Laika

The Santander deal has a NPV of like $68M. In an off-season where guys like Max Fried and Willy Adames are getting $200M guaranteed... Just give Boss Atkins his flowers.

The non-Vlad logic for the Mets to walk away from Peter is that they probably think Vientos is a 1B and they don't want to completely clog up 1B and DH. Most teams like to use DH as a flex position these days. Maybe they let Pete Alonso walk then sign Bregman.

3/$42M Almost exactly what MLBTR and Fangraphs predicted

I don't really think they are comparable purchases Like, Alonso is a hired gun, short term, one dimensional player Vlad would be a 10+ year commitment and just so much more than Alonso both as a hitter and as a marketing asset

Hector edging hard here Edge King

And we all know that in any given season Vlad could literally hit 50+ homers I don't think anyone would be shocked if he turned into a 180 wRC+ guy. Aaron Judge career path. Why not? It could happen. You pay for the upside, sort of.

Alonso + Profar + Scherzer Trade Wags and Clement for some controllable Ace RPs Vlad is the 3B. Pete 1B. DH rotates.

It would not be his ideal role since he has enough pitches to be a SP Avila is basically a poor man's Y Rod

So tough to make the Hall as a catcher. Martin compares well to Molina and McCann by most measures. I think too many voters just think of his framing runs as a bit artificial, though. And maybe they have a point. He was good at pitch framing when the measurement of it was new, so there were still a lot of guys catching at the time who were just dogshit and would never catch a major league game these days. The way they calculate the stats compares him to his peers. So, is it fair to just give Martin like, +20 runs in a given year as a pitch framer when he is being compared directly to Ryan Doumit? I don't know the answer I just know that some people for these reasons see his framing runs as a bit artificial, or almost as an artifact of side-effect of when he played and the statistical developments he played through.

Stuff+ doesn't love Avila but he would be a good long-man for anybody. Has five distinct pitches including two different fastballs. I think I would prefer him on the roster over someone like Nance or Pop, since he could cover innings or even be a 3 inning opener. Some pseudo SP depth like Richards provided. He could also perhaps be better by just being even more of a junkballer. His CH and SL have okay Stuff+ grades, it's the fastballs that are the real issue.

The Kirk effect

I mean you just posted a tweet about Tim Anderson signing a minor league deal with the Angels, what exactly do you want people to talk about?

I love this contract, it's a masterpiece by Boss Atkins. What if he becomes a crummy player? No big deal, NPV of $14M AAV is peanuts. What if he is really good and opts out in three years? Avenue one - great! Thanks for the service Tony. What is he is really good and opts out in three years? Avenue two - void his opt out by exercising the team option and thereby capture the upside on the remaining contract! This solves the normal issue with player options. What if the team tanks in 2025 and AS is here for five years? Well, at least it's front-loaded so the effect on actual payroll in 2028/2029 is minimal.

Hey now. Not fair. They signed Caleb Thielbar and Matthew Boyd!

Yeah the Dodgers' top 6 SP are all glass cannons. Odds are 1 or 2 do not even break camp in the rotation. In the minors, they have Miller, Knack, Frasso, Wrobleski, and Casparius on the 40... the latter 3 are probably all RP anyway. Jays would have nothing to offer them at the MLB level so if there was any kind of deal it's probably like the Stripling and Mitchy White trades? Prospect for crusty MLB arm. I would consider May to be pretty crusty at this point - he only has one year of control left, shockingly. Tony Gonsolin also crusty.

HUGE leg up I would say Deploy the heavy deferrals!!!!

What is Bregman's market at this point? Mariners? Yankees? Tigers?

Yes and it illustrates why guys like JDM, Justin Turner, Rizzo, Grichuk, Hays, Canha, Pham, Verdugo, maybe Ha-Seong Kim / Profar even make little to no sense since they just don't even upgrade a roster spot in any obvious way. Alonso/Bregman or nothing.

A decent chunk of these fringe bats and depth bats project as solid contributors. Wonder if it's all a mirage. NAME PROJ. PA PROJ. WAR PROJ. WAR/600 PA Projection system Leo Jimenez 77 0.3 2.34 FGDC Davis Schneider 217 0.4 1.11 FGDC Ernie Clement 343 1.4 2.45 FGDC Will Wagner 336 1.2 2.14 FGDC Orelvis Martinez 210 0.5 1.43 FGDC Addison Barger 196 0.6 1.84 FGDC Joey Loperfido 331 -0.1 -0.18 ATC Jonatan Clase 113 0.1 0.53 ATC Alan Roden 123 0.5 2.44 ATC Josh Kasevich 85 wRC+, not bad Steamer

Even if Roden follows the Spencer Horwitz arc it will be nice. Just hit enough to turn into a trade chip. Should have dealt Schneider after his debut year. Should be aggressively selling any of these tweener prospects that have good showings...

Safe to say at this point that if AA had stayed and been allowed to rebuild, the Jays would be in a much better position today. I mean just compare the ATL drafts in recent years to the TOR drafts. The 2021 hit on Schwellenbach blows Toronto out of the water in the same year. The 2020 hit on Strider blows Toronto out of the water in the same year. 2019: Langeliers, Harris, Grissom to Toronto's Manoah. 2022, AA has some promising guys like Nacho, Drake Baldwin, JR Ritchie and Atkins has I guess Kasevich and Roden? It's just AA doing AA things and finding a star in almost every draft. Ho hum.

Holy fudge! Heavy deferrals baby!!! I guess the draft pick value makes it closer to 5/$80M

The Alonso will be easy to sign

Toronto doesn't really need to spend money to upgrade the probability of reaching their mean projected outcome at a position. Better use of HSK money is to spend it on some other position that more directly upgrades the roster. Mean projection upgrade at said position. I don't see why Ernie Clement would drop off from 2024 though. He didn't get lucky or do anything that he shouldn't be able to repeat. And the sample was decent enough at 450 PA. HSK is also coming off major shoulder surgery so I don't agree about the risk profile being better.

A lot of that is just playing time projection. Clement - 1.5 wins in 358 PA HSK - 2.6 in 508 PA Equalize the PA and Clement gets 2.13 WAR in 508 PA