Laika

It's tool syndrome. People don't know how to properly weigh the significance of tools, they see an 80 or a 70 on a guy's speed tool and all of a sudden he's getting ranked highly because he has a true "impact" tool. Obviously everyone understands that hit and hit/power are probably more important than speed, but I think when it comes to guys with plus-plus speed, people let the hypothetical upside blind them too much against the probable downside. I'd probably rather have a guy with a 50 hit tool and a 40 run, as opposed to a guy with a 40 hit tool and a 70 run (all else being roughly equal). That .400 mark could very well be true talent. Minor league BABIP isn't the same as major league. If a guy can run or square up a baseball, then they'll probably BABIP .350+. If a guy can do both, then they'll probably push .400+ as a true minor league talent level. Look at what Trout's were.

I suggest we keep it on the table, but we go butts-out and avoid the swordfight.

ok guy. super smart intuitive point you just made there. I'm saying that his market value would *probably* be too high. As in, he would *likely maybe probably* cost more than he's worth.

Define "hug". I get ornery when I'm hornery.

Wild guess (not projection) would be that he'll trend towards being a zero run defender during his current deal. It could show up in the numbers as soon as next year, or it could never show up, even if his true talent goes there. Or it could never happen. Or he could turn into a defensive pylon in one offseason. It happens. Or he could already be a zero defender and we just don't know about it because his 2013 was lucky and because of UZR = true talent lag. I wouldn't project his defense to do anything in particular aside from probably not get better; probably get worse.

I don't "know" anything. Apologies for not qualifying every f***ing sentence with a probably, a maybe, or a likely. I do my best to be a non-absolutist, I swear.

Well, no, it's mostly about the fact that he's 33 and any sane person would stop projecting him as a +10 run defender.

The guy said "unbelievable". He's been very good, but he certainly hasn't been generational or anything and he probably wouldn't project to be much more than average going forward, considering his age.

Not sure if this is a joke or not. a) you can't have him terrible idea anyway. He's a massively overrated prospect that would cost twoonies on the dollar.

Probably. It's also Rasmus + Gose as insurance + Goins. And the Jays would have a few more millions in the 2014 budget to throw at some middle infield scuzzbutt like Kelly Johnson.

That's nox's number. I don't really know what it is but it might be close to that with the concurrent/impending contract inflation. I don't think Phillips produces 12 wins in the next 4 years though. Maybe you get 8 out of him. I think 12 would be on the very high end of any sensible projections. If he is indeed in decline, as it looked this year, then you'd get about 2.1+1.6+1.1+0.6. That's only 5.4 widgets, so even at 9M per weiner, he's a non-asset. Mind you, he could possibly still fluke put up 5.4 in a single season. Analyzing contracts like this is all very hand-wavy. Lots of broad strokes and ballpark projections that make projected values almost useful for any specific player. But if you're a baseball ops guy in a FO, I think all that you can do is try to land on the favourable side of things on every investment, and even though you'll probably look wrong on a lot of the specifics, in general you probably end up in the green.

No, no, and no.

"SO LONG SARTORI: Friday was Jay Sartori’s final day as Blue Jays assistant general manager before leaving for California to join Apple as manager of the App Store’s sports and entertainment category. Sartori had been with the team since September 2010, handling contracts, arbitration and collective bargaining related matters, among other tasks." Oh, you mean the only things that Toronto has consistently handled well? Greeeat....

49 million for the age 33-36 seasons of a previously overrated middle infielder who just posted a measly 2.6 fWAR in a fully healthy season. Phillips is a 'meh' player and a negligible asset, with an inflated ego. So the Jays, of course, will probably target him and pay way too much.

That would be a tough one. Phillips is probably a little bit of a safer play, but considering ages here, there's a chance that Phillips is done as an above average 2B while Rasmus is just getting started as a consistent above average CF. I could go either way on it. I think I would lean towards keeping Colby, maybe just because of a "devil you know" type of thing. Also, Phillips is a douche and I like Colby.

Really, Brett Anderson can't be worth very much right now. Just one more year of control and he's literally never held up for a full season. But I don't really see the depth in Oakland for them to let him go for cheap. Parker Gray Straily Anderson Griffin Milone Colon is a FA and they probably won't retain him.

"To No49: 96 pick in waiver draft 111 MILB draft To BTS: 33 in waiver draft" My MiLB 6th rounder would be available in a similar fashion to this if anyone wants a "free" pick for next summer's Rule 4.

I agree. He's obviously a first division 2B, but he doesn't really seem like a fantasy monster anymore. His last 2 fantasy years were solid but mostly because of his position, make him an OF and he's probably more of an ~80 O-Rank type of player (like an Alex Gordon). Pretty fair deal. Could swing wildly depending on how those prospects develop. Carlos Martinez could get bullpen'd in STL and turn into nothing but a Holds guy, or he could be given a real chance to start and turn into a high K #2 type, or whatever.

I like sammy's end. Good buy low on a surprisingly young Assdribble + Gray is already doing neat-o stuff in the big leagues + Colby is gravy. Can hardly believe that Desmond is actually the older SS.

I like Sickels' info and descriptions a lot more than I tend to like his grades and rankings.

Oh, I totally agree. Unfortunately, with this front office, what they could/should do and what they can/will do are completely different subjects.

I'm not even saying that they should try to "win" a trade with Texas. I just think that a fair trade with the Rangers could hold good value for Toronto.

I really think that one of the best and most creative / efficient ways to "fix" the team in the short term is to deal Bautista. The Rangers are a perfect fit. No, they aren't going to give up Profar for him. But the Jays would be able to ask for Kinsler +, and that plus would come from a fairly deep farm system. Bautista was born in Oct/1980 and he's under contract for two more years at an AAV of 14M + a team option at the same amount. Kinsler was born in June/1982 and he's under contract for four more yeats at an AAV of 15.5M + a team option at 12M (with a 5M buyout that I've included in the 4 year AAV). Bautista is objectively better. In the last 2 years he's produced 7.2 fWAR in just 927 PA. That's a WAR/150 of 5.14. The year before (2011) he was worth 7.7 wins in 655 PA. Kinsler in the last 2 years has put up just 5.5 total fWAR in 1345 PA. That's a WAR/150 of just 2.82. But the year before (2011), he was worth a lofty 7.3 wins, and he has a couple of nearly 5 win years on his resume before that. So the upside is there. Bautista has been better, but that's why the Blue Jays can justifiably ask for a fair chunk more than just Kinsler. Bautista is also 2 years older and *might* be breaking down a bit, so whether he'll be much better going forward is up for debate. Kinsler has been fairly healthy in the last few years after looking like he might be a somewhat injury prone guy a few seasons ago. He also has 2 more years of control at a not unreasonable rate, which would extend some of the contractual control that Toronto currently has on its core players. It's a lot easier to plug a corner OF hole in free agency than it is to plug a middle infield hole. It's not all about straight wins, sometimes it's about peer relative wins. A 4 win player might be a better option than a 6 win player, if the 4 win guy plays a position where almost all free agent options are more or less replacement level. You can trade your 6 for the 4 + a legit arm/prospect or whatever, then go sign a 2 in free agency to fill the hole you made by dealing the 6, and come out on top. Last 3 years Kinsler has been the #4 2B in baseball, with 12.8 wins. Last 3 years Bautista has been the #7 OF in baseball, with 15 wins. Bautista also kind of seems like a selfish whiny suckface who might have a bad or weird clubhouse influence (not that I would place any value in conjecture like this). What if they could land, like, Kinsler and Matt Harrison? or Kinsler and Feliz? or Kinsler, Ogando, and Luke Jackson? Or anything in that vein.

Gut/rebuild wouldn't make very much sense given how, uh, in deep the team is already. Doesn't make sense to get in up to your neck and then decide the water's too cold. There are smart and efficient way to trade key pieces for what is needed, trade minor league assets for what's needed, and sign free agents to fill some holes. It won't be easy and I have almost no confidence in the FO's ability to put it all together, but it's not impossible.

Money is a thing