George Springer's Recent Resurgence Is More Complicated Than It Looks

[Jesse Burrill]

George Springer takes some wild swings.

There have been several moments over the past month when Springer has loaded up at the plate, taken a big swing, and fallen over or gone down to one knee after coming up empty. But those wild swings aren’t limited to the batter's box; his offensive profile has fluctuated from season to season and month to month.

His last three seasons are a perfect example of that. Springer has gone from a player who looked like his skills were declining at a rapid pace to bouncing back and having a career season at age 35, finishing third in the majors in wRC+. Even in his 2026 season, the Blue Jays have seen a bit of both of those players:

For most players in baseball history, declining rapidly as they approach their mid-30s has been a sign that the end is closer than we think. Father Time is undefeated, after all.

So which George Springer is the real George Springer?

First, his 2025 season wasn’t a fluke. It was a true resurgence in every way. He led the team in wRC+, home runs, fWAR, and even stolen bases. He went back to mashing the fastball, and his contributions helped push the Blue Jays all the way back to the World Series.

Then 2026 started, and the narrative shifted. Springer started ice cold; he posted a wRC+ of 97 in March/April and then just 75 in May. All the skills that made him look like an elite hitter seemed to have suddenly disappeared:

• His OPS dropped (.956 →.648)
• His xwOBA dropped (.404 → .304)
• His chase rate rose (20.4% → 27.9%)
• His walks dropped (11.8%→8.6%) and strikeouts rose (18.9%→19.4%)

It started to feel like this was the real George Springer, and 2025 was starting to feel like a distant memory, raising concerns about the veteran slugger's performance.

There are many reasons a hitter could go into a massive slump: age finally catching up, confidence being shot, issues outside the diamond, or injuries. Many things can affect a person's performance at work, and baseball players are no exception.

Springer dealt with a toe injury in April that kept him on the IL for 17 days, which likely explains part of his early-season struggles. He also went on paternity leave on July 1, stepping away from the team for several days as he and his family welcomed their new child.

Maybe it comes down to finally being healthy, or maybe it's his newfound dad strength. But George Springer has found his groove again.

Since the All-Star break, Springer's stats have soared. His .867 OPS is second on the team. His .376 wOBA is also second on the team. And while the 29.9% chase rate is still high, it's second-best among qualified Blue Jays hitters. The walks have remained roughly the same, but the strikeouts have dropped to 15.2% from 20.1% in the first half.

So what exactly has led to the turnaround?

The first place to look is his swing decisions. Springer's swing rate has risen in the second half (47.8% to 49.7%). However, he was swinging a lot in April and May when he was struggling (51.1% in both months), so his increased swing rate is not directly correlated with his success. The more likely explanation is that he’s swinging more at pitches over the heart of the plate, and he’s making more contact on those pitches when he does swing:

When hitters make contact on pitches at the heart of the zone, they're hitting .346 league-wide, with a .607 slugging percentage and a .403 wOBA. It's generally a good idea to swing more often at pitches over the middle of the plate, and that’s exactly what Springer has been doing lately.

Swinging at the pitches you can do more damage with is always a good idea, but quality of contact matters too. You can make all the right decisions, but if you're hitting soft groundballs or routine flyballs, that doesn't help at all.

In July, it looked like the resurgence was officially back on. Springer made a change in his approach: he started swinging more at pitches over the heart of the plate, chased pitches out of the zone less, and had his best month in terms of quality of contact:

Metric	April	May	June	July
Heart Swing%	77.1%	80.2%	75.0%	81.7%
Heart BIP/Swings	42.6%	50.6%	44.8%	55.2%
Chase Swing%	19.0%	15.4%	15.5%	10.5%
Avg. Exit Velocity	88.2	87.6	88.8	90.6
Hard-Hit%	42.2%	35.4%	36.8%	48.1%
Barrel%	8.9%	7.6%	5.9%	9.3%

If Springer had simply posted a 147 wRC+ in July while his underlying metrics looked the same, then it could be dismissed as just a hot month, but almost every indicator of his process improved significantly. His improvement wasn’t isolated to just one statistic. His approach, contact, swing speed, and batted-ball profile all moved in the same direction. It was starting to look like 2025 George Springer was back.

In August, the surface-level numbers would back that up: an .858 OPS, a 141 wRC+, nine extra-base hits, and even four stolen bases to boot, but while the results were good, the peripheral data tell a different story.

The hard contact, which spiked in July and was key to his 2025 success, took a step back. His bat speed dropped from 74.0 mph down to 72.8, and with it, so did the exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate:

Pair the lower quality of contact with the fact that he’s been putting the ball on the ground much more often (his GB rate is up from 38.9% to 50.7%), and it doesn't look good for Springer. Softer contact and balls pounded into the dirt don't usually lead to a successful stat line.

The key to Springer's success may have less to do with how he’s hitting the ball and more to do with what happens after he makes contact. His BABIP jumped from .280 in July all the way to .373 in August, meaning far more of his batted balls were falling in for hits despite the decline in quality of contact. It was happening against various pitch types, too:

Aside from a massive spike in May against off-speed pitches, Springer's BABIP was dramatically higher in August. Given the decline in his quality of contact, the elevated BABIP explains why his surface-level stats remain elevated.

There’s more that goes into BABIP than simply balls finding holes. Line drives are harder to catch and typically produce higher BABIPs, but that doesn’t explain Springer’s August spike. His line drive rate jumped to 22.2% in July when his BABIP was .280, before falling back to 15.9% in August when his BABIP soared to .373.

So if that’s not it, batted ball distribution may have an answer. But looking at that data, the numbers seem similar there too:

July:

• Pull: 37.0%
• Straightaway: 42.6%
• Oppo: 20.4%

August:

• Pull: 39.1%
• Straightaway: 39.1%
• Oppo: 21.7%

With his spray profile remaining relatively similar, this really feels like Springer’s hot August was being driven disproportionately by BABIP instead of improved contact quality, coming off a July in which his underlying contact numbers really did take a leap forward.

That said, this is more about looking forward than looking backward. The Blue Jays are playing winning baseball at the moment and find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race in the final month of the season. Springer’s August showed that his numbers can stay strong even when the underlying numbers aren’t, but July showed there is still another level to his game. 

The larger sample still suggests that Springer is more likely to be the player we’ve seen for most of the season than the one who put up a 147 wRC+ in July. But July provided real evidence that his first-half numbers didn’t tell the whole story.  The approach changed, the quality of contact improved, and for one month, he looked much more like the hitter who had a career year at age 35.

Even if the BABIP remains high, and history suggests his stats will regress to the mean, it doesn’t mean it's going to happen right away. There’s nothing that says regression is going to come for him tomorrow, and at the end of the day, whether a hit is a soft groundball that finds a hole or a 110+ mph rocket of a line drive, they’re essentially the same thing in the scorebook.

So even if the stat line (and the swings) still look wild at times, Springer’s bat is helping the Blue Jays win games right now, at a time the team needs it most. For a team fighting for its playoff life, that's all that matters.

This article was written prior to the Blue Jays' game on Friday, September 4.

 

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