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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    The worst case Ontario might be a 7+ year Adames or Bregman contract like looks bad from day 1. One of those on the books isn't going to ruin the franchise. There is really nobody else on the market who could reasonably be the benefactor of a sandbag deal. Of course Soto could (or will, eventually be a sandbag deal) but that would be an extreme sudden decline in talent for it to happen any time soon. Burnes could sign a $200M contract then blow his elbow up but I don't think Toronto will be pursuing him anyway. Everyone else will just get mid-term deals. 2 year deals for Profar and Walker, maybe 3 for Kikuchi, Teoscar/Santander/O'Neill might be able to get 4... and the AAV might be low enough on some of those that it doesn't even matter if the player pulls a Nick Catellanos and is s***** the entire time.
  2. Laika
    The Blue Jays fudge their revenue numbers intentionally though Like, sell the TV rights to themselves (Rogers) for way below market rate
  3. Laika
    The long term (5-6 year) outlook for any MLB team can turn around quickly, especially if that team develops some elite controllable talent, BUT consider the following... In 2017 when the Blue Jays sucked, Vlad and Bo were dominating in A ball and A+ ball. They were so f***ing good that they were both top 20 consensus MLB prospects. And as position players, possible franchise players, a couple of years away you could already dream on the next window of contention. And that window of contention came to fruition (Ross blew it of course). In 2024, the Blue Jays sucked and there is NOBODY COMING MAN THERE IS f***ING NOBODY ON THE WAY This team is Fukudome'd for a while. Pray for a 2025 WC berth because that could be the only fun for half a decade. Like, the only way out of this is if the new Vlad-Bo are already in the system. Arjun Nimmala 5 WAR SS in two years? Trey Yesavage an Ace from day 1?
  4. Laika
    why do you have to wonder that? they are the same age, Vientos is good and Baty f***ing sucks and isn't even on the team of course he is trade bait
  5. Laika
    The Twins are a better organization because they can make baseball players They have actual, tangible developmental strategies that work and several years to prove it They were out front of certain pitching trends (high fastballs, sweepers) and hitting trends (pulled fly balls) and they do smart things like cash the novelty player Luis Arraez for the sneaky Ace Pablo Lopez, and trade Jose Berrios at the perfect time (Simeon Woods Richardson outperformed him this year lol). They also have a fully functional player development system, just look at their bullpen and really their entire roster. You are right that the margins are thin though. As has been stated already in this thread. The Twins don't spend enough money. The Jays can overcome a lot of mediocrity by just spending $230M+ annually
  6. Laika
    critical error of not seeing the forest for the trees if the difference between you and the Angels is Spencer Horwitz, or 6 Bowden Francis starts, then guess what - there is no significant difference between you and the Angels!
  7. Laika
    okay spencer
  8. Laika
    Yeah it's pretty tight from 3 to 24 to be honest Tighter than some would think The Nationals are assembling a really good young core after a long rebuild and have the potential to skyrocket The Reds have a nice core and some developmental chops, they just need more resources The Phillies competitive window might be closing soon. Long in the tooth. The Padres have been on the brink of looking like a has-been but they went on a run this year and connorp got a little AJP chub because of it but who knows if it lasts. The Red Sox have spiraled between big market behemoth and inept front office periods The Rays will never again be more than a WC team
  9. Laika
    You could argue that Toronto's developmental record has been the worst in baseball in recent years The last good player Toronto graduate was who... Kirk? A 2021 rookie who has been a 2-4 WAR player? Not even really an impact player just an above average guy. Him or Manoah are the only candidates. Bowden Francis I guess as well if you want to be generous. And the AAAA bats like Horwitz if you want to still be generous. The Angels have 2023 rookie Logan O'Hoppe, sneaky star Zach Neto also a 2023 rookie, and 2024 breakthrough arm Jose Soriano who looks like an actual SP but I suppose is in the "prove it" boat with Bowden Francis. But Neto is the best player mentioned by me so far, by MILES and miles. He's a rock solid franchise shortstop. The Rockies have also developed an impact SS in Tovar. They also have an impact CF in Doyle. And a potential impact bounce back guy in Nolan Jones. And a closer who throws 100 in Vodnik, plus the sneaky good SP Ryan Feltner.
  10. Laika
    imagine the smell
  11. Laika
    Resources matter a lot. The Jays are probably mediocre rather than terrible in a general front office sense. Like yeah, they have been completely inept at developing impact talent and pitching BUT they are smart enough to avoid bad contracts and they seem okay at other aspects of roster construction and so forth. So I just don't see any argument for a team like Pittsburgh above Toronto. Complete org rankings: 1. Dodgers 2. Yankees 3. Braves 4. Orioles 5. Padres 6. Phillies 7. Mets 8. Brewers 9. Red Sox 10. Twins 11. Rays 12. Guardians 13. Astros 14. Diamondbacks 15. Giants 16. Tigers 17. Cubs 18. Rangers 19. Blue Jays 20. Royals 21. Cardinals 22. Nationals 23. Mariners 24. Reds 25. Pirates 26. Marlins 27. Athletics 28. Angels 29. White Sox 30. Rockies But yes, Toronto has no argument for being top 10 or even top 15. Best you can say is they are in the "15-24 tier" or something like that. All of those teams are pretty fluid and have certain strengths and weaknesses. Similar to other teams with resources and brain injuries like the Cubs and Giants.
  12. Laika
    The state of the french fries is not bottom 5 bad but it's definitely not top 15 good either Resources: 8/10 Prospects: 2/10 2025 chances: 6/10 2025 to 2028 chances: 3/10 Front office talent: 5/10 Fanbase/support: 6/10
  13. Laika
    Spanky They have no good prospects Barely any good young MLB players who will be around for a long time They just won like 65 games It's grim
  14. Laika
    Spring training is the low hanging fruit. Just f***ing make it shorter. I like the long, grueling NHL playoffs.
  15. Laika
    Even that is dumb In the divisional series the higher seed should just get 4 or 5 home games tbh so they actually have an advantage based on doing better in the regular season 5 games all at the home park of the higher seed. One off day after g3. Or, 1 game at the home park of the lower seed then 4 straight games of the higher seed at home. If I was in charge, the DS would look like that ^. 1 home game for the shittier team them 4 straight for the better team. And the WC round, the higher seed would only need to win 1 game to move on while the shittier team needs to win 2 in a row.
  16. Laika
    But you wouldn't expect Soto to walk more hitting in front of Judge Who wants to walk someone in front of Judge? You would expect Soto to get more pitches to hit hard
  17. Laika
    why is fWAR wrong about Vlad's defense? he is a minus defender by all of OAA, UZR, and DRS. the numbers are however much worse under OAA. but fWAR uses UZR still, I think. it has only been dinging him for like -2 to -4 runs per year recently. not a big deal at all. there is not a big delta in 1B UZR either. the best only get like +4 runs. what is fWAR missing that is going to add so much to every year of Vlad's career? what is the specific gripe here?
  18. Laika
    Yeah but they don't do the whole "flirting with replacement level" part very often, or ever. Vlad - times under 2 WAR (including 2020 where he projected to be under 2 WAR in a full season) = three Acuna - one (2024, major injury) Tatis - none Devers - three (the Vlad contract comp!) Freeman - two (ages 21 and 22) Seager - one (2018, major injury) Yordan - one (2020, major injury) Harper - one (2014, injury) So from that last it's really only Devers and Freeman who are remotely comparable. Vlad has some sad lows that most of these guys never have. Talking about being healthy and sucking.
  19. Laika
    that's wild
  20. Laika
    that's what happens I guess when a guy goes from a 2 WAR player to a 6 WAR player, seemingly overnight Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a personality disorder 2019 - replacement level 2020 - replacement level 2021 - superstar 2022 - slightly above average 2023 - below average 2024 march - replacement level 1B 2024 May onwards - superstar
  21. Laika
    Hyun-Jim Ryu - $80M Kevin Gausman - $110M George Springer - $150M It is time for a $190M contract! Willy Adames, come on down
  22. Laika
    Yeah Kirk is good and deserves to be a starting C at this point Maybe this is the winter he loses 30 lbs lol
  23. Laika
    Ah yes The glorious Price Enforcement Pennant
  24. Laika
    The Blue Jays are getting used again! lol
  25. Laika
    All very plausible other than "confirmed by Soto" that one needs to be more ambiguous. maybe he changes his profile picture on instagram to a blue square amidst all the hype (then signs w the Cubs)
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