Laika

well a disconnect between the GM and ownership would make a bit more sense than one human party getting cold feet on something like that but if ownership signed him, more or less, and Zaidi killed the deal this way, I mean wouldn't ownership just f***ing fire him right now?

lmao

I mean.... Verdugo + prospect isn't a horrible framework. For Jansen. Verdugo is slightly worse than Jansen and a bit more expensive by projected arb salary. But two years of control. Lefty outfielder. Some promise remaining, I think. I don't think they have anything to offer for Moreno or Kirk haha.

It just means when Toronto submits their claim, they will only be able to claim like $10M less if they trade Ryu right now.

The issue here is that while swapping Grandal for Ryu makes sense for baseball reasons, Ryu's contract is likely insured. So while Toronto's payroll on paper / luxury tax hit would not rise much in the swap, their actual effective payroll would jump. It may be the case that a bad contract swap like that actually sees Rogers paying an additional $10M or so of real money. Depending on how the insurance works. I wonder if the White Sox would talk Crochet. I do kind of like the premise. I like Grandal's chances of being useful on a dead cat bounce in 2023. But yeah, the White Sox don't have a lot of trade juice.

The other owners probably hate Cohen so much, lmao He refuses to be part of the price fixing cartel!

Pre 2022 blurb on that guy: 36. Julian Fernández, SIRP Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (COL) Age 26.1 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 233 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Fastball Changeup Command Sits/Tops 70/70 45/45 20/20 98-101 / 103 You might remember Julian Fernández from the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. He’s still kicking around the upper levels of the minors with rookie eligibility after being passed back and forth by the Giants, Marlins and Rockies amid an unfortunately timed Tommy John and the pandemic. Before 2021, he had last pitched in games in ’17 and while he’s technically been part of those three orgs, he’s only ever actually pitched for the Rockies, finally reaching the big leagues in 2021. Fernández sits 97-101 mph and has a relatively new changeup. He is likely to continue to be very wild, limiting him to an up/down projection.

Okay, but that's a batshit allegation. I don't think Farhan Zaidi got cold feet, man.

No, we are not saying the same thing. You are alleging bad faith.

sign conforto + overpay for Mr Jansen

that seems far fetched more likely they just saw something legitimate on the medicals but kind of borderline. like mild DDD or a lightly frayed UCL.

Wtf

Free agent at the moment

Gotta be close Mayza debuted in 2017. I think Gurriel and Jansen both the next year. If we are talking about being in the org then I guess Romano the 2014 draftee might be the oldest?

facts

Okay but Chapman is better and the same applies Heck even Espinal is a better player and certain to be here I think Gurriel was out WAR-d by Biggio and Berrios!

interesting that Gurriel made his way into this graphic

Addison Barger is a stud, that's why. With prospect projections it's not that the mean projection is "wrong" necessarily it's just that the distribution of possibilities is never displayed. Like if you project Bo Bichette right now to be a 4 WAR player, 65% of all possible outcomes will fall within say 50% of that mean projection. He'd have to benefit from a large skill improvement on defense to get up over 6 wins, and he'd have to suffer a catastrophic injury or something to be below 2 wins. Probably. But Addison Barger's distribution of outcomes will be much more diverse. If the projection system is saying his "full season talent" right now is 3 WAR the part it is not showing you is that his possible outcomes are not clustered around that as tightly as someone under 30 with a bunch of MLB data. So his chances of producing 0 WAR will be orders of magnitude higher than Bo's. And his chances of being worth negative WAR will be like 100x higher. The curves of their projection distributions will not look the same, at all. His curve will be much flatter. Bo will also have better chances of elite seasons. The skew/kurtosis of the projection curves for a true prospect will be insane. It will be all flat, wonky, maybe even bivariate. Bo's should look more like a normal distribution.

He KNOWS he can get at least that much if he has a strong season.

Padres get Matt Carpenter to lengthen the lineup. Makes sense.

Yeah Alek Thomas is in a polarizing statistical position. The prospect models will still like him based on the strength of his MiLB results and his age. And his position if he's a true CF. But the MLB results were gross by every measure other than contact rates, and speed/defense. And a lot of that gross data was "stable" within 2022. So there is major incongruency, and it's coming in a familiar way, by which I mean this is a familiar reason for promising looking minor leaguers to bust. Simply not hitting the ball hard enough. Nick Madrigal being the extreme recent example, but there have been others like Vidal Brujan and Geraldo Perdomo. So how he "projects" is really just a function of how reactive your model is. I am not prepared to just hang my hat on Steamer for a prospect projection like this. It's going to just take some middle ground. To me this is more of an all or nothing proposition. He'll either be a bust or a below average player for the same reasons he stunk in 2022, or there will be some scouting reason that the problematic data will change a bit. Like maybe he's a good enough pure hitter to improve has average exit velocity.

LMAO okay I think the Rangers will end up signing Conforto.

Yeah they need to graduate a couple more average regular (or better) position players in the next year or two. And they really need Tiedemann or Zulueta to pan out and produce. Payroll is getting hefty.

he's a tough one to evaluate for sure my gut says if contreras and benintendi can pull $75M and $87.5M... and Nimmo can get 8 years... 3/$60 would be light

Devers will be incredibly young and surely command a 10 to 13 year contract but I don't want Toronto to give it to him. He has some warts. He's not a good defender at third. He's a bit of a hacker - we have seen him run fairly high K rates in some past seasons and at times even when he is good he is a bit swing happy. The walk rates are good enough but not great by any stretch. So we don't have the "pure slugger" profile and we don't have a profile with defensive value and speed to slowly age away. Some team is going to give him $300M+ and I just don't see why he's worth more than Austin Riley.