Shape of the Blue Jays: Kirk, Miles, Schneider

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

All stats entering July 23, 2026.

Quick Hits: Arjun Nimmala

• Everyone in this organization is starved for anything to be optimistic about, so here's one: Arjun Nimmala is heating up in Double-A New Hampshire. He got promoted to the Fisher Cats for the first time in May before a hamstring injury cost him most of June and necessitated a rehab stint back in the lower levels. In 25 Double-A games, he's hitting .289/.373/.456 with three homers. On Wednesday night, he hit a 432-foot no-doubter... to the opposite field.
• Nimmala's strikeout and contact rates (23.5% K, 73.9% contact) hold up compared to what he was doing in High-A Vancouver (22.9% K, 71.3% contact), a good sign that he's not being overmatched by the better pitching in the Eastern League.
• Baseball America recently updated their top 100 list after the draft, and despite the addition of a few marquee 2026 first-rounders to the rankings, Nimmala still places 39th. It's all but certain the Blue Jays won't have anything to play for in the season's final months, so they'll likely be deliberate when it comes to promoting him (as they should be). A debut at some point in 2027, though, seems feasible.

Alejandro Kirk

When I last checked in on Alejandro Kirk, he was finishing up a very quiet first month back from his thumb injury (44 wRC+ in June). He was hitting way too many balls at suboptimal angles while also chasing everything, a trend that has ravaged the entire lineup and likely killed the Jays' season. Lately, he has turned things around, becoming the only Blue Jay with a wRC+ over 120 in July (min. 40 PA). A 17.8% walk rate is the driving force behind the improvement, but even the swing itself is getting closer to how it looked when he was at his best.

Alejandro Kirk Key Indicators, 2025 vs July 2026 (Statcast)

Sample	Chase%	Zone Swing%	Hard-Hit%	Groundball%	Bat Speed	Swing Length (')
2025	29.1%	65.8%	50.8%	44.2%	72.5	7.2
July 2026	14.6%	55.8%	50.0%	41.2%	71.7	7.0

Four of his 16 hardest-hit balls of the season came against the Rays this week, another encouraging sign that things are trending upward. He's also gone back to using the whole field more often. Kirk's never going to be a high-BABIP guy because he lacks speed and an outlier ability to hit line drives, but the .224 mark he's at right now feels unsustainably low, and the projections at FanGraphs agree, as each of their models forecast a wRC+ between 108 and 117 for him the rest of the season. His zone swing rate is something to watch, as he's evidently become too passive with strikes, but I'm not sure if that's due to lingering effects of the injury or part of a general conviction to see more pitches.

Spencer Miles

Spencer Miles has continuously been one of the only redeeming features of this year's roster, and he continued his storybook season on Wednesday (3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 K, 0 BB). He threw the highest percentage of four-seamers and the lowest percentage of sinkers we've seen from him since early April. Metrically, the four-seamer isn't a great pitch, but the Rays are 29th in MLB in rate-based run value against four-seam fastballs this year. He decided to pitch to his opponent's weakness, and it worked.

Because the sinker has been the focal point of Miles's gameplan for months now, Tampa Bay's hitters probably weren't expecting to see the four-seamer much, and the numbers back that up. The four-seamer, which sits 96 mph with movement patterns that are quite predictable relative to his arm angle, got five whiffs on 10 swings and a 30% chase rate. Miles is in line to pitch once more before the trade deadline, and if the Jays sell, I'd hope to see them be a tad more careful with his workload in August and September. If they're going to bounce back in 2027, he's going to be part of that solution.

Davis Schneider

In case you're new here, the format of this column alternates every week. One week, I'll profile two pitchers and one position player, and the next it'll be two position players and one pitcher. This is a two-position-player-week, but I cannot bring myself to profile anyone who has been a part of this league-worst offense besides Kirk, so let's take a look instead at Davis Schneider, who was called back up to the majors in advance of Thursday afternoon's game. Schneider made some waves for his objectively hilarious stat line a few games into his first demotion to Triple-A Buffalo, which effectively demonstrated the complete lack of hittable pitches he was given in the International League. He's now played 30 games there on the season, and the numbers are still pretty weird.

Davis Schneider Key Indicators, Triple-A Buffalo, 2026 (Statcast)

Zone%	43.8%
Zone Contact%	86.8%
Zone Swing%	57.4%
Chase%	16.8%
K%	20.2%
BB%	30.2%
Hard-Hit%	31.0%
EV90	101.5
Fly EV	88.5

No, that isn't a typo. He actually walked 30% of the time, which is what happens when a guy sees this many pitches out of the zone and chases less than Juan Soto. I'm most encouraged by the mid-80s zone contact rate because of his struggles to get bat on ball earlier this season. The quality of contact wasn't great, but the way he was pitched definitely had something to do with that, especially given the small sample. He's deserving of another shot and should be motivated by the chance to secure an extended stay with Jonatan Clase hitting the IL.

View full article