BTS

From MLBTR this morning: “It could be that the Jays’ deliberate methods of pursuing and evaluating every possible arm on the market are leaving them behind other teams who make a more direct push for a specific pitcher at the top of their list. In the view of one agent, talks with the Blue Jays “are 90 per cent due diligence that doesn’t go anywhere.” “

Not to mention, maybe one of the better catching tandems in baseball. The bats have massive upside as soon as 2020.

If Jacob deGrom is healthy this year, his pre-2019 extension is going to end up costing him over $100M.

It's a moot point anyway, because teams don't liquidate good prospects to shed salary. IIRC the only time it's ever really happened was when Arizona gave Atlanta Toussaint to eat Bronson Arroyo's contract.

Oakland won 68, 69, and 75 games from 2015 to 2017. People were wondering out loud if Billy Beane had lost it. They then put up consecutive 97-win seasons. The Rays were under 0.500 for 4 straight years. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but they've won 90 and 96 games the last two years. The Twins lost 103 games in 2016. The last three years they've won 85, 78, and 101 games. The Cubs won 73 games in 2014. They gave Jon Lester a big contract that offseason, even though everyone thought they were a couple years from contention. They won 97 games the following year and the WS in 2016. The Braves won 72 games in 2017. Nobody saw them as contenders in 2018, but their young guys pushed and they've won consecutive division titles. The point I'm trying to make is that this team isn't Miami or Baltimore. There is a plethora of very talented MLB-ready talent. It wouldn't be that surprising if the lineup, supplemented by a piece or two this offseason, ends up being one of the better groups of position players in baseball this year. It's not the most likely outcome, but it wouldn't be shocking in the same way it would be shocking if Baltimore ended up having top-10 lineup. If you have an opportunity to add 2020 wins while subtracting nothing from the future, you do it. There is no reason to sit on a 70M payroll in 2020 if there are opportunities to add 30M in short-term deals that pushes the win projection up by 4-5. Probably it won't have playoff implications. But there's a small chance that it could. Winning 83 games on a 70M payroll should be a fireable offense.

The Monstars are surprisingly good given that I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing. I'm beginning to suspect that you guys also have no idea about basketball.

A few comments: 1. He's not owed 45M. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/chicago-cubs/ He's owed: - 15M 2020 salary - 10M buyout on his 2021 vesting option - a 2.5M signing bonus on December 31st, and 10M next September He's owed 37.5M 2. I don't understand why you're resistant to the idea that Lester's 2020 season is worth close to 20M. It's a rubber arm that's a good bet for 2-3 wins and we just saw Hamels get 18M. I think it would be pretty silly to be upset if the team signed a free agent Lester for 1/18. And that would still leave team payroll at like 90M. If Ryu actually wants to play here, they could add him too. 3. This conversation is silly because the framework of the deal clearly makes sense. The question to be addressed is how much of the signing bonuses and buyout Chicago would pay down, and what the sweetener is for Toronto. If the structure of the deal is Lester + Davis + cash for a fringe guy without value, the deal ranges from great to terrible depending on how much cash is coming Toronto's way. If the Cubs are paying down the entire 22.5M in bonus/buyout cash and Toronto is only on the hook for his 15M salary, the deal is a heist. If the Cubs don't pay anything and Toronto is on the hook for 37.5M, the deal is bad: they'd be paying like 20M for Brennan Davis. Somewhere in the middle there might be common ground. Or maybe not.

How many FA starters are clearly better than Jon Lester? Just Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu?

Cole Hamels and Jon Lester are the same player and Hamels just got 18M for 1 year. Lester looks like a 7M overpay if you take on his 2020 salary (15M) and buyout (10M), and a 17M overpay if you also take on the 10M signing bonus he's due next year. Davis is clearly worth 7M. If the Cubs were inclined to make this deal, the only actual question should be how much of that 10M signing bonus would Toronto be willing to pay down to facilitate a deal.

I think he's still worth it. Lester is overpaid by what? 5-7M? That's not too much cash to pay for Brennan Davis.

Lester isn't nothing. He'd get 15-20M on a 1-year deal if he were a FA. He's very unlikely to hit 200 IP, so you're pay 25M for one season of Lester (15M salary and 10M buyout), and upgrade from Alford to Brennan. It would be a good use of money IMO.

If Lester is good enough to pitch 200 innings you'd maybe prefer to pay him 25M to pitch in 2021 than 10M to go away.

Just came here to ask how much of Darvish’s 4/81 people would take on. You’d probably get him for nothing if you ate the entire deal.

This pleases me

Your posts have been even more terrible than usual this offseason. I recommend a valium.

Is Alex Wood healthy (at least ostensibly)? Signing him and limiting him to two times through as a long guy after someone like Font could work out very well.

I don’t really consider Pineda a big miss. He was good in 2019, but the fastball velo is down several ticks, and he’s fat now and had knee, and I think minor arm issues last year. He’s also out until mid-May. I wouldn’t have minded him at 2/20, but I don’t think it’s a steal or anything.

Did he have a strong handshake?

Leafs have quit on Keefe. Who's next in line?

Free agents almost always go to the highest bidder. I don't think many people will care about being a bid high on the $/WAR projections or whatever if the player is a good fit.

They're saying the right things. Now Ross has to put his big boy pants on and get a deal done.

I just looked up Grichuk's xwOBA thinking he probably under-performed it, but he actually beat it by a hair. His DRS was also 10 runs worse than his UZR. He probably wasn't even as good as his 0.5 fWAR

I was just responding to you saying that Corbin and Wheeler were the same pitcher last year. But yeah, you're mostly right. If I'm committing to Zack Wheeler for 5 years I'm probably not assuming he takes a leap forward in his age-30 season.

That's only true of you look at FIP-based WAR and think Wheeler has a sticky skill set for suppressing homeruns on flyballs. If I had to give one of the two a CY vote for 2019 it would be Corbin without really thinking twice.

5/118 + the comp pick value. Hard pass.