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NorthOf49

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Everything posted by NorthOf49

  1. NorthOf49
    Right, Reyes and Buehrle are overpaid but at least they're producing enough to stay in their roles. I don't know how someone can look at this team and say Reyes is a problem worth discussing. This is a team that has been playing replacement level players at second base, all three outfield spots and at the back of the rotation for significant stretches of the season. The attention should be on why the back end of the roster is so devoid of talent and how that can be remedied.
  2. NorthOf49
    Great response from Jose. Howarth's attacks have been bizarre.
  3. NorthOf49
    Going into the season, I was a little worried about Shields' changeup SwStr%, as it had declined every year since 2010 and wasn't great last year (16.3%). The changeup has always been his signature pitch and he wasn't able to lean on it as much. But this year, changeup SwStr% has jumped to a career high and Shields is also throwing a knockout curve for the first time and getting great fastball whiffs too. All of his pitches are suddenly much better; he's generating an absurd 14.0% SwStr% overall and still throwing a ton of strikes and has an average-ish batted ball distribution. It's a beautiful thing.
  4. NorthOf49
    The xFIP- leaderboard is a Who's Who of pitchers Dinger has doubted/traded: 2. Chris Archer 4. Michael Pineda 6. Carlos Carrasco 7. Danny Salazar (8. Chris Sale) 10. Jake Arrieta 13. Dallas Keuchel 16. Clay Buchholz 19. James Shields
  5. NorthOf49
    That's very good. And yet, not exceptional: Chris Sale, last month: 63 xFIP- Carlos Carrasco, 2015: 65 xFIP-
  6. NorthOf49
    Trumbo didn't fit into their team with Jake Lamb coming back and they got some young talent. They didn't get enough though and Vidal Nuno is useful too. Mark Trumbo was born to be a Mariner. Jack-Z is probably the most predictable GM around.
  7. NorthOf49
    I remember after the initial draft you said you weren't interested in shortstop help because Lindor would be up soon. Still waiting haha. Crawford is really promising.
  8. NorthOf49
    It isn't obvious and the burden of proof is on you. Whether a player makes soft contact affects BABIP.
  9. NorthOf49
    It isn't obviously comprised of good pitchers though. You will need to be much more rigorous to disprove DIPS than by just saying a bunch of names around the top of a leaderboard are good pitchers. Of course soft% has to do with whether the ball is in play lol. You can't get soft contact unless the ball is put in play.
  10. NorthOf49
    Yes, I grabbed him in the initial MiLB draft. Thought he was an okay buy-low at the time. Should be interesting.
  11. NorthOf49
    Yep. You can look at stabilization rates here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14293 No you didn't. You posted a leaderboard that showed that some pitchers who are having great 2015s are generating good soft%'s. This is where Olerud's correlation-causation thing comes in. Pitchers are having good years because they are generating soft contact. That they are great is not the driver of both soft% and overall production. Of course BABIP and soft% are related. Pitchers have almost no control over BABIP because they can't control their quality of contact.
  12. NorthOf49
    Breaking Blue gets hits from that site with every article, since it aggregates automatically. Pretty neat resource.
  13. NorthOf49
    His only flaws are that he recently sat out nearly three years recovering from elbow injuries. A very effective reliever.
  14. NorthOf49
    I remember you supported my Cishek > Hector Rondon argument in LOD. Ugh. I still believe in the skills though. He'll be back.
  15. NorthOf49
    I would try to poach Steve Cishek from the Marlins for nothing.
  16. NorthOf49
    There isn't that much public evidence supporting certain mechanical positions being significant harbingers of injury. The more notable thing with Hoffman is that he's already blown out. Not good even if he recovers completely.
  17. NorthOf49
    You have yet to prove that conventional pitchers control quality of contact at any meaningful level. BABIP takes eight seasons to stabilize to an R of .50 R for a starting pitcher.
  18. NorthOf49
    Bautista is beating though. He has a 140 wRC+.
  19. NorthOf49
    Just IL him, he's clearly trolling. Gruber is at least somewhat sincere.
  20. NorthOf49
    He can gain experience at AA. Results matter in the major leagues, where each marginal win is worth $7MM.
  21. NorthOf49
    Finally someone other than Donaldson drives in some runs lol.
  22. NorthOf49
    I thought you said that because they ended the inning on some dumb sequence and I missed it, leading to the commercial break lol. Nolasco coming out?
  23. NorthOf49
    Colabello has no athleticism. He's just a random 31 year old dude wandering around. Lind and Thames were somewhat manageable.
  24. NorthOf49
    If Colabello had a great arm, he could have maybe had a play at the plate. The ball was hit hard so the runner may not have gotten a great jump off third. Not entirely meaningless. Career -48.8 UZR/150 (404 innings). He is really really bad out there.
  25. NorthOf49
    Correlation? That's just a leaderboard with a spread fully explained by random variation. The leader this year, Dallas Keuchel, has a career 18.8% Soft%; I don't know how you can say he has the soft contact skill.
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