The poker analogy is attractive but I dunno. I agree that there were some similarities between the Stroman and Moreno trades. It does seem like the league just saw his position from a mile away in both instances.
On the other hand, he shot from the hip with the Teoscar deal and that was good value in hindsight.
And in 2022 offseason everybody knew Toronto needed a 3B and they still ended up getting Matt Chapman for a song.
Dumped Panik and Groshans on Kim Ng in separate trades for useful relievers, when the whole league would have known Toronto was desperate for RP.
Stole Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards from Milwaukee in the same context.
Made good trades for Ray, Taijuan Walker, and Matz.
The Stripling trade worked out but Ryan Noda does seem like he was a piece worth keeping...
The White-Frasso trade doesn't look great.
I think on balance when you look at his complete trade record, there is much more good than bad. But a good chunk of the good trades are with bad orgs or GMs. Which I guess does support the characterization of him as a middle tier GM.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/transactions/toronto-blue-jays/trade/