Laika

Nah

No, we spit them out as projections because they are projections Reasonable disagreements with projections are allowed, depending on the logic

League average power, plus speed, plus defense I wouldn't normally advocate trading someone with "four years of control" for a rental but having seen Manoah pitch last year and having assessed his attitude and girth and the way his general stupid face looks, I have made this choice

Ha-Seong Kim is coming off back to back 5+ bWAR seasons, 4 fWAR seasons, and fills an immediate need on the infield. That's not some wild dump of Manoah for a jobber with no upside. Toronto probably has, at this point, some offseason insight into what Manoah is doing and how his still is looking or developing in the lab so they have more information than us to inform a trade, anyway. If his s*** looks to be recovering, then keep him. If it looks as flat as 2023, then there isn't much reasonable hope of upside is there? Sometimes the right move is to dump a loser. A s*** stock that has lost 80% of its value can always lose another 80% of its value.

I cried

Not sure teams look so much at WAR when it comes to elite closers It becomes more about leveraged value and possible playoff impact

Well, at least it will be a good DH + this Cuban wildcard rather than just a DH

But Kim doesn't take any playing time from Schneider IMO, as DS is a 2B/LF. Kim slides in at 3B and is the upgrade on IKF. IKF bumps Espinal into absolute trade bait and maybe turns him into a B prospect or something.

Isn't that good? If he differs from average in one plane of movement, there is potential?

Welp. At least Orelvis is back in there.

Some basic research. It seems very hard to sit 96+ and have a stuff+ below 90 on a 4 seamer (there is basically nobody) but once you get closer to 95 with the sitting velo it is possible Examples: Brent Honeywell, 95 mph, 71 stuff+ Charlie Morton, 95 mph, 74 stuff+ Chris Martin, 95.9 mph, 90 stuff+ Johan Oviedo, 95.8 mph, 83 stuff+ Logan Gilbert, 95.8 mph, 88 stuff+ Sam Hentges, 95.7 mph, 77 stuff+ Jon Gray, 95.7 mph, 82 stuff+ Just a big difference between sitting 96.5 and 95.5. So, some 96 mph fastballs on WBC video is meaningless. A stuff+ rating of 75 is completely possible if he sits 95 or so with really bad shape. In the 96+ average mph bucket, there is basically nobody sub 90 stuff+ and only a few guys below 100. The twitter reference from the secondary source with a 100 "stuff" rating is not the same measurement, it is some wStuff metric I have never heard of. I kind of trust Eno's stray tweet more tbh. Looking to see this guy working on cutters and power sinkers in spring.

Alek Manoah can be replaced for a couple million bucks in free agency, haha His projections = Rich Hill and Noah Syndergaard Of course you trade him for Kim

Lol imagine bidding on Adam Duvall

It's possible that Eno has bad data? It certainly doesn't look that bad. Yeah I'm actually going to assume the data was flawed. Misreads or something. TOR isn't giving 4/32 to someone with a fastball that isn't at least close to average

Yes eno tweeted that it was horrible someone tried to comp him to Justin Steele and eno said something like "difference between 90 stuff+ and sub 75"

Guys like Adam Ottavino have been effective relievers with... below average fastball by stuff+ but really good benders. It's a relatively common archetype. From watching this Cuban pitch I am pretty confident he can be an effective RP unless he is a complete idiot like Esmil Rogers or something. I don't think Erik Swanson has a great stuff+ fastball. Anthony Bass doesn't, I think he threw a sinker more in his good years. Just need to get his 4S up to a 90+ stuff+ grade or find an average-ish sinker.

higher than I would have expected on a few here

ZiPS always has low numbers on the top teams. 88 for ZiPS and 93 for Steamer or FGDC would make sense to me. Based on what I remember.

That's fine but I think the roster last year also projected for like 95+ wins so it probably was, at the start of 2023, objectively better than the current team as of today What is going on here with a lot of you (I know this is condescending) is you are conflating results with talent, they just aren't always congruent in sports. The 2024 roster could project for a few less wins than the 2023 one did but still reasonably end up winning more games than the 2024 roster. And most of that is because the 2023 team was like, historically unlucky on offense. You can't look at a team 8th in wOBA but 14th in runs scored and assume they deserved to be 14th in runs scored, that is bonkers. 2022 and 2021 they were top 4 in both categories (wOBA and runs). The comparison to the 2023 roster should use preseason projected wins, tbh. If they projected for 95 wins and you think they are 3 wins worse, then you would expect this team to win 92.

Not really There are "common sense" reasons for the projections Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Jansen, Schneider, Varsho, Biggio, Espinal, IKF are mostly presumptive starters and in their 20s. Most of them SHOULD bounce back or be better based on extremely basic principles like their age, how much contact they make, and how hard they hit the baseball. You can go through the team and point out a couple of geezers here and there, or the age of the pitching staff, but I really don't care when 7/9 presumptive starters are still in their 20s. Common sense says the offense can really only get better vs 2023. And if you want to think very linear, in terms of players lost and added while ignoring projections, it doesn't even look bad considering it's Jan 18: Nobody of consequence was lost on the pitching side as Hicks was a hired gun anyway and Ryu was a non-contributor. CHAPMAN out - replaced his defense at least with IKF and guess what Davis Schneider has a better projected wRC+ than Matt Chapman (not shocking) KK out - replaced by a genetic replica of KK, you would swear it is the same dude BELT out - okay but it's January 18th and the FA list is still crowded with DH options MERRIFIELD out - who really cares? we all watched him the last couple years. IN --> this Cuban arm and whatever he represents, could be a massive upgrade on the SP5 spot for all we know The thrust of this is that I don't think you can even find a reasonable argument that the team will be worse than 2023 and there are plenty of reason to think it can and should be just as good or a better.

The Jays are something like: Top 5 SP Top 10 RP Top 10 offense Top 5 defense Top 5 in resources Middle of the pack current farm system. Say 15th to 20th.

Some of this is just so pessimistic I kind of worry about your mental health. Are you depressed? The Jays project for 90 wins, fifth by Steamer in baseball, 2nd in the division. For them to win 80 games multiple members of the team might have to literally die Their projected offense is actually good, believe it or not. Not elite but comfortably above average. You essentially have the worst possible opinion of the organization in every conceivable way. Nothing is as bad as you think. Cheer up!!!

Having seen Jordan Hicks extensively I really have no confidence that he can be a SP Rodriguez probably has a better chance to throw 120 effective innings

haha yeah it kind of does doesn't it Rodriguez does have a turbo sinker thing and a changeup, they might be decent

Eno Sarris @enosarris Yariel Rodriguez had a plus slider (128 Stuff+) in the WBC, but that model didn't like the fastball much. Was dominant once Chunichi moved him to the bullpen, I think that's where his home will be.