Bloody hell. Working on an Excel program to automatically work with and easily reference all fangraphs stats from their export data feature. They use the same column headers FB% for fly ball percentage and fastball percentage... Guess I should be calculating a good portion of the stats rather than straight importing them.
Looks like my BA and OBP are a little higher, but the rest of the numbers are pretty much in line with Steamer and Oliver.
[TABLE=class: cms_table]
[TR]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD] Innings[/TD]
[TD] W[/TD]
[TD] S[/TD]
[TD] HLD[/TD]
[TD]K[/TD]
[TD] K/BB[/TD]
[TD] ERA[/TD]
[TD] OBPA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hisashi Iwakuma[/TD]
[TD] 204[/TD]
[TD] 13[/TD]
[TD] 0[/TD]
[TD] 0[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD] 3.05[/TD]
[TD] 3.23[/TD]
[TD] 0.296[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
It's worth mentioning (as JFaS kind of pointed out) that I'm not scaling to a player changing teams, and I'm not adjusting the regression mean to the player's park.
3 years of data. No specific adjustments to BABIP or park factors (I'll manually place Cano a little lower for example). I am however regressing all the categories to the mean for each player's position (to the equivalent of 2100 PA, and only factoring in full time players), and weighted to favor most recent season. Players also get an age scaling.
Definitely some interesting stuff in there, especially regarding blackouts with games and Chapman and Tanaka (sounds like we definitely had interest in him, since they mentioned him specifically with regards to having an impact on sales).
My guess at what will happen:
Sign Ubaldo, Trade Buehrle and Santos, Acquire an outfielder, 2nd baseman, and pitcher.
What I want to happen:
Sign Ubaldo AND Burnett, trade Janssen/Santos + Izzy + Happ, acquire Ackley or Franklin
I think we'd have to kick in a little more, but I could see them having some interest in someone like Happ since I doubt they'll really want 2 rookies in the rotation to start off the year.
Hard to argue with this!
I wouldn't be surprised to see multiple signings and multiple players traded in the next two weeks. I could easily see us pull off trades with both the Dodgers and the Mariners.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Saunders put up a 120ish RC+ next year, and a move to a corner outfield spot probably puts him slightly plus defensively. He's also controllable for the next 3 years, and we're gonna have outfield issues in 2015.
Anyhow, everyone needs to have one or two factually unsupportable breakout candidates or they aren't real fans
I still think he's a big breakout candidate, but yeah I did draft him too high. Also, I don't think Seattle wants to trade Ackley (and certainly wouldn't trade both).