Laika

Mitch White has a 3.84 FIP in 148 MLB innings. 1.9 WAR. It’s fine to think he sucks but that’s simply an opinion. Let’s not act like Casey Lawrence is the #6

It could really work. He'd be a bit like Jose Alvarado where the variance would be huge. But he's a mental midget so relief might be better... he has these starts where things just get away from him. In relief the manager could limit the damage better. My plan would be one more chance to start in 2023 - legitimate shot, with 15+ starts. But I would be pulling the plug mid season if he looked as lost as last year and then he'd a be a reliever for the rest of the contract (unless forced back into the rotation).

If Pittsburgh does a stupid and Oaklands away Reynolds the equivalent deal to Chapman/Donaldson would be something like... 45 FV hoglund 3rd ranked = Barger 40 FV smith 10th ranked = Macko 40 FV logue 16th ranked = Juenger 35+ FV snead 26th ranked = Pinto This assumes Toronto is resistant to adding Tiedemann or Barriera and Pitt scoffs at Orelvis as piece #1 but is in love with Barger for whatever f***ing reason lol.

If you want someone recent who might be similar to Kikuchi Vince Velasquez might be the guy. He has had a few seasons where he has been able to miss lots of bats but has gotten shelled (dingers). Anyway, the Kikuchi signing was a nightmare. What an annoying player to have in the fold.

Of course, but his K rate at a SP was still 24.5% so it's the same company. There are a few others on the list who relieved a bit.

The K rate is why he projects to be a positive WAR pitcher The walk rate and HR rates are why he projects to be a below average starting pitcher If he projected to have above average K and BB rates we wouldn't even be having this conversation because he'd be a stud

Kikuchi still only has 466 big league innings. Not a huge sample. And his seasons have been divergent. 2019 he had low K rate, but gave up dongs 2020 he did not give up lots of homers and improved the K rate 2021 he had good K rate, okay walk rate, but gave up homers 2022 he had elite K rate, horrible walk rate, and gave up homers All over the place season to season. His FIPs by year are 5.71, 3.30, 4.61, and 5.62 again all over the place. He has not been "consistently" poo he has been bad in two years (2019 and 2022) but palatable in two others, arguably.

The projections care more about his more granular statistics. His strikeouts and walks, whiff rates, etc. And the projections are probably still not quite ready to think that his HR rate is not unlucky at all. Here are all the 2022 SP who pitched at least 90 innings and had a K% of 25% or more: Strider, Rodon, Ohtani, Javier, Cole, Snell, Greene, Woodruff, Scherzer, Burnes, Cease, McClanahan, Luzardo, Lodolo, Nola, Gausman, Morton, Kershaw, Verlander, Peterson, Severino, Ray, Kikuchi, Castillo, Gallen, Wheeler, Ashby, Cortes, Springs, Gray, McKenzie, Darvish, Giolito, Mahle, Bieber. If Kikuchi is, truly, a pitcher who can consistently strikeout 25% of batters but give up 2 HR per 9 innings pitched... then he's a statistical unicorn. He's the weirdest pitcher ever. He's unlikely to be the weirdest pitcher ever. Something has to give. Here are the pitchers since 2000 who have done that in a sample of 100 IP or more (25%+ K% and 2 HR/9 or more) 2021 Tarik Skubal 2021 Andrew Heaney Skubal was fantastic in 2022 before getting hurt. Heaney was fantastic in 2022. Not saying Kikuchi will be great or anything but it's pretty easy to see why the projection systems think he is better than his 2022.

I know. It's annoying. But we must continue to fight the good fight.

What does "hammered" look like for Mike?

Yeah Eovaldi would be a clear upgrade. Possibly big enough that you could even consider Berrios the #5... If Toronto is going to just forget about being under the luxury tax then he would be great I also wonder if he might want an opt out after 1 season. So it might not be a long term commitment. I dunno.

Did we already run a pick lottery? Someone can do that if it has not been done And set up the draft room or whatever Maybe we do the new player draft in early Feb?

Yeah, the point is not that the team does not need an upgrade on SP5. Everybody would love a clear upgrade on SP5. The point is that most of the names people want to bring in are not even projected upgrades. If you look at ZiPS: Kikuchi, 110.3 IP, 4.49 ERA, 1.0 WAR White, 96.3 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.0 WAR Pearson 65.3 IP, 4.41 ERA, 0.7 WAR Ryu, 3.93 ERA Tiedemann, 4.12 ERA Juenger, 4.25 ERA Zulueta, 5.05 ERA This is not like 2022 where the team went into the year with a big injury risk in the middle of the rotation (Ryu) and a big injury risk in the SP7 slot (Pearson) a performance risk in the SP5 slot (Kikuchi) and big performance risk in the SP6 slot (Stripling). This year you would not characterize anybody in the SP1-SP4 slots as performance or injury risks (you assume negative regression from Manoah and some positive from Berrios but mostly just accept that Berrios is an SP4 now). The ostensible durability of the top 4 makes it a bit easier to be comfortable with everyone else filling in that final slot. The depth chart + projections seem to say that Kikuchi and White should be "fine" and there is plenty of upside on the way in the second half with Ryu, Tiedemann, and Zulu. Also wild cards in Pearson and Juenger. White and Kikuchi also have some upside on their own. And look at the projected performances of the possible free agents: Kluber, 1.7 WAR, 4.45 ERA in 156 innings Wacha, 1.5 WAR, 4.43 ERA in 153 innings Miley, 1.1 WAR, 4.38 ERA Greinke, 1.0 WAR, 4.55 ERA Cueto, 0.8 WAR, 4.68 ERA these are not park adjusted ERAs for Rogers Centre Is it really worth $11M or so to bring in Kluber? For a minimal projected upgrade? I would take him of course, but it seems inefficient. And guys like Greinke and Cueto just seem like lateral moves with zero upside at all. I think the best thing for SP depth in 2023 would be another nearly MLB ready SP prospect. Like one of those Arizona arms as part of a catcher trade, to slide in along Tiedemann as an upside play. I just don't see the point in some boring old SP5 for this rotation. And I'm sure the Blue Jays FO looks at a lot of those potential additions and thinks something similar - "but this guy isn't even a projected upgrade on Kikuchi or White..."

Austin Hedges got $5M this offseason. career .189/.247/.331 hitter

You’re overthinking things and have probably been fooled by randomness. Just look at their basic K and BB numbers. Their FIPs.

literally just projections it's not that complicated it's not just wish casting

yeah he's sitting pretty I dunno, I think there is a decent chance this is the real estate market bottom unless we go sideways for 3/4 years and there is a nuke in ~2026 as cheap+big mortgages people got during COVID expire and they have to renew at much higher interest rates while their properties aren't even worth as much. That is a bit of a perfect storm for a real estate liquidation cascade.

yeah maybe i am thinking they just go sideways for a year or two though we had a sharp correction this fall. the top did blow off.

As just DFA'd Zach Logue Bring him back

what if interest rates go to 10%? there is no right answer here, the market is so f***ed and unpredictable

The funny thing is that Correa is probably underpaid, severely on a year to year basis. A $26.25 AAV is pretty light for a player of his quality.

When did you buy? Seems like it was a buyer's market, maybe?

You see this type of s*** all the time on real estate deals. Honest buyer has a condition on home inspection. They can kill the deal if they don't like the inspection. They do the inspection and there is something just a bit odd. Like, inspector says there is a chance of asbestos but someone would need to cut into the drywall and have the insulation tested. The buyers ask for a two week extension of the deadline of their condition. And the right to test the insulation. The sellers say no. They don't want to open a can of worms or miss the market. They turn around and sell with no conditions to someone else, for a bit less $$.

That's just in between #2 and #1, same kind of unlikely s***

Yeah. The general scenarios are: 1) The Giants (collectively - GM and owner in agreement) decided to sign him then got cold feet and used the medical clause as an excuse (bad faith exit) 2) The Giants have internal disagreement. GM decided to sign him but owner disagreed and made the team exit for medical reasons 3) The Giants wanted him but there is a legitimate concern on the medicals and they weren't willing to waive the medical clause. Rather than engage in further inspections etc. Correa and Boras decided to take the Mets deal. #3 is by far the likeliest. #1 is a huge stretch. They aren't just going to change their mind #2 is at least plausible because we have seen teams before that have internal disagreement between GM and owner. But still unlikely I think.