chappy connorp Boxcar jaysblue vdartanian AdamGreenwood Orgfiller Dr. Dinger Torontofan Sammy225 There are a few names there that probably don't follow prospects too closely, but I doubt they'd want to be involved anyway (eg,. connorp). And, obviously, a bunch of those guys couldn't care less. But a few people on this list might want in.

I support this method and I will get around to submitting my list at some point

Do I see THE Zach Lee on that list?

disagree there's also a nuanced understanding of how specific types of players translate to the big leagues that only I and people like me are born with

Why did TL leave?

Doing a consensus community vote is dumb because most of the people here are dumb

wow, apparently Cueto turned down 6/$120 from the D-Bags.

Sea Bass 2.0

There are probably 6 or so owners that haven't really done much this offseason in terms of being involved, updating trade blocks, responding to messages. It's fine though. Some people just aren't that active in the offseason.

Heyward will only be 26 next year. He is probably a top 10 projected position player by WAR. We would expect him to approach 5 WAR in 2016, actually get better in 2017, and then stay basically that good for a year or two before decline kicks in. Which is to say that in year TEN of a Heyward contract, we might expect him to still be a league average player, or thereabouts. You could pay Jason Heyward $200M and actually expect to get a massive surplus on that deal. [table=width: 500] [tr] [td]WAR[/td] [td]$/WAR[/td] [td]VALUE[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4.7[/td] [td]8[/td] [td]37.6[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4.95[/td] [td]8.56[/td] [td]42.37[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4.95[/td] [td]9.25[/td] [td]45.76[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]4.45[/td] [td]9.98[/td] [td]44.43[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]3.95[/td] [td]10.78[/td] [td]42.59[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]3.45[/td] [td]11.65[/td] [td]40.18[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2.95[/td] [td]12.58[/td] [td]37.10[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]2.45[/td] [td]13.58[/td] [td]33.28[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]1.95[/td] [td]14.67[/td] [td]28.61[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]1.45[/td] [td]15.84[/td] [td]22.97[/td] [/tr] [tr] [td]Surplus[/td] [td][/td] [td]374.90[/td] [/tr] [/table] Even if you take out inflation entirely and have a static $/WAR of 8M for the next ten years, he still comes out to like $282M in value. It's just so rare to have a guy that good and young hit free agency. Any GM that maxed out their budget in the last couple of years on a pitcher in their 30s should be pulling their hair out of frustration from putting themselves out of the Heyward sweepstakes.

He replaces Wily as my 20th man.

You are the only hope. I can't computer.

Of course. Baseball is a sophisticated sport. You still see the odd sizeable deviation between FA cost and talent, though. Especially on very big and very small contracts.

That type of talent bumps you up into the Wei-Yin Chen / Jeff Samardzija, 5 year deal territory though.

doesn't even matter though because you're too important in the boxing world to actually take the time to talk trade with anybody

Steamer thinks JA Happ is worth... 2.0 * 8 = 16 1.5 * 8.64 = 12.96 1.0 * 9.33 = 9.33 + = $38.29 million Contextual evidence also offers that he probably has a better than average chance of over-performing his projections.

If only there was like, some type of saber resource where we could access a bunch of newfangled stats that slip through the Fangraphs/BP cracks

The thing about having no good picks is that people can't ask for good picks from you

43 --> 79 waiver upgrade to Silvergun for ARod

Zimmermann's fair 5 year contract under the following assumptions... - $8M $/WAR - 8% inflation in $/WAR - Steamer is correct for 2016 - He declines in the standard fashion 2.8 * 8 = 22.4 2.3 * 8.64 = 19.87 1.8 * 9.33 = 16.79 1.3 * 10.08 = 13.10 0.8 * 10.88 = 8.70 + = $80.86MM Of course, Steamer could be wrong. Adding 0.5 WAR to each year makes the total projected value $104.36M, which is essentially the contract. Also, Steamer could basically be correct but the Tigers are buying wins at a rate that is higher than $8M/WAR. 2.8 * 10 = 28 2.3 * 10.8 = 24.84 1.8 * 11.66 = 20.99 1.3 * 12.59 = 16.37 0.8 * 13.60 = 10.88 + = $101.08

LOL this dude pitched 75 complete games in an 80 game season: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitewi01.shtml

FRIAS and TIPS are now both property of the Toronto Blue Jays

It's hard to ignore the trend that JA Happ has demonstrated. In 2014 he posted the best BB rate and velocity of his career. In 2015 he improved on that BB rate to post another career mark, while adding more K's so that his K-BB% was the best of his career. He also pitched a career high in innings while largely maintaining the velocity gains from 2014, AND he even got better as the season went on. Of course, it all lead to the best overall results of his career. So I don't really see a signing based on a strong 2015, or a few strong months in Pittsburgh. I see one based on a multi-year transition and demonstrated learning + maturation. One thing that has to be noted is that, even though he seems durable, he's certainly not an innings eater. This is a 5 or 6 inning guy, which is fine so long as the manager and GM recognize that. Happ doesn't have a lot of tricks in his bag so even common sense tells you that the times through the order penalty should apply to him with full force. By the 3rd time through the opposing team's order, more often than not, they probably have pretty good timing figured out on his fastball. Aaron Sanchez as a 2 inning power RHP in the bullpen would complement Happ very well. You draw it up as 5 or 6 from Happ, 1 or 2 from Sanchez, then 1 each from Cecil and Osuna.