Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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Updated ZIPS/Steamer ROS projections that fangraphs uses.
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There are no game by game projections published. I just meant that if you disregard projected playing time (for some reason), even their performance per game is expected to be around the same. I'd put the defensive gap closer to 1.5 wins, but that's splitting hairs at this point.
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That's just not true though. Projection systems are basically a true talent estimator. Steamer has Escobar's true talent at 1.3 WAR/50 games compared to Reyes' 1.3 WAR/46 games. That's a very similar estimation of their respective talent levels. Obviously Reyes is a superior offensive player. That's not debatable. But just as obvious is Escobar's advantage in the field. He's a sublime defender at SS while Reyes' ability to convert outs has shown to be lacking throughout his career. If I had to choose one of these guys for one game, I'd take Reyes. But it's not as clear cut as you're making it out to be.
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Of course playing time is projected. Why would it not be? Zips projects Escobar to play 52 games ROS, Reyes 42. Steamer has it at Escobar: 50, 46. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me at all. Even if you look at it on a per game basis, they're not projected to provide dissimilar value.
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Zips has Reyes about half a win better over a full season. Steamer has them equivalent. Chone likes Escobar better. They're not in different tiers talent wise at all.
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By calling me that, you just stooped to the level of Sempai and Greenwood. I hope you're happy.
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FYI - I just voted for Hurl for the sole purpose of spiting you.
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Then you pretty much want them to avoid all pitchers. Which isn't an entirely invalid idea. Too bad we just drafted 10 straight of them.
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I think you'd be disappointed to know how few things in this world are wrapped up into a nice little deterministic packages.
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That was implied Norman.
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A) That's not true You never try to assemble a team that is specifically built for the playoffs. You build a roster to maximize your chances of making the playoffs. Once you're there, it's little more than glorified coin flipping.
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We signed Cordero because of his ERA and savez so why would we not make another decision based of flawed information?
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Good god. Look up linear weights. A single is more valuable than a walk. Nobody is debating that. However, it's a complete failure in logic to interpret that as meaning walks are not "important".
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It is a useless topic. Saying walks and OBP are less important than batting average is a empirically falsifiable statement. It has been. Years ago. There is literally no intelligent conversation left here. Olerud has now posted. Can this please be locked.
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Is said video posted somewhere?
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I read somewhere the other day that the average distance on his homeruns in Coors is ~460 ft. That's just silly (I'm too lazy to look them all up on hittracker to verify)
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Colorado or Boston should probably trade for Stanton. He's probably a true talent 40+ HR guy if he played in either place.
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This board was built on the backs of Darrells.
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And then what? Your thinking lines up with a bad GM? Congratulations, I guess.
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So I guess they're just making it up as they go along now.
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Indeed. Beeston needs to go too.
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I would like to point out that the most popular baseball subtopic at Sloan this year was how to properly maximize the utility of the 25th spot on your active roster. Smart teams don't simply write this off and give it to some grey beard that has a few good stories to tell the boys.
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The point is minor things like this and signing Jeff f***ing Mathis to 2 year extension are symptomatic of the far larger issue (our front office's inability to think). If they can't make good small decisions, why would we expect them to do any better with the larger ones? Absolutely. A small bit sure, but lets not pretend 1 projected win is a small thing in a season in which you were trying to contend. You clearly don't know how replacement level is determined.
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He doesn't project to going forward. That's really all that matters, ever. (Whatever your method of projection may be)
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Yes you did. You said you didn't care if our bench players were replacement level. How does that not mean you don't give a s*** about the bench? Who would replace him? Oh just about anyone can be better than a projected -0.5 win player over the course of the season. How about Mike Aviles? I mean, he wasn't even an external option at one point. Don't do any of the following: 1) Use OPS 2) Quote a 82 at bat sample 3) Quote ABs instead of PAs 4) Quote unregressed platoon splits It's clearly led you astray this time and I can only imagine it will again in the future. So?