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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    Well, that would be the exact question that the sabermetric evidence examines. I guess the high K%, high HR% players are just more often neutralized by higher level pitchers. Something like that. Like, these elite SP are giving up like 0.5 homers per nine innings. Elite relievers, even less (some of them go all season with giving up one or no homers). Over a big enough sample, yes the homers will happen and they have big impact but in a short series the ability to put the ball in play and get lucky can help tip the odds in your favour. A little bit. Just a little bit, probably.
  2. Laika
    hmmm Eflin vs Lugo The O's are f***ed aren't they
  3. Laika
    There is evidence that contact matters a bit more in the playoffs than the regular season. Sabermetric evidence. I don't have it, but I have heard of it. It's also common sense. Pitching quality is way higher, runs are lower in games that matter when elite SP are on the bump, so a lot of times the game is decided on putting the ball in play or slapping a single.
  4. Laika
    Hunter Brown was extremely good after the first month or so I will be a bit sad if Kikuchi never gets to throw a playoff pitch this year
  5. Laika
    So if Guillermo is gone and Mattingly is no longer the offensive coordinator, unless there is a new hire, I guess they are turning the hitting over to Hague and Mense? I actually like that if so. They had too many cooks in the kitchen before and now they are letting the younger minds run it. Hopefully that's what they do. Or, if they do bring in a new hitting coach hopefully it's someone progressive.
  6. Laika
    omg this f***ing loser
  7. Laika
    over already?
  8. Laika
    Not a good offseason to need an infielder, lmao Paul DeJong or Kevin Newman are the #2 FA options at all of 2B/3B/SS based on 2024 fWAR Gleyber Torres might get $80M after a dogshit season. Kind of just Benintendi his way into to much $$.
  9. Laika
    Chapman and Yimi are probably my favourite one year RP targets Yimi didn't have the TJS right, just shut down with elbow inflammation and a setback? Also, Paul Sewald... hmmm there are actually A LOT of mid 30s or late 30s relievers so it's a good offseason to rebuild a pen, stop-gap pen. lots of guys should end up signing reasonable 1 year deals.
  10. Laika
    The Fangraphs 2025 Free Agent Tracker is finally up Can't believe Jurickson Profar is going to be such a high profile FA lmao I wonder how much he actually gets
  11. Laika
    Really no choice though The team needs higher end RP and he's the bird in hand Not like they can bank on doing any better for that money in FA I mean, maybe
  12. Laika
    He had a 5.13 FIP this year, 4.74 xFIP, 4.31 xERA, 4.58 SIERA terrible K-BB ratio by every measure other than ERA he was a replacement level arm or worse
  13. Laika
    Probably two reasons 1. Vlad camp thinks he is better than his projected WAR 2. Jays camp has (at times) not wanted to give him a 10+ year deal on his "projected WAR" because of demonstrated volatility* *see, it's not ALL about projected WAR, you also care about risk profile and decay rates and aging and other stuff that is harder to figure out for a specific player than how much WAR he should provide next year. on the other side of this coin you can include possible growth or upside in here too, but that's so hard to model I would guess. Like, Zack Wheeler got 25% better after signing with the Phillies - was there any hint at that being a possibility?
  14. Laika
    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.157): $29.6MM Erik Swanson (5.059): $3.2MM Jordan Romano (5.051): $7.75MM Genesis Cabrera (5.011): $2.5MM Dillon Tate (4.144): $1.9MM Daulton Varsho (4.128): $7.7MM Alejandro Kirk (4.047): $4.1MM Alek Manoah (3.063): $2.4MM Zach Pop (2.171): $1MM Ernie Clement (2.168): $1.7MM cut the bolded Swanson the only tough call I think but he was really good for the last few weeks and the team needs actual human relievers so keep
  15. Laika
    Yeah the proof will be in the numbers The problem with guys like jaysblue is that most of the time they just don't even have an actual opinion. "he will try to get Soto money" isn't really a worthwhile opinion on the matter "he will get close to Soto money if a team is desperate" is too contingent everyone can just say what they think both players will get and one day we will see who is smart and who is not Soto will get something like 13*41 Vlad will get more like 11*31
  16. Laika
    His stuff+ (while still above average) fell off a cliff in 2023 and his xFIP was s*** in 2023 as well, he was probably lucky on flyballs that year
  17. Laika
    Well, Soto is a comparable in many ways It's just that the relationship between talent and contract value isn't exactly linear
  18. Laika
    Most of this doesn't actually matter though 5-6 years in the league, you are who you are WAR is all that really matters. And broad comparables based on age, position, body type and so forth. Devers ticks most of the boxes as a comp. Vlad has the edge in: max power, contact ability Devers has the edge in: positional utility, batted ball tendencies
  19. Laika
    Yeah on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being Devers and 10 being Soto Vlad is a 1 He's not worth more than Devers for any objective reason He might get more than Devers just because of big contract inflation, or his agent doing a better job, or the Blue Jays bending over or some combination of those things
  20. Laika
    1.4 WAR in year one then 15 WAR over the next 3 years
  21. Laika
    depends on the joke
  22. Laika
    You just KNOW - we all KNOW - that no matter what Vlad extends for, he is going to post a 60% GB rate and 1.4 WAR in year one of the deal.
  23. Laika
    I don't think MLB front offices will have trouble identifying the gap between those two players
  24. Laika
    Jordan should pitch better if he wants to feel good
  25. Laika
    If Shapiro, Atkins, Schneider, and Mattingly and Walker all stay and they just fire lower level staff... it's such a LAME look. Like, the front office still has all these Executives and Directors who at this point are maybe returning? You would assume they would be because if the heads or secondary heads were getting chopped off they would have started there. Tony Lacava: Senior Vice President, Player Personnel Andrew Tinnish: Vice President, International Scouting & Baseball Operations James Click: Vice President, Baseball Strategy Joe Sheehan: Assistant General Manager Michael Murov: Assistant General Manager Sanjay Choudhury: Director, Baseball Research Jeremy Reesor: Director, Baseball Operations Jeff Ware's title was "Assistant Pitching Coach - Bullpen" Gil Kim is about as significant as the bullpen catcher.
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