Nox

Trading for relievers rarely works out for the simple reason we have very little idea who is going to be a good reliever in 2 years. Hard to imagine a trade for Holland that I would like.

The weird thing is that the people responding to him seem to actually be calling it "Tango" as if they don't get he's making fun of the silliness that is hockey analytics naming conventions. And agreed re: what you said in the other post. Some of these guys have no idea how to actually test their "models". They press "go" on their regression, see a correlation and start quoting that as gospel. Hopefully Tango fixes War-on-ice's path to WAR series of posts too. They're exceptionally smart guys but they're aiming to create something that is pretty different than what Tango et al created in baseball.

+1,000,000 This is my biggest pet peeve by far about the hockey analytics blogosphere right now. Past "advanced" stats = true talent = future performance in way too many of these guys' eyes. Agreed on the player tracking stuff. That will obviously be awesome.

The gist is that Corsi is being miss-used by many bloggers out there (true) and that some of the "rebuttals" from the last two days were embarrassing. Running some regressions in Excel without having any idea what they were testing. The baseball analogy would be that since OPS and wOBA are highly correlated to each other therefore they are the same thing and there's little use for wOBA.

Tango s***ing on hockey analytics the last couple of days. Needed to be done. Alot of muddled thinking out there right now by Excel jockey bloggers. http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/comments/corsi-v-tango-when-a-correlation-of-r.98-means-nothing

Good to see your powers are still at full strength. Out of 10, how easy will this championship be?

"This is an upgrade."

Have you worked for Apple? Do you know people who have worked there? It's not all sunshine and candy scented mock turtlenecks. A low level manager there is at best a lateral career move to an AGM role in baseball.

Wow. That is pretty awesome.

Didn't say that. Last person who I've heard say this is buried somewhere up by Blue Mountain.

"AA needs to balance the money vs trade thing." We must never forget the money vs trade thing.

A couple of things: 1) You're absolutely correct in saying that scouting is of utmost importance in highschool as the numbers are almost useless. This however diminishes rapidly as you move up the levels of pro ball. 2) "Sabermetrics" does not mean solely look at recorded event outcomes from games. Rather it means tying those outcomes together with scouting reports in a way that makes the most sense. A way that you've tested. A way that you can tease out actual predictive power. You wouldn't alienate the people you think are useless because you would fire them on day 1 (or as soon as possible) or not hire them in the first place. Consciously retaining employees who you deem to be useless makes zero sense for anybody. I also think the false dichotomy being constructed here is pretty stupid. Just because you value/understand/leverage analytics does not mean that you cannot build proper business relationships. Silicon Valley wouldn't be a thing if smart technical guys were incapable of doing smart business things. Half of Wall Street is on the Asperger's spectrum and they spin deals just fine.

I broke down, went over there and this is the type of leading edge analysis I found in the first thread that I opened: From resident ******** spankster01 (Not Spanky) "I am starting to get on board with this momentum of moves. I really am but I have to issues with this.1. If AA keeps this momentum up all the way up to resigning Cabrera and landing a top rotation pitcher and moving either Dickey or Buehrlee or Happ, I a completely on board. I am concerned that AA will stop short as he has done before. 2. AA needs to balance the money vs trade thing. We don't need a completely gutted farm. 3. I think with these acquisitions I like to think that second base will be ok with Goins and Izturis. Let Pompey have CF. Start stacking up on pitching." .....

That would require somebody going to the old board. I think Smokey's the only one who's been brave enough to risk the potential interaction with DJBlueJays and Sempai.

Well sort of (knowing to keep a sustainable budget deserves some organizaitonal kudos). The bigger point was that judging a baseball exec by non-actions is pretty impossible with the information publicly available. For example, how do we know that AA actually offered Jiminez a slightly better deal but he turned it down because he preferred to live in Baltimore (lol)?

No. Because by that logic 28 other GMs get that same credit.

Did you read the thread? Delete your account.

I thought BEEST was the partially self-aware super AI that caused Nick Bolstrom to write his book about terrifying s***. At least that's what resident outsider Shi led us all to believe.

The "billion dollar business with many moving parts etc etc" card is valid enough but: A) Someone with AA's CV (Bach Econ = nothing, mail room, no quant skills, no playing experience) is not qualified to running that organization either Robust talent valuation -> better decisions -> more wins -> taking less crap from the various sources you referred to

Mostly for relievers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

Hurl - I've seen you kill a man with your bare hands over a debate regarding Bobby Hurley's douchiness. I cannot vouch for the statement you make.

If upper management was involved in 2012 because of the magnitude of the deals, then we surely expect that they would be when trading Canadian Casual Panty Wetter Brett Lawrie. So if you're opinion is that management is meddlesome, then they should remain meddlesome as time goes on. You have nowhere near enough information to figure out exactly when they are f***ing around with things and when they're not. Either that's their tendency and you form opinions off that (fine) or you remain agnostic. Anything more fine-grained is just spinning narrative.

Couldn't we then assume that these recent moves were also because his hand is being forced by upper management? Does upper management deserve credit here if they get blame there? There's actually much more evidence now that things have been partially steered from up top than there was in 2012. Regardless, it's all speculation. And for that reason, I think given the information you have to work with I would remain agnostic on upper management's degree of meddling.

You'd be lucky if that's all you catch off Twitter.

Here's a comprehensive list of people in this world who thought Yan Gomes would evolve into a top 50 asset in baseball: {} Here's a comprehensive list of people in this world who thought Yan Gomes was a starting catcher: {Yan Gomes' Mother} In other words, of all the things you can criticize AA for, this hardly seems like the one to single out. If you think this was actually a more egregious transaction than either the Marlins or Mets deals, I can only suggest to you that you need to re-evaluate some things when it comes to the way you think about asset valuation.