Nox
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Everything posted by Nox
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Nah man. That's just the Rob Ford zone. http://science.howstuffworks.com/alcohol5.htm "Stupor (BAC = 0.25 to 0.4 percent)They can barely move at all. They can barely move at all. They cannot respond to stimuli. They cannot stand or walk. They may vomit. They may lapse in and out of consciousness. Coma (BAC = 0.35 to 0.50 percent) They are unconscious. Their reflexes are depressed (i.e. their pupils do not respond appropriately to changes in light). They feel cool (lower-than-normal body temperature). Their breathing is slower and more shallow. Their heart rate may slow. They may die. Death (BAC more than 0.50 percent) - The person usually stops breathing and dies."
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Too late. http://moogy.com/ Unless that's the beginning of what you had in mind.
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Nope. Just that if you choose to be arrogant you should at least have a little something to back it up with. He, being the prototype failed hipster, falls more than a bit short of that.
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Yea, sorry. That vitriol really should be directed at Stoeten who I admit I have a bias against. Shouldn't have spilled over to you. My apologies.
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Oh that's totally it. For sure. Definitely. I don't think I can be friends with someone who doesn't find that more than a little obnoxious. It's not like this guy is anybody. Here's a blog with a similar moniker where it works fine: http://andrewgelman.com/ You know what the fundamental difference is? People around the world know who Andrew Gelman is. He legitimately is a big deal in his field - his name is synonymous with Bayesian inference. Furthermore, it's also a side project for him and borders on a personal hobby rather than his primary "work". Also note that he doesn't have a gratuitous illustration of his ugly mug on the front page. On the other hand, Stoeten is an uneducated, un-interesting small time blogger who just got fired. His name means nothing and to pretend it does is laughable.
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"AndrewStoeten.com" - That's seriously what he f***ing called his new site? What an insufferable prick.
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Andy Dalton with a 4.3 QBR performance last night. Nice job Andy.
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Baseball America: Blue Jays top-10 prospects
Nox replied to Angrioter's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
The context of their future team is pretty irrelevant when doing prospect rankings. You may not like his fit on this particular roster but that shouldn't degrade his prospect "grade" or whatever. -
Phil is great. Random social science "analyst", not so much. http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/10/do-baseball-salaries-have-precious.html
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Blue Jays claim Justin Smoak off waivers.
Nox replied to Terminator's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Smoak isn't very good. Why does this team like players who aren't very good? Probably because the general manager isn't very good. -
Joke's on you. In RL I'm actually Magic Johnson.
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Not a huge loss really. They'll hire someone smart and open-minded, a pool from which not too many other teams like to draw from. Losing Friedman was a much bigger blow.
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Maybe slightly. Maybe. More likely though (IMO) would be that model error of such fine-grained variance tweaking would just lead to sub-optimal results. A basic heuristic of "No teammates" might be useful if it doesn't reduce your mean by any more than 5% or something (just spit-balling).
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For 50-50/double up/headsup games, you're looking to maximize your mean projected points. For games with different payout structures (like a triple up/quadruple up), a lineup with the highest mean projected points is often times not the optimal play. In those formats, you want to seek higher variance lineup combinations (Selecting teammates/linemantes is the easiest way to do this...QB/WR combos in football). The reason for this simply is that payoffs are not symmetrical. A really bad result pays the same as a league average result ($0). You're interested in maximizing the probability that a high variance event will happen for your team, even if it degrades the expected mean points of your team for a given night.
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Ok Randy Tabler fan.
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Well then. Best Jays news in years!
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Beeston on the Fan - You know Payroll is going higher in 2015
Nox replied to TDotttt2005's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
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Sure, but how would you project his rate of in tight shots going forward? It's far more nuianced than looking at the past distribution. I guess you haven't watched TSN lately .
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If the Sens' dmen can't move the puck, then why were they able to post better than average even strength shot/possesion numbers last year? I'm not saying I love the Sens projection either, but it might be picking up on something (and then possibly over-amplifying the effect). Regardless it's something a little different than the "Team A will be bad because they had low points last year herp derp" that you tend to hear from mainstream media.
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There's a post saying the team level projections haven't been tested out of sample. But the underlying player projections have been. Said article also mentions what the model might be picking up on in terms of Ottawa's results in the past.
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http://www.danglefactory.com/projections/standings Uhoh Habs.
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Stamkos became a monk and moved to Tibet. You'll probably want to release him before we start.
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Cry me a god damned river. You won last year lol. You're going to spend $102 on Jeff Carter and you're going to like it.
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Yup, these are nuts. They have 12 guys with the line set over 80 points. There were only 5 guys last year to go over 80. Keep in mind, the 5 that went over 80 most likely benefited from above average luck as well. You wouldn't project more than 2 or 3 to go over 80 this year.
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Some of those Bodog player props are insane. Patrick Kane for example: 82.5 points. That's better than a point per game IF (and that's a giant if) we project perfect health for the season. Patrick Kane has not averaged a point per game in his career. Patrick Kane has not averaged a point per game over the past 3 years combined.