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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    Lux is one that it is definitely too early to freak out about. He hasn't produced but the sample is still small, the K rate is not through the roof, and the minor league numbers were just soooo convincing.
  2. Laika
    Yeah Adell seems rushed. Angels called him up as a desperation move and now he's already been supplanted by Ward and Walsh. Still, early shades of Brandon Wood AND the teams that guess right early on big busts can extract substantial surplus value from a sinking ship. E.g., the Yankees made an insane profit dumping Montero for Pineda. Robles reminds me of Profar in some ways. A well-rounded game but just... weak!
  3. Laika
    Jo Adell at -1.4 fWAR, 27 wRC+, 41.6% K rate. Projections don't like him much (minor league stats were not convincing for his uber-prospect status). Is anyone buying him in dynasty? What are his odds to bust completely? Similar concerns for Carter Kieboom. Not as drastic there though. It's interesting that a prospect like Ke'bryan Hayes can hit the ground running in comparison to those two after putting up pedestrian MiLB numbers. I think it shows the importance of indicators like K and BB rates and that raw offensive numbers can be misleading. A hyper athletic hitter can hack his way to a great wRC+ in the minors.
  4. Laika
    I 100% agree with that poster from earlier today who said Vlad is visibly thinner. I think he's dropped like 15 lbs since the season started.
  5. Laika
    Hard to say. The FA market has not been friendly to average-ish players like him in the last couple of years.
  6. Laika
    1) I don't really buy the statcast defense reading on Grichuk. Just doesn't pass the sniff test so far. Not sure what is going on there. 2) I'm thinking of JBJ as essentially a platoon player. You could platoon him in CF with Grichuk but if Grichuk is on a heater you could just spell Lourdes and Teoscar against some righties, let them DH or whatever. I don't know how you sell the player on it but a "4th OF" who hits opposite of the three incumbents and is a clear defensive upgrade is going to play a lot. I just looked for a solid LH CF option in the 2021 free agent pile and saw exactly one of them. Trade might have better options.
  7. Laika
    It's too late in 2020 to make any drastic changes but going into 2021, I think a guy like Davis has earned the chance to push Grichuk. If this was 60 games into a 162 game season then yeah, I think Davis should get a crack at regular starts. Ideally someone better than either, though. Jackie Bradley Jr. is an interesting FA target to me. Everything depends on cost but a true CF and a left handed hitter is really the ideal complement to a Gurriel-Grichuk-Teoscar incumbent outfield. Kevin Pillar is a similar player to JBJ and he really struggled to get a job this offseason so maybe there is a chance JBJ won't cost Tanner Roark overpay money.
  8. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Being fat can increase power IF the player can still rotate their body quickly. For most fat players the added weight and size slows down their movement. For the rare fatty that stays quick in the body, the added weight helps! It's all physics. It's not a given that we should want Kirk to lose a single f***ing pound.
  9. Laika
    Well, Grichuk has been playing like a bench player since the start of 2019. Yeah they should bench him. Sad!
  10. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Baseball IQ is not a common scouting report reference and from his K/BB rates and age vs. level it seemed reasonable that he was a baseball savant.
  11. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Vlad CLEARLY needs lots of work at 1B if he's even going to become a decent part time player there. Moving him back to 3rd at this point would be senseless and destructive. An impossible task, designed to make him fail.
  12. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Seems like a defensive disaster waiting to happen. I think you just DH Vlad and Kirk is the starting catcher. I'd rather have whoever at third than Jansen starting all the time. But Tellez coming back isn't a given. He looked pretty hobbled after the injury.
  13. Laika
    It's kind of weird. Small changes to some important indicators, but in both directions. All of these changes are stable by now based on the sample size: K's are down. Line drives up. But ISO is down, and EV is down. Line drives are up at the expense of flyballs. His Barrel rate is worse than his best years. All things considered it just seems like a wash. He's different but of the same quality. It's interesting that Statcast seems to like his defense a lot more than UZR. fWAR might underrate him a bit.
  14. Laika
    Kirk is back in there boys HE'S BACK IN THERE
  15. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Great trade chip, honestly.
  16. Laika
    This is precisely the reaction I am going for, always and forever. Thank you.
  17. Laika
    Did he eat the other 1%?
  18. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    It's okay to have super high expectations about statistical anomaly prospects like Kirk. When JPA was Kirk's age he was just getting drafted. Again, they are incomparable.
  19. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Aaron Cibia was a below average hitter at a few stops up the ladder and never walked. Him and Kirk really have absolutely nothing in common aside from: - Being catchers - Being Blue Jays - Having wieners? (assumptions being made)
  20. Laika
    Randal Grichuk's swing is awful. Very awkward and ugly. The opposite of athletic. It looks stiff, stupid, and over-coached.
  21. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    I don't know how I can even watch a game caught by Danny Jansen ever again.
  22. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    Barrel just means xBA >.500 and xSLG >1.500 Barrel rates takes 50+ PA to stabilize a bit so he's not even 1/3 of the way there. His current barrel rate means nothing. I'm guessing he's had a couple of non-barrels that just missed the xBA or xSLG cutoff. The homer last night was actually a bit of a wall scraper that wouldn't have a great xBA. Other than that, he has crushed a few balls for singles or outs that just didn't have any realistic chance of being extra base hits.
  23. Laika

    NFL Thread

    Laika replied to Dylan's topic in Other Sports

    A poster boy for bannings
  24. Laika
    Reds-Jays world series lol
  25. Laika

    Kirk

    Laika replied to Boxcar's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

    I read like, four different "youngest catcher to do this since..." yesterday. Mauer, Pudge, some guy in 1939...
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