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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    I am going to be sick
  2. Laika
    I am going to be sick
  3. Laika
    I just can't really see how they fix this. I go through the list of free agents and they all seem like no-chance signings or players that I don't even like. I just don't see how they spend $50M AAV and improve the roster enough, unless they hit on multiple low cost signings and pillow contracts. Maybe that will be the play. Maybe they won't go after the big guys but they will try to sign 5 bounceback candidates: Buehler, Bieber, Scherzer, Sewald, Goldschmidt, Gleyber, Conforto. Guys like that. I mean how else are they plugging all the holes for $50M other than trying to get lucky multiple times?
  4. Laika
    Chad Green putting together a weird year Stuff+ says he is back to 2022 form, ERA agrees But his whiff rate has not returned so his FIP/xFIP are replacement level
  5. Laika
    it's pretty gross ideally they bring in 2 big bats that can just be full time starters at a couple of those positions. push some of the young players to bench roles and not platoon roles. LF is the biggest concern for me. After LF, I think they could add at 3B and/or DH. A bit of flexibility on where to add. Sort of depends on how the incumbent pieces fit best as well. I feel like they are solid at 2B for example. rest of season projections by positional depth chart on Fangraphs LF - 0.3 WAR (rank 27) 3B - 0.6 WAR (rank 22) DH - 0.3 WAR (rank 21) 2B - 0.7 WAR (rank 15) SS - rank 19 (includes 118 PA from Bo, though) C - rank 11 RF - rank 11 CF - rank 6 1B - rank 3
  6. Laika
    I hope you all like platoons because the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays could get weird with it. CF - Varsho - might be lightly platooned depending on performance, but his defense will keep him in there most of the time. Clase the backup. C - Kirk - won't be platooned but will split time with some other C LF - Loperfido/Schneider/Clase 2B - Wagner/Schneider/Horwitz DH - Horwitz/Schneider 3B - Clement/Barger
  7. Laika
    How many of McMahon's homers or Coors created though? He's like a 15 hr dude on most other teams
  8. Laika
    Jays should claim Nick Robertson Make him throw 70% sliders
  9. Laika
    Good stuff but bad command He'd be #2 in stuff in the current pen, behind Green
  10. Laika
    It won't work forever We saw Kikuchi make a bunch of different tweaks with Toronto. He always ends up losing his command for stretches and gets hammered. Last year the CH was his worst pitch.
  11. Laika
    Burger isn't a third baseman -23.7 UZR/150 Might as well just put Vlad there and sign a cheap 1B
  12. Laika
    Only cheaper in absolute dollars Much more to expensive in present value dollars and in AAV (payroll)
  13. Laika
    It's more about the lost offense
  14. Laika
    Yes and then he walked two and got pulled The Full Kikuchi
  15. Laika
    Kikuchi dominating wow
  16. Laika
    Also, Vlad is not a superstar. That's exactly the point of confusion. Vlad camp thinks he is a superstar. Casuals think he is a superstar. Nobody "inside baseball" is going to want to pay him as a superstar.
  17. Laika
    There is a kid with Pittsburgh, Axiel Plaz, who is 18 and has a very similar line this year in the FSL. Other than that over the last few years the most similar line is probably Orelvis Martinez. He had more hits, higher AVG, but he was also a full year older.
  18. Laika
    .375 ISO since he got promoted back to A ball
  19. Laika
    Very rare? I don't know if I would use those words. I would guess that the incumbent team is actually the most likely landing spot, historically. We saw some of the bigger FA do it last offseason, Bellinger and Nola. Along with multiple second tier guys. Year prior, Nimmo, Judge, Edwin Diaz, Correa. But yeah if you want to say that his chances of returning to Toronto once he has hit FA are drastically lower, that's certainly true. He would go from like 33% chance to extend to 8% chance to come back. Or whatever.
  20. Laika
    They might end up letting him explore free agency and then retain him. It will be painful at times for some Jays fans and many words and tears will be spilled, but free agency could be a sobering experience for the Vlad camp. He might go there and not get offered more than $160M from any other team. I mean if he is a beast for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025 he will get more money, but if he is up and down at all between now and then there is a distinct chance that no desperate team will exist that is willing to pay him anything close to $200M, in the post Eric Hosmer contract era. The post Chris Davis era. But even is he does go beast mode why would any team give a player of his profile $30M or ten years? Wild stuff. I think it would be more like $27M AAV for eight years.
  21. Laika
    they don't actually move players around during the season
  22. Laika
    Yes it would A pure DH is -17.5 over a full season for the positional adjustment but zero in the fielding runs column since they don't play defense. A full time 1B is -12.5 in the positional adjustment column over a full season but then plus or minus their fielding runs Once a 1B is worse than -5 on defensive talent, they should just be a DH However, I don't think it will have a significant impact on how people think of Vlad as a player and how much he is worth, because I don't see him becoming a primary DH in the near term. It would have some effect on the public perception of the latter half of his career though, of course.
  23. Laika
    imagine if rostering Dan Vogelbach is what puts them over the line
  24. Laika
    And Horwitz has more than doubled his ZiPS projection. Varsho is 1 win higher, somehow. Springer's rebound has him somehow higher now. It probably all evens out. More or less.
  25. Laika
    probably not a big diff what DS is saying I think is that it doesn't make sense for DH to be -17.5 and 1B to be -12.5, because those adjustments were decided upon before the DH performance penalty was known. I bet he thinks it would make more sense to just have them both be -12.5. We should correct for the now known DH performance penalty that players evidently suffer. In that case, Vlad has played 155 games at DH in his career so you can essentially just add 5 runs to his career value. Or, 0.5 WAR.
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