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BTS

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Everything posted by BTS

  1. BTS
    Yeah. It's hard to see a situation where Shapiro and Atkins don't feel pressure to actually make the playoffs in 2025. I think we'll see them sell just about everything on the farm that has value (which isn't a whole lot) and some big FA splurges if they can find fits. I think they're desperate, and will make desperation moves.
  2. BTS
    I think I might be more concerned about the pitching than the lineup, as far as the biggest hurdles to competing in 2025. There are a lot of interesting/useful pieces for the lineup. A few smart additions could make it decent, in similar ways to the way the Rays/As/Giants have pieced together boring but slightly above average lineups in recent years. The Jays have three pitchers who are locked into rotation spots next year, and they might not be good at all: Gausman's stuff has backed up to the point where it's below average (95 Stuff+), and he has an xERA over 5 in a full season of work so far. Berrios has been throwing slop all year, and looks like a fringe MLB starter. And then Bassitt is Bassitt. Lock in the 2-3 WAR, because he is a machine.
  3. BTS
    The HoF voters need to get their act together and induct him already.
  4. BTS
    Trevor Rogers blows
  5. BTS
    Grade 3 strain. He'll miss the rest of the regular season, and likely the entire playoffs.
  6. BTS
    I remember the 2-3 week stretch in April or May where Varsho was one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Just hitting nuke after nuke. That was fun.
  7. BTS
    I'm a bit concerned that Ross Stripling will end the Sox losing streak tonight
  8. BTS
    Ernie Clement and IKF are tied for 4th in fWAR among the team's reliever this year. Among players still on the team, Chad Green and Ryan Burr are tied for first in relief fWAR with 0.1.
  9. BTS
    -1.6 fWAR too. Pretty easily the worst bullpen in baseball so far this season.
  10. BTS
    Cavan Biggio has been DFA'd by the Dodgers
  11. BTS
    On the other hand, it’s Oakland. They’d probably trade him for Clement, Francis, and 2 years of discounted Rogers internet
  12. BTS
    Varsho is interesting. It's like the pre-season model didn't have enough data to take his defensive stats at face value, then he passed certain thresholds this season allowing the RoS model to properly value that part of his game.
  13. BTS
    BTW, these were pre-season projections. Guys like Berrios, Bichette, Francis, Clase etc...project significantly worse via ZiPS RoS than they did preseason for 2025. Vlad projects better.
  14. BTS
    Haven't been watching much lately, but would have assumed he was in the 0.290-0.300 range again this year. 0.255 was shocking.
  15. BTS
    Holy crap, I just realized that Varsho has the worst xwOBA of the 186 hitters with at least 300 PA this season (0.255).
  16. BTS
    Since last August Bo has a sub-80 wRC+ and has hit the IL 4 times with issues with his right leg. He's been replacement level for a calendar year in part because he's been physically compromised. He also seems completely checked out. Are both of those problems going to resolve themselves this offseason? I dunno - a lot has to go right for Bo to put up a 4 WAR season again for the Toronto Blue Jays
  17. BTS
    lol, OK good talk
  18. BTS
    Yeah, I think we can basically write Bo off as an above-average player on this team. With the way he sulked through the season, openly mused about being traded, and apparently refuses to entertain an extension I don't even think he'll be here next year.
  19. BTS
    And there's usually a base of talent to dream on. This year there isn't. The offense is Vlad and a bunch of guys you hope can be league average. The pitching is Gausman and a couple of shitballers. The team is -85 after today's game. How bad will it get? -150? This team f***ing sucks.
  20. BTS
    I think it's easy to miss how bad the pitching situation is because we're used to those names being good and reliable. But at this point Gausman will be 34 on opening day, has taken a step back and now looks more like a #2. Bassitt will be 36 and is an inning eating shitballer in the mold of a Kyle Gibson. Berrios might not even be an MLB-caliber starter anymore. There are no prospects on the horizon ready step in as depth. It's Bloss and Rodriguez, then zero organizational depth. Going into 2024, it was "well, we might not be able to score, but the pitching and defense is elite". Well now we still can't score but have, like, bottom 5 pitching.
  21. BTS
    I think it’s worse than middling. They’re at a -79 run differential. Likely to finish at around -120. They’re basically the Angels. Seriously - look at the results this year, and their respective rosters going into the offseason. It looks like what the Angels have.
  22. BTS
    Yup. Some teams might have sent him home and used the rotation spot on projects with some upside. But the Nats have sent him out there to get annihilated for half a decade. It's almost like they're punishing him. His contract is finally up after the season.
  23. BTS
    Patrick Corbin gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 3 innings tonight. I wonder if this will finally be the start that actually causes the Nationals to release him.
  24. BTS
    I'm scared that's the actual plan. Because it's the only way to add the wins they need to get close to a WC spot in 2025.
  25. BTS
    I think the rotation is a major problem right now. For a team looking to contend, it's set up something like: 1. ??? 2. Gausman (3-4 WAR projection) 3. ??? 4. Bassitt (2-3 WAR projection) 5. Berrios (1-2 WAR projection) ---- Rodriguez (long-man and spot starter) Bloss (AAA) And then basically org depth beyond that. They kind of need to be in the mix for a Fried/Snell/Burnes if they want to take a shot at the playoffs. And then add depth. Then probably 2-3 bats of the caliber of Kim/Bregman/Adames/Alonso/Walker/Teo. And then a a bullpen and legit platoon partner for Kirk. It's about as clear a retool/rebuild situation as there is in baseball IMO.
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