Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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At least you finally took down your old avatar of you wielding your 9 with your nose covered in a mysterious white substance. I ventured upstairs a while back to ask mother what that substance could be. I did not like what she implied you might be into.
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Good to see nothing gets by you.
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Jose looks pretty great but what the f*** to I know lol. Nowhere near enough information to have him as a true talent plus 3 sd fielder though.
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Sounds like a defensive scouting report. AKA, no mention of the most important attribute. Which is probably wise because you can't possibly deduce it on your own (and neither can a set of "trained" eyes). You'd just fall victim to attribute substitution and project based on something loosely related.
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Defensive scouting reports in the minors are next to useless due to the complete inability to scout range. You're literally better off regressing to the mean 100% than using any defensive scouting reports.
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I think it's basically a tossup between Simmons and Ryan. I'm pretty suspicious of some stringer bias in Simmons' DRS numbers (lol @ +38 at SS). Remember when scouts told us that Pastornicky was a better fielder than Simmons? Lawl.
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He has not shown and has certainly not proven that he can play plus defense.
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I have to admit the Yan Gomes thing is pretty funny. Just adds to the spectacular failure that is the JPA era.
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Blue Jays to institute new health/injury program/position?
Nox replied to G-Snarls's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Knowing this org, they'll toss $45K a year at some guy with a BA from a s***** JC in western Ohio and get him to run some bottom of the barrel "research". But don't worry, said hire will have made the s***** baseball team at the s***** JC, making 37 career relief appearances as a loogy topping out at 79 while carrying with him a real good feel for the game. #IBYNEPB -
It honestly doesn't look real how quickly he popped up from that slide.
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I see the e-callout/rl-meetup request seems to be growing in popularity. I'm sure NJH can borrow his neighbor's moose and ride down to the designated throwdown area (Yonge/Bloor).
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lol
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Meme from the past. I approve.
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Lawrie, Reyes, Bautista, JPA all basically performed exactly to expectations this year when on the field. Edwin and Colby performed at a level higher than expected. Dickey, Johnson underpeformed. Morrow got hurt. Buerhle has done Buerhle type things. The back end of the rotation/depth was always s*****. The Jays were a 85 to 88 win team coming into the year based on whatever projection system you wanted. The error bars on those projections is like +- 8 wins. Finishing below .500 is not really that crazy at all. Stoeten only understands numbers enough to be dangerous. This is a pretty good example of that. Oh wait, he can't even be dangerous. He's just a blogger with 2000 twitter followers and has no influence.
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tl;dr, Ryan.
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Please have this available in your clipboard the next time a mouth breather insists everyone here thinks BB = 1B
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You're not taking assumptions out though. If anything you're adding them (defensive performance remains constant throughout time and across teams, ER are a better indicator of pitcher talent than RA for a couple of quick ones). FIP simply shows results too (BB, K, HR). Just because the result is scaled to ERA doesn't change that fact.
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Because I'm lazy and had wiki open, here's a good quote: "Occam's razor is used to adjudicate between theories that have already passed "theoretical scrutiny" tests, and which are equally well-supported by the evidence" Dino stats are not equally well-supported by evidence.
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While I appreciate an interest in tinkering with models and the attempt to create something useful, I would discourage you from the current path you're on. Why are hits, BB, HBP and ER all equal value? Why would you ever multiple the resulting sum by BABIP? Also, as soon as you do that, the contextual /9 innings you attempted to created before gets obfuscated entirely and becomes a useless multiplicative factor. What, in English, is the result? Why do we want to know this specific result? You should really go read the SIERA discussions (comment sections on posts) on the Book blog. The FIP ones too.
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That's not really how it seems when you say things like "FIP isn't based on real things". It seems like you're out to completely discredit analytics instead of providing thoughtful counterpoints.
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Nobody is suggesting using any numerical metric in an insufficient sample size. Conversely though, there is a required sample size for any scouting based evaluation too. If you went by a scout's first look on a player, you'd do worse than a random number generator.
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But they do use the information. They use it in the smartest way possible, which was determined empirically to ignore it.
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"So why wouldn't you take that into account" Because they're hugely variable. Nobody argues that DIPS theory is effective because pitchers actually have 0 control over batted balls, itt's just that teasing out that effect is exceptionally difficult. It's been shown that ignoring the effect completely gets us far closer to the truth (underlying pitcher talent) than run and ball in play metrics. It's not perfect, it's better. There's also way less than what you're implying. Tell me this: why do position players who come into pitch have a cumulative BABIP against that is essentially in line with the league average produced by full time pitchers?
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Because there's alot more than goes into run and hit prevention than what the pitcher brings to the table.
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The error bars are definitely bigger. But when talking about a guy with significant AAA PAs, they're worth using. One significantly anecdotal case that I remember, before Trout was called up to the big leagues ZIPs predicted he would lead the league in runs scored last year (obviously not the best measure of individual talent).