Nox

I'm assuming that you're talking about the Marlins deal. If that's true, this statement is completely erroneous.

That might be useful if Twitter didn't exist.

/raysjays/a few others Can explain to me what this thing adds to this board? Obviously the mods have decided that he's worth keeping around and I would love to hear the rationale behind that.

JBJ - True talent 82 wRC+ Gose - True talent 81 wRC+ Additionally, JBJ projected to save 3 times as many runs on defense as Gose. You're really, really bad at this.

Meh, the article is ok. Certainly better than all the "LOL Alex Gordon is not the best player in baseball, WAR is broken" types we've seen over the past week. But when he says things like: "What WAR is trying to tell you, though, is that Alex Gordon is having a great season", I'm not sure he actually understands WAR either. WAR isn't telling you Alex Gordon is having a good season. WAR is telling you that the measurements that have been assigned to Alex Gordon thus far would indicate an elite player IF we take those measurements to be accurate measures of true talent. A few months of UZR and a number of offensive numbers aren't really that. It's not an instance where he truly just embarrasses himself. I mean, up until MGL shamed him publicly for the 10th or so time, he didn't really understand how to regress platoon splits properly. That lack of knowledge is obviously fine for the average poster here (who might read the Valencia threads here from last month and pick something up) but for the lead writer for what's turned into the top analytics site, it's pretty awful.

Except that now and the future we don't expect him to be very good. That's what the money goes towards, not past performance.

I'm guessing Albert is pretty happy being Pujols.

"“We wanted some of that (pregame) work to see if it had a chance to play out here,” Farrell said Monday. “(We) felt like right now it was an opportunity to take advantage of the remaining three weeks left in the minor league season, hopefully to gain some confidence and some momentum when he comes back here. That’s the reason for now.” So, basically exactly what I said. You are so deficient.

Can it. A run saved = a run scored. I'm sure this is a pure player development play. IE, they think it might be worth having Bradley go down for a month and have some success hitting the ball. If they were in contention I doubt they would have made this move as Bradley in his current form (offensive deficiencies and all) is a useful major league piece.

Oliver sure but preferably something better. Zips/Steamer publicly, something proprietary for teams (incorporating scouting data, hitfx data etc). As for how this all applies to this thread: We're saying that retrospective 1 yr defensive metrics are only loose measures of past defensive ability. Nobody disagrees with that. So when we use that sketchy output as an input to the WAR framework, we should hardly be surprised the resultant numbers look weird. It's more an issue of the way we measure D being imperfect (it's a hard problem, scouts are demonstrably no better at it) than WAR being broken.

WAR itself isn't predictive but other models are. Said models output a set of events that you can then use the WAR framework on to value them properly. (measured past events + random variation) -> WAR -> noisy, confusing stuff (projected event set based on our best estimation of a player's true talent) -> WAR -> Something more useful

I'm talking about what happened too. Measured past events are talent + some degree of random variation. WAR(talent + random variation) is pretty stupid as putting a value on a large chunk of randomness is retarded. I don't care what your MVP criteria is. I'm just saying that WAR used retrospectively is a misapplication of it.

An almost identical amount of time as any offensive rate stat that involves a ball in play (ie not one of the "3 true outcomes", not that I like that term).

Well, he's not. This all goes back the point that using WAR retrospectively is pretty dumb. We're applying the WAR valuation framework to a past set of events that are a combination of skill and random variation. It makes much more sense to apply the framework to a set of expected events driven by a player's true talent (ie luck teased out of the equation the best that we can do). If you do that right now, Trout is a much better player than Gordon/anyone.

Is Jansen reliable? I mean, I guess he's as reliable as the average 88 mph muffin tosser but I certainly don't want that anywhere near high leverage.

Sounds right. Can't remember the 3rd either. Certainly not going back to the old cesspool to figure it out either.

Lol, we see this very differently. What I think the market would bear: 2/$18M What I would offer: 1/$2M, which obviously would not retain him. So, in other words, there's no chance I bring Jansen back.

Well, you did want to trade him for Matt Kemp at one point... I'm just needling you.

Not too surprised. It was always pretty clear that the higher ups at Rogers don't really know what makes a good baseball ops department. It's ok though, his replacement needs another year or two of grooming anyways from a PR standpoint.

3.9% according to FanGraphs playoff odds. Hurl offering ~12-1 or implied 8.3% Stay away people!

No it does not. Jesus.

Um, nobody is doing that.

Jacob Turner gets DFA'd. He's not great by any means but that still surprises me.

Who would have thought that he might not have been a 20% HR/FB guy going forward?

Kevin Ware has definitely played since. But, I don't think we should underestimate the severity of this type of injury either. Just because there were no known complications at the time of surgery doesn't mean there won't be as the bones start to heal themselves. Tyrone Prothro had the same injury and he has trouble walking 10 years and 10 surgeries later.