Laika

They said he will only play closer to the end of spring. Not hurt, they just don't think he needs a full spring.

lol!

Padres have some massive future payroll commitments now, wow

It's political. He's doing what he can, within the system, to signal disagreement with the pay schedule and precedents. Acceptance of a tiny relative concession from the team is tacit acknowledgement that tiny concessions are good enough. Manoah is saying no, f*** this s*** completely.

I don't think it takes long to adjust Even just seeing the highlight of the braves red sox conclusion today is going to make a lot of hitters change their routine

The pace of play with the pitch clock is f***ing amazing I don't really care whether you can see the clock or not. I think the players should mostly be used to it by the regular season.

Linus Ullmark scored How rare is that compared to say perfect games?

He's not complaining at all about Toronto

Maybe not but 3B is really thin these days

It's a lot for Springer, but it depends on league depth. Baty gets a lot of prospect love too and he has solid enough projections

I am sad now

Kikuchi got tons of whiffs but probably got bailed out of two walks by overaggressive Pirates

Kikuchi vs Oneil Cruz First pitch 120 mph homer?

Smart. Give them less games where they hit well and more games where they blow.

looks good to me.

Yeah. That can be wonky data though on the MiLB side, I think. Also, not sure how quickly IFFB stabilizes. FB and GB rates are mostly stable within a couple of months but LD% can take over a year (600+ MLB PA). To get a sense of scale: If you look at every AA hitter with 250+ PA since 2010, there are 3279 qualified seasons. Orelvis is 3265th in BABIP among them. He is 2405th in IFFB% So... hard to blame the 99.6th percentile BABIP season on the 73.3rd percentile IFFB rate. I think. His flyball rate of 51% is 3194th or 97.4th percentile

His power is insane. Watch the HR at the start of this video. It's like a Vlad laser.

Oh he definitely needs to make improvements. But maybe they can be incremental improvements like most prospects make and not wholesale profile changes. Like if he is hitting 48% flyballs instead of 51% flyballs, and improving his swing decisions on sliders just a bit, maybe that's enough.

Gets dominated by breaking balls. There are some full PA videos from 2022 on youtube. Lots of whiffs on benders, even from LHP.

Let's flip the search around. AA and 20 years or younger, but sort by wRC+ ascending. Again, since 2010. First thing I notice - none of the players who were below average by wRC+ had an ISO anywhere close to Orelvis'. Anthony Rizzo had a .217 ISO and a 118 wRC+ in 2010 but nobody else below Rizzo even had a .180 wRC+. So Orelvis' power is incomparable to this pool of young prospects who struggled in AA. Most of the names who had below average wRC+ on this list ended up as solid MLB players or are still too young to write off. But most of them are very differently kinds of players... slappy infielders. Guys like Nick Castellanos, Jonathan Schoop, and Jose Ramirez! are there. Since 2010 there have been 71 players aged 20 or under get 250+ PA in AA in a single season. Orelvis' ranks: BB% 34th K% 67th AVG 71st BABIP 71st wRC+ 55th ISO 10th FB% 3rd LD% 58th It's just so bizarre to see a BABIP that low from a player who can hit the ball so hard. The flyballs are to blame for some of it but I just think a good chunk was bad luck and he could've hit .230 or .240 with no change in skill and just some better ball luck. The one strictly negative example I see is Hudson Potts, who at 24 is probably not going to figure it out. He was similar to Orelvis in a lot of ways, back in 2019. Again, the game power is not really comparable though (Orelvis was near .300 ISOs in prior seasons, Potts was just over .200 in his best MiLB years).

Sano also had zero defensive value most years (DH quality) and was a horrible baserunner. If Martinez can play an average third base and run the bases competently he doesn't even need to hit as much.

That turns the K rate filter from a positive to a negative, which wasn't where my head was. I was kind of thinking "jeez, to be 20 in AA and not strikeout 30% of the time is actually sort of decent in this year of our lord 2022 when the MLB average K rate is like 24%" But, interestingly enough it barely matters. If we just remove the K% filter entirely the only player that gets added to the sample is Joey Gallo, who hit .232/.334/.524 in 2014 with a 39.5% K rate and 12.4% walk rate. I've seen Gallo as a comp for Orelvis before. Like, a less extreme version of Gallo. Gallo hit as poorly as Orelvis did this year, in Joey's age 21 season in AAA

Like, people look at Martinez' 2022 slashline and think "man, this guy can't hit" I don't think it's necessarily that bad. The flyballs might be a bigger issue than the strikeouts. And a minor change in swing plane to bring that launch angle down just a tiiiiiiiny bit might be easier than fixing a literal hole and the swing, and it might be enough to turn a .203/.286/.446 hitter in AA into one who hits say .253/.336/.500

It's just a model. There are always weird players on the ZiPS top 100 rankings. The factors that it would love on Orelvis: - 20 year old in AA - shortstop - .242 ISO is amazing - 8.1% walk rate is not bad - 28.5% strikeout rate is bad but not horrendous the slashline (AVG/OBP... and wRC+) might not even be an input maybe the model has flaws. probably it does. but also... maybe everyone has overcorrected on Orelvis. It may be instructive to find historical comparisons who were: in AA at 20 or younger, had walk rates over 7% and K rates under 30%, had 250+ PA, and an ISO over .200. Here is everybody since 2010: 1 2013 Miguel Sanó MIN AA 20 276 13.0% 29.3% 0.44 .236 .344 .571 .915 .335 4.8 .265 -0.1 47 14.8 .397 145 3 2022 Francisco Álvarez NYM AA 20 296 12.2% 24.0% 0.51 .277 .368 .553 .922 .277 1.3 .310 -0.5 54 17.1 .394 146 4 2017 Rafael Devers BOS AA 20 320 9.7% 17.2% 0.56 .300 .369 .575 .944 .275 3.7 .316 -1.2 58 20.4 .408 155 5 2018 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR AA 19 266 7.9% 10.2% 0.78 .402 .449 .671 1.120 .269 3.6 .402 -0.7 64 32.7 .481 203 6 2012 Oscar Taveras STL AA 20 531 7.9% 10.5% 0.75 .321 .380 .572 .953 .252 6.3 .323 1.3 99 36.6 .411 159 7 2017 Kyle Tucker HOU AA 20 318 6.9% 20.1% 0.34 .265 .325 .512 .837 .247 4.5 .286 -0.2 47 10.6 .368 129 8 2022 Jhonkensy Noel CLE AA 20 278 10.8% 22.7% 0.48 .242 .338 .488 .826 .246 5.3 .271 0.0 43 8.1 .360 123 9 2013 Domingo Santana HOU AA 20 476 9.7% 29.2% 0.33 .252 .345 .498 .842 .245 5.4 .316 0.3 74 20.2 .372 137 10 2022 Orelvis Martinez TOR AA 20 492 8.1% 28.5% 0.29 .203 .286 .446 .732 .242 3.1 .217 -0.7 60 -2.2 .319 96 11 2019 Dylan Carlson STL AA 20 483 10.8% 20.3% 0.53 .281 .364 .518 .882 .237 7.1 .315 0.5 81 24.3 .387 142 12 2022 Ezequiel Tovar COL AA 20 295 8.5% 21.7% 0.39 .318 .386 .545 .932 .227 6.8 .378 1.5 57 19.6 .405 153 13 2021 Riley Greene DET AA 20 373 11.0% 27.3% 0.40 .298 .381 .525 .905 .227 7.4 .386 1.7 68 21.1 .391 145 15 2018 Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP AA 19 394 8.4% 27.7% 0.30 .286 .355 .507 .862 .221 7.7 .370 1.0 64 16.0 .379 133 16 2016 Cody Bellinger LAD AA 20 465 12.7% 20.2% 0.63 .263 .359 .484 .843 .221 3.9 .287 0.8 73 21.4 .375 142 17 2014 Dilson Herrera NYM AA 20 278 10.4% 18.7% 0.56 .340 .406 .560 .967 .220 6.5 .389 0.0 54 21.4 .424 166 18 2011 Mike Trout LAA AA 19 412 10.9% 18.4% 0.59 .326 .414 .544 .958 .218 8.7 .390 1.8 82 29.5 .421 156 19 2010 Anthony Rizzo BOS AA 20 467 9.6% 21.4% 0.45 .263 .334 .481 .815 .217 4.0 .297 0.9 67 10.4 .358 118 20 2012 Jon Singleton HOU AA 20 555 15.9% 23.6% 0.67 .284 .396 .497 .893 .213 5.2 .350 0.2 97 31.6 .396 148 21 2022 Jordan Walker STL AA 20 536 10.8% 21.6% 0.50 .306 .388 .510 .898 .204 6.7 .365 0.9 98 21.5 .396 128 I mean... you can see why the model likes him of course his wRC+ is the worst on this list and his K rate is one of the worst

yeah but for PL but they went partial subscription. they only show you top 10 and blurbs for top 5 i stopped looking at BP a few years ago. not sure if it's any good anymore